Game analysis - UConn vs Xavier

[cferraro04]

Today was opening day for the CT General Assembly...I had to get up at 7:00 to get there by 8:00 am. I love opening day...so much enthusiasm, so much promise...let's hope all that promise works out.

I will assume that we will once again be without the services of Caroline Ducharme and the ever talented Aubrey Griffin will pick up the slack in her absence. We can also hope that Azzi Fudd will finally see some minutes. In any case Xavier should not present too much of a problem for UConn. They will start 5'8", 5'10", 5'11", 6'0" and 6'1" While UConn will start 5'10", 6'1", 6'1", 6'3" and 6'5". This is a decisive height advantage for UConn. Coming off the bench Xavier's height issues don't get all that much better they bring 5'6", 5'11", 6'0" and 6'2" off the bench while UConn brings 5'8", 5'11" (if Azzi plays), 6'3" and 6'5" off the bench. It should be a difficult night for Xavier in the paint.

UConn may be a little tired after playing on the road at Butler and traveling to Xavier sleeping one night in the hotel and then playing again on the road.

Match-ups:

Nika Muhl vs Taylor Smith - Taylor is Xavier's 2nd most productive guard. She averages 11.9 points a game while hitting about 3 three pointers every two games or so. She is a decent rebounding guard grabbing 2.6 rebounds per game. Defensively she is a pretty good on-ball defender and manages to get 1.3 steals per game. However, Nika has been stepping it up on the offensive end lately, she averages 6.5 points and hits 1 three pointers per game. She is a tenacious rebounding guard grabbing 4.6 per game. Defensively, she is a pest getting 1.5 steals per game. But, where she impacts the game like no other player in WCBB is with her assists per game...she is always ready to distribute the basketball putting players in a position to be able to score her 9.3 assists per game accounts fo 20 of the huskies total output. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senachal vs Makayla Scarlett - Makayla is Xavier's most productive player averaging 12.9 points while hitting 2 threes per game, she grabs 3.6 rebounds, gets 3 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Lou is an amazing player having acquired her through the portal as a Graduate transfer she has surprised many with how quickly she has been able to assimilate into the UConn offense. During the absence of Azzi she has emerged as UConn's 2nd option. Lou averages 16.9 points per game while hitting nearly 3 three pointers per game. She grabs 2.8 rebounds and is a pretty good on ball defender herself. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin vs Fernanda OValle - Fernanda is a scrappy, strong athlete for Xavier she averages 10.3 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. Fernanda also contributes with 1.9 assists per game however, Aubrey is a super athlete...she averages 12.9 points and 7.3 rebounds. Additionally, Aubrey is quite disruptive on the defensive end. She is able to get 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey's speed, aggressiveness and basketball IQ really causes problems from opposing teams. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aliyah Edwards vs Aanaya Harris - plays the guard / forward position bringing a lot of versatility to Xavier. She averages 6.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. Aliyah will prove to just be too quick, too strong and too savvy a player for Aanaya. Look for Edwards to have a pretty good night scoring the basketball. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Dorka Juhasz vs Courtney Prenger - Courtney is a solid player for Xavier. She averages a solid 8.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game but she also impacts the game in all the other categories. She gets 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 blocks per game...she is a great on ball defender. However, Dorka is just too big for Courtney...Dorka's 6'5" Is an imposing height advantage. Dorka averages 12.6 points and 10.6 rebounds. She will be doo much for Courtney to handle in the paint. I look for a Dorka to have a big night at Xavier. With both Dorka and Edwards playing in the middle...even with limited minutes they will dominate the paint. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - Xavier will bring in 19.1 points and 18.5 rebounds off he bench to UConn's 7.2 points and 5.5 rebounds. Of course if Azzi plays she will change this dynamic...but as it stands now it would be hard not to give the: ADVANTAGE - XAVIER

Intangibles - Home court advantage, a tired UConn team on the road for their second game vs UConn's talent and height advantage - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Melanie Moore is a new head coach coming to Xavier from Michigan where she served as Associate head coach and helped Michigan to a 156 - 85 record under her watch. On the other hand, Geno, Chris, Jamelle and Morgan...just too good a coaching staff. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

 

[Next 12]

Your analysis is spot on and very enlightening. I agree with all your comments and I predict Uconn will hit 100 points in this game. The bench should have an opportunity to finally contribute to the scoring. GO HUSKIES!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again @cferraro04 for a fine analysis. I have been hoping Mel Moore would bring something new to Xavier, but it's been a slow start. Perhaps that's inevitable, given where they were when she got there. If I recall correctly, she kicked the two best players off the team her first year. That had to be hard to do for a new coach.

I wonder about one thing in your analysis -- you use the term "basketball IQ" to describe Aubrey, which may not be entirely apt. I love her game, so I have no criticism to offer about her. And if we think about defensive cleverness and resourcefulness, I'd have no hesitation to apply it to her in this sense -- she has a "high defensive basketball IQ." But the generic term seems mainly to highlight offensive talents like passing and moving with and without the ball, and especially ball handling, and in these areas, Aubrey is not who I mainly think of.

On offense, Aubrey is a tremendous slasher in the lane, she's a good offensive rebounder, and she runs the court better than anyone in D1, and her outside shooting (and especially her willingness to shoot) is notably improved over previous years. But she is not an intuitive (that's my new term) passer or ball handler -- she often picks up her dribble without knowing what she means to do with the ball and then the offense stalls until someone comes to bail her out.

As I said, I don't mean these as criticisms since Aubrey is a tremendous asset to the team. We shouldn't expect her to do things she's not good at. For example, I loved seeing Dorka sprint the length of the court with a steal, as she did against Butler, but this is not her primary skill and I wouldn't design an offensive set that depended on her being able to do that sort of thing. By contrast, our transition game can and should be based on Aubrey's ability to run the court with a steal or to get a long pass from Nika. This plays right into one of her signal strengths and no one else on the team can really do it as well... except maybe Aaliyah. I mean, obviously Azzi can, and we could probably ask Lou and Caroline to run the court on breaks, though it doesn't seem like the best use of their talents. Before Aubrey came back, Christyn was who mainly filled this role in the transition game.

Aubrey will pose problems for Xavier (and most teams we'll face) because of her great strength and speed, her ability to score in the lane, her much improved outside shooting, and her disruptiveness on defense. As a result, when teams try to cope with her, others will be left open and the whole team will work better.

 

[huskeynut]

Just one correction. No Geno on the bench. He is taking time away to get healthy. Return unknown.

But we have CD and all will be fine.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again @cferraro04 for a fine analysis. I have been hoping Mel Moore would bring something new to Xavier, but it's been a slow start. Perhaps that's inevitable, given where they were when she got there. If I recall correctly, she kicked the two best players off the team her first year. That had to be hard to do for a new coach.

I wonder about one thing in your analysis -- you use the term "basketball IQ" to describe Aubrey, which may not be entirely apt. I love her game, so I have no criticism to offer about her. And if we think about defensive cleverness and resourcefulness, I'd have no hesitation to apply it to her in this sense -- she has a "high defensive basketball IQ." But the generic term seems mainly to highlight offensive talents like passing and moving with and without the ball, and especially ball handling, and in these areas, Aubrey is not who I mainly think of.

On offense, Aubrey is a tremendous slasher in the lane, she's a good offensive rebounder, and she runs the court better than anyone in D1, and her outside shooting (and especially her willingness to shoot) is notably improved over previous years. But she is not an intuitive (that's my new term) passer or ball handler -- she often picks up her dribble without knowing what she means to do with the ball and then the offense stalls until someone comes to bail her out.

As I said, I don't mean these as criticisms since Aubrey is a tremendous asset to the team. We shouldn't expect her to do things she's not good at. For example, I loved seeing Dorka sprint the length of the court with a steal, as she did against Butler, but this is not her primary skill and I wouldn't design an offensive set that depended on her being able to do that sort of thing. By contrast, our transition game can and should be based on Aubrey's ability to run the court with a steal or to get a long pass from Nika. This plays right into one of her signal strengths and no one else on the team can really do it as well... except maybe Aaliyah. I mean, obviously Azzi can, and we could probably ask Lou and Caroline to run the court on breaks, though it doesn't seem like the best use of their talents. Before Aubrey came back, Christyn was who mainly filled this role in the transition game.

Aubrey will pose problems for Xavier (and most teams we'll face) because of her great strength and speed, her ability to score in the lane, her much improved outside shooting, and her disruptiveness on defense. As a result, when teams try to cope with her, others will be left open and the whole team will work better.

Not much I could disagree with in this post...as usual Bone Dog your post was thoughtful and well-reasoned.

 

[TeamFirst!]

I was a CW fan and Evina fan last year for sure and both were great players. Are we not in a situation though this year where Lou and Aubrey are having even better seasons? Basically no one would have projected that. And AE has clearly blossomed, Nika is vastly improved and Dorka is putting up better numbers as well. Azzi is playing like an AA and Caroline seems to be coming back. We have a huge hole in losing Paige and Ice but this team should have a strong chance to be final 4 yet again. I'm still concerned about our depth and injury risk but this is a great team.