Game Analysis - UConn vs Villanova

[cferraro04]

Okay...Villanova has Maddy Siegrist and we don't...that is a fair statement but unfortunately, Maddy can't do it all herself...especially against UConn's starting five. Villanova starts Maddy Siegrist 6'2", Lucy Olsen 5'9", Maddie Burke 6'0", Christine Dalce 6'2", Brooke Mullin 5'11"...(seems like they have an overabundance of Maddy(s) on that team....lol ). It should be pointed out that Bella Runyan and Brook Mullin are essentially the same player. Both are 5'11" guards. Their stats are very similar with Brooke being a slightly more productive player which is why she gets the start. Siegrist is a machine...she averages 28.5 points per game to go along with 9.6 rebounds. She averages more than 20 shots per game which is twice as many as the next player Lucy Olsen and 4 times as many as the third highest shot taker Maddie Burke. Quite simply the fire power drops off dramatically after Siegrist.

Dorka Juhasz vs Christina Dalce - Dorka has a 3 inch height advantage in this one. While Christina is Villanova's best defender in the paint...averaging 2 blocks per game she will have her hands full with the Dorka whose confidence is growing with each game. Dorka is the more productive player both in points and in rebounds...given her height advantage I don't see that changing in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Maddy Siegrist - Two well-oiled machines...should be an interesting match-up. Of course both Maddy and Aaliyah need to stay out of foul trouble if they are going to be major impact players in this game. Maddy has proven to be a scoring machine. Aaliyah works hard but, has also be a reliable scorer. Both players impact the game on the defensive end as well. As Maddy goes so will Villanova. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Aubrey Griffin vs Maddie Burke - Maddie is a good three point shooter...she averages 2.5 threes per game. Aubrey is going to have to step out and defend her or she will drain the three. Aubrey could end up being the Big East's defensive player of the year...so I expect that Maddie will have a tough day at the office. Aubrey is just too athletic and quick and I expect her to have a great game ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Brooke Mullin - You might as well say that this match-up will be 2 against one. Brooke and Bella will split the time at that position. The good news is that between the two of them they average 7.3 points and 5.2 rebounds...neither of them are a consistent 3 point threat. Lou has been on a tear of late...her three point shooting is team best averaging nearly three 3 pointers per game. As far of overall impact on the game... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Lucy Olsen - Lucy is Villanova's second highest scorer...she also pulls down 4 rebounds and gets 4.1 assists per game. While Nika is a pass first guard and only looks to shoot when left open...she can and does drive the basket and if she has a clear lane will take the lay-up. Still her scoring production is only half of Lucy's but her 9.1 assists per game makes her the most valuable player on the team. Defensively she is tough and will make Lucy's afternoon very difficult. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - While Villanova dresses 12 players and can bring 7 players off the bench there isn't a whole lot of production coming off Villanova's bench. All seven players combine for about 15 points per game. They do have some height on the bench...5'11", 5'10", 6'1", 6'0", 5'6", 6'4"and 6'0". However, even with all those players on the bench they combine for 8 rebounds per game and there is no reliable three point shooter coming off their bench. UConn's three bench players: Ayanna Patterson, Amari DeBerry and Ines Bettencourt average 8 points and 7 rebounds. It is unlikely that all 7 players will see playing time while our three players more than likely will... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Intangibles - Game is being played at our home away from home...Hartford...we should have a strong home crowd there. Our starting five are feeling the chemistry between them and it is gelling. UConn averages 11 more points per game, 6 more rebounds per game. Villanova has been taking care of the basketball better than most teams in the league...they only average 10.5 TOs. UConn is still being plagued with 16 plus TOs. The silver lining is that UConn scores 19.1 points off the TOs they create while Villanova scores 15.8 points off the turnovers they create. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Denise Dillon is in her third season at Villanova after a 17 year stint with Drexel. Her win loss record at Drexel was a respectable 329-204 and she led Drexel to 10 post season appearances. Under Dillon Villanova is 41 and 16. Complementing Dillon is Associate Coach Joe Mullaney who is in his 27the season at Villanova, prior to coaching at Villanova Joe was head coach for 12 seasons at St. John's University. Denise and Joe are unfortunately coaching against a legendary duo of Geno and Chris...with a supporting cast of Jamelle Elliot and Morgan Valley. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UCONN - 94
VILLANOVA - 62

MOV - 32

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! Always helpful for thinking about these games.

I expect Aubrey will guard Siegrist for part of the game. Maybe that will hold her under her season averages. But I also think Siegrist will probably have to guard Aaliyah at least part of the time. That might also tend to reduce Siegrist’s offensive production.

I’m intrigued by what you report about Dillon’s associate coach Joe Mullaney. This is her 3rd season and his 27th. She took over the job and kept him on. I wonder what sort of relationship they have.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again, Sensei! Always helpful for thinking about these games.

I expect Aubrey will guard Siegrist for part of the game. Maybe that will hold her under her season averages. But I also think Siegrist will probably have to guard Aaliyah at least part of the time. That might also tend to reduce Siegrist’s offensive production.

I’m intrigued by what you report about Dillon’s associate coach Joe Mullaney. This is her 3rd season and his 27th. She took over the job and kept him on. I wonder what sort of relationship they have.

Hmmmm, good question. Maybe someone more familiar with Villanova can weigh in on Dillon's and Mullaney's relationship.

 

[DEpup]

I think the strategy is pretty simple, of course challenging to execute shorthanded.

Deny Siegrist the ball with Aubrey face guarding and then bring the help from Aaliyah when Siegrist manages to get the ball. Keep Maddy at her average or less shots/points per game and make someone else score. It's not french cooking as the big man says.

Lou's challenge will be to make sure Burke doesn't become the alternative scorer.

Nika needs to hound, frustrate, and rush Olsen to disrupt the action they want in order to get Siegrist her shot. I suspect, early they'll try to just let Maddy bring up the ball to avoid this so Aubrey needs to do her thing to deny Siegrist the spots/shots she wants on the perimeter and mid range......

Dorka needs to be big to discourage shots around the rim and get defensive rebounds to complement Edwards/Aubrey being on Siegrist.

Of course the refs will have their say. If you get a group that calls a breeze on Siegrist a foul and ignores Lou being mauled then it could be close....

 

[VA Huskie]

As always, great analysis… thanks. One point you didn’t mention is the potential fatigue factor. We played a tough, emotional game on Thursday and Villanova has been off for a week. I still see us winning, but not by 32 points. Maybe half that.

 

[UConnCat]

I think Edwards will guard Siegrist. Putting Aubrey on her will leave Aaliyah guarding a smaller player on the perimeter. Aubrey will guard Burke who is a good 3-point shooter. I'm pretty sure Aaliyah guarded Siegrist in last year's BET and did a pretty good job.

A couple of things from last year's loss to Villanova and UConn's win in the Big East Tournament: First, in the loss UConn was out-rebounded 37-21. Liv didn't play and Dorka and Aaliyah were not very good, combining for 6 points and 3 rebounds. Not typos: 6 points and 3 rebounds combined. Azzi and Christyn carried UConn offensively. In the BET win in March, UConn out-rebounded Villanova 39-17. I guess a message was delivered and received.

Second, in the first game Villanova was led by Lior Garzon who made 5 threes and scored 19 points. Siegrist chipped in 17 points. In the BET game, Garzon shot 1-11 and scored 3 points. Again, a message was delivered and received. Siegrist led Villanova's scoring in that game with 16 points.

Garzon transferred after last season, leaving Villanova for Oklahoma State of all places.

Villanova is of course led by Siegrist who is terrific and very difficult to stop. She averages 28.5 ppg on 53% shooting and 40% 3FG. Again, I expect Aaliyah to get the defensive assignment. Olsen is a tall point guard who can get to the rim and is also a good 3-point shooter. Both Olsen and Burke shoot 43% on 3s. Burke is not comfortable putting the ball on the floor so hopefully Aubrey will stick with her on the perimeter. Villanova will spread the floor and force UConn to defend for most of the shot-clock. The defense will have to be patient and rebound Villanova's misses. Rebounding was a big problem in the loss last season.

Dalce and Siegrist are both 6-2. Villanova's tallest player (6-4 Swider) likely won't play. Dorka and Aaliyah should be able to score inside.

 

[dtbtbtb]

Keys: hold Maddie S. below her average and limit Villanova's 3's.

 

[huskyd]

No mention about fouls to give. Aaliyah will have to take care if she guards Siegrist not to accumulate fouls, something that has plagued Edwards in the past. Expect Geno to use some of Alana's fouls against Maddy. Same with Aubrey: she can't sit for long. Coach will have to balance his fouls to protect his really thin bench. (We may also see DeBerry play some for Aaliyah.) So: all together, there are perhaps 10 fouls to give (Amari + Alana).
PS/Thankfully, Geno's good at this stuff (heh, heh).

 

[Centerstream]

No mention about fouls to give. Aaliyah will have to take care if she guards Siegrist not to accumulate fouls, something that has plagued Edwards in the past. Expect Geno to use some of Alana's fouls against Maddy. Same with Aubrey: she can't sit for long. Coach will have to balance his fouls to protect his really thin bench. (We may also see DeBerry play some for Aaliyah.) So: all together, there are perhaps 10 fouls to give (Amari + Alana).
PS/Thankfully, Geno's good at this stuff (heh, heh).

By past, I guess you're referring to previous seasons. Aaliyah has played most games this season without getting into foul trouble. If Geno uses Amari or Ayanna to guard Siegrist, she most likely will light them up.
No disrespect intended towards Amari or Ayanna.

 

[JoePgh]

I watched in person the first half of the Villanova - Iowa State game in December at Mohegan Sun, since it followed immediately after UConn's game against Florida State. Villanova was not remotely competitive in the first half. The box score shows that Villanova trailed by 42-23 at halftime before (apparently -- I didn't see the second half) staging a bit of a comeback in the second half to lose by 74-62. Villanova shot 34% in that game and only 5-for-17 from the arc. They were outrebounded 42-25. They did have an advantage in turnovers (18 for Iowa State, just 7 for the Wildcats). Presumably that is why they were able to take approximately the same number of shots at Iowa State (62 vs. 60). All five of the Iowa State starters scored in double figures.

Maddy Siegrist scored 32 points and was 12-for-13 at the free throw line. She shot 9-for-22 overall and 2-for-5 from 3-point land. Did I mention that she also had 12 rebounds? Lucy Olsen had 14 points and was Villanova's only other double-figure scorer.

Villanova has beaten most Big East opponents by noticeably smaller margins than UConn has beaten those same opponents. For example, they beat Georgetown at home by 7 points, Butler at home by 10 points (compared to UConn's 40 points), St. John's at home by 3 points. They beat Marquette by only two points, but that was in Milwaukee.

Conclusion: Maddy Siegrist will be a handful, but this should not be a close game (any more than last year's game in the Big East tournament was).

 

[Next 12]

Okay...Villanova has Maddy Siegrist and we don't...that is a fair statement but unfortunately, Maddy can't do it all herself...especially against UConn's starting five. Villanova starts Maddy Siegrist 6'2", Lucy Olsen 5'9", Maddie Burke 6'0", Christine Dalce 6'2", Brooke Mullin 5'11"...(seems like they have an overabundance of Maddy(s) on that team....lol ). It should be pointed out that Bella Runyan and Brook Mullin are essentially the same player. Both are 5'11" guards. Their stats are very similar with Brooke being a slightly more productive player which is why she gets the start. Siegrist is a machine...she averages 28.5 points per game to go along with 9.6 rebounds. She averages more than 20 shots per game which is twice as many as the next player Lucy Olsen and 4 times as many as the third highest shot taker Maddie Burke. Quite simply the fire power drops off dramatically after Siegrist.

Dorka Juhasz vs Christina Dalce - Dorka has a 3 inch height advantage in this one. While Christina is Villanova's best defender in the paint...averaging 2 blocks per game she will have her hands full with the Dorka whose confidence is growing with each game. Dorka is the more productive player both in points and in rebounds...given her height advantage I don't see that changing in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Maddy Siegrist - Two well-oiled machines...should be an interesting match-up. Of course both Maddy and Aaliyah need to stay out of foul trouble if they are going to be major impact players in this game. Maddy has proven to be a scoring machine. Aaliyah works hard but, has also be a reliable scorer. Both players impact the game on the defensive end as well. As Maddy goes so will Villanova. ADVANTAGE - VILLANOVA

Aubrey Griffin vs Maddie Burke - Maddie is a good three point shooter...she averages 2.5 threes per game. Aubrey is going to have to step out and defend her or she will drain the three. Aubrey could end up being the Big East's defensive player of the year...so I expect that Maddie will have a tough day at the office. Aubrey is just too athletic and quick and I expect her to have a great game ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Brooke Mullin - You might as well say that this match-up will be 2 against one. Brooke and Bella will split the time at that position. The good news is that between the two of them they average 7.3 points and 5.2 rebounds...neither of them are a consistent 3 point threat. Lou has been on a tear of late...her three point shooting is team best averaging nearly three 3 pointers per game. As far of overall impact on the game... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Lucy Olsen - Lucy is Villanova's second highest scorer...she also pulls down 4 rebounds and gets 4.1 assists per game. While Nika is a pass first guard and only looks to shoot when left open...she can and does drive the basket and if she has a clear lane will take the lay-up. Still her scoring production is only half of Lucy's but her 9.1 assists per game makes her the most valuable player on the team. Defensively she is tough and will make Lucy's afternoon very difficult. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - While Villanova dresses 12 players and can bring 7 players off the bench there isn't a whole lot of production coming off Villanova's bench. All seven players combine for about 15 points per game. They do have some height on the bench...5'11", 5'10", 6'1", 6'0", 5'6", 6'4"and 6'0". However, even with all those players on the bench they combine for 8 rebounds per game and there is no reliable three point shooter coming off their bench. UConn's three bench players: Ayanna Patterson, Amari DeBerry and Ines Bettencourt average 8 points and 7 rebounds. It is unlikely that all 7 players will see playing time while our three players more than likely will... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Intangibles - Game is being played at our home away from home...Hartford...we should have a strong home crowd there. Our starting five are feeling the chemistry between them and it is gelling. UConn averages 11 more points per game, 6 more rebounds per game. Villanova has been taking care of the basketball better than most teams in the league...they only average 10.5 TOs. UConn is still being plagued with 16 plus TOs. The silver lining is that UConn scores 19.1 points off the TOs they create while Villanova scores 15.8 points off the turnovers they create. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching - Denise Dillon is in her third season at Villanova after a 17 year stint with Drexel. Her win loss record at Drexel was a respectable 329-204 and she led Drexel to 10 post season appearances. Under Dillon Villanova is 41 and 16. Complementing Dillon is Associate Coach Joe Mullaney who is in his 27the season at Villanova, prior to coaching at Villanova Joe was head coach for 12 seasons at St. John's University. Denise and Joe are unfortunately coaching against a legendary duo of Geno and Chris...with a supporting cast of Jamelle Elliot and Morgan Valley. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UCONN - 94
VILLANOVA - 62

MOV - 32

I don't know how to make graphs or charts like you more knowledgeable posters, but on a stat team comparison, UCONN leads in 10 out of 12 categories. We are behind in blocks and our bane, turnovers. Shooting and 3 pointers % is way higher. WE scored 235 more points, 114 more rebounds,105 more assists and 103 more field goals. I think that establishes that we will win BIG. GO HUSKIES!!!

 

[Next 12]

I forgot . 35 more free throws. GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[cferraro04]

I don't know how to make graphs or charts like you more knowledgeable posters, but on a stat team comparison, UCONN leads in 10 out of 12 categories. We are behind in blocks and our bane, turnovers. Shooting and 3 pointers % is way higher. WE scored 235 more points, 114 more rebounds,105 more assists and 103 more field goals. I think that establishes that we will win BIG. GO HUSKIES!!!

You could add to your list that we play tougher opponents / stronger schedule

 

[Bone Dog]

I love everyone’s confidence and I feel it too. But I’m reminded of the first half of the Georgetown game, when we came out flat and looked tired. A much weaker team outhustled us. I think it was an emotional low point for us, and we eventually bounced back. At this point in the season, I think we are grittier than we were then. This is the quality I hope we display today against ‘Nova. We’ll need it in March.

 

[SLY63]

In a game like this, I look at it as give Maddy her 25, but shut down the other complementary players (especially the 3 point shooters) and they simply can't score enough points to win.

 

[CB360]

Personally and no disrespect to your analysis of the players, As good as M.S. is, with the way A.E is playing, meaning on the Same A.A. level as M.S., I'd call it a Draw........ JMHO