Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, (Region 3 in Portland)
Why UConn will win: The Huskies have three seniors --
Paige Bueckers,
Aaliyah Edwards and
Nika Muhl -- who have been on this stage (and bigger) before and were on the team last year when UConn was stunned by Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Even if it was to a different opponent, the pain of that loss in this round is still fresh on their minds, only further motivating the Huskies heading into Saturday. Bueckers might be having the best postseason of any player in the nation, and with her well-rounded impact on the game will do whatever it takes to get UConn one step closer to Cleveland. She doesn't have to do it alone, either, with strong starts to postseason play from Edwards and freshman
Ashlynn Shade.
Why Duke will win: The Blue Devils boast one of the best defenses in the country, a unit that can cause fits for UConn's offense. They haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 63 points since Feb. 19. While they didn't have a ton of consistent offensive firepower during the regular season, they now have one of the hottest players in the tournament in junior
Reigan Richardson, who's averaging 12.4 points per game on the season but scored 25 and 28 points against Richmond and Ohio State, respectively. Duke's prowess on the offensive glass, spurred by freshman
Oluchi Okananwa, also gives the Blue Devils an edge over an opponent with a dearth of frontcourt options.
What's the X factor: Syracuse did a good job for the most part of neutralizing UConn's post play. Can Duke do the same? The Blue Devils allow just 23.4 points in the paint per game and have posts
Kennedy Brown (6-6) and
Camilla Emsbo (6-5) protecting the rim (the team averages 5.6 rejections per game). Edwards is one of the top players left in the tournament, and last time these two programs met in November 2022, she tallied 17 points and 11 rebounds. --
Philippou
Which team will advance?
Adelson: UConn 66, Duke 60
Creme: UConn 70, Duke 56
Pelton: UConn 71, Duke 60
Philippou: UConn 67, Duke 59
Voepel: UConn 79, Duke 65