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[QUOTE="Redux, post: 4274309, member: 11089"]
There’s some math behind this and some actually fairly sophisticated modeling (with the GIGO caution), but it’s basically the subjective view of someone who is regarded in an inner circle of brilliant & perceptive people (thanks, kids) as knowing something about numbers.

UConn plays worse than “typical” game or SC plays upscale game: SC wins decisively: 25% likely
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays “typical” game & UConn loses composure: SC wins decisively: 10%
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays “typical” game & UConn maintains composure: SC wins tight game: 25%
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays worse than typical: UConn wins very tight game: 15%
UConn plays upscale game & SC plays “typical” game: UConn wins close game: 15%
UConn plays upscale game & SC plays worse than typical: UConn wins comfortably: 10%

To me the bottom line of having done all this is the realization that the chances are about 55% that this game is decided late by totally unpredictable bounces, or character, depending I suppose on your view of how basketball/life really works.
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