Game Analysis - UConn vs South Carolina | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - UConn vs South Carolina

cferraro04

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UConn

Name..................................min........pts........rbs......Asst............3pts.....3pt avg.......year

Christyn Williams...........34.2.......14.6......3.5......72/32..........50.............345........Sr. 5’11”

Paige Bueckers...............28.6.......14.6......3.9.......65/16.........17.............354........So. 5’11”

Azzi Fudd.........................28.4........12.5.....2.8......24/24..........57..............429........Fr 5’11”

Caroline Ducharme......20.9.........9.8......3.3......39/30..........33.............287..........Fr 6’2”

Olivia Nelson-Ododa..27.3.........9.3......7.6.....115/32.........11.............273..........Sr 6’5”

Evina Westbrook..........27.7.........9.0......3.7......111/35.........38............309...........Sr. 6’0”

Aliyah Edwards............24.6..........7.9......5. 2.......49/35...........2.............400...........So 6’3”

Nika Muhl.....................21.8..........3.9......3.1........84/32..........24............426...........So 5’10:

Gabriel Piath..................4.9..........3.0......1.9..........3/13.............0............000............So 6’5”

Amari DeBerry..............5.3..........1.7......0.7........12/15............3............214..............Fr 6’5”



Team

Pts. - 74.5 Opponents - 54.7 Margin - 19.8

FG/G 29.0 Opponents - 20.5

3pt/G 6.9 Opponents - 5.6

FT % .693 Opponents - .720

FT/G 9.5 Opponents - 8.1

RBS 39.0 Opponents - 31.7

Asst 18 Opponents - 10.6

TOs 14.0 Opponents - 16.1

STLs 9.1 Opponents - 5.9

Blks 4.6 Opponents - 2.4


South Carolina


Name.............................................Min.........pts........Rbs.....Assist........3pts........3pt. avg........year

Aliyah Boston.............................28.4........17.0......12.4.....72/36.........14............292..............Jr. 6’5”

Destanni Henderson...............30.9........11.1........3.2....129/33........52............394..............Sr 5’9”

Zia Cooke....................................27.2........10.7........2.0......60/35........45............294...............Jr. 5’9”

Laeticia Amihere......................17.0..........6.4.........3.7......37/30..........5............455................Jr. 6’4”

Victaria Saxton.........................21.4..........5.8.........5.9......43/36...........0......... .000................Sr. 6’2”

Kamilla Cardoso......................13.5..........5.5.........5.2......30/31...........0.......... 000................So. 6’7”

Brea Beal...................................23.9..........5.1.........5.1..... 46/36..........15..........246.................Jr. 6’1”

LeLe Grissett...........................12.5..........3.4.........2.0......14/24.............1.......1.000.................Gr 6’2”

Bree Hall....................................9.1...........2.7.........1.4........1/35............14.........326..................Fr 6’0”

Destiny Littleton.....................9.3..........2.7..........1.3........7/30............21.........344..................Sr 5’9”

Eniya Russell............................8.0..........2.4..........1.4.......19/22.............5.........417..................So 6’1”

Saniya Rivers.........................13.2..........2.3......... 1.7.......38/26............1.........033...................Fr 6’1”

Sania Feagin...........................4.4...........1.9...........1.5........6/30.............0........000.....................Fr 6’3”

Team

Pts. 71.1 Opponents 50.7 Margin 20.4

3pts. 4.9 Opponents 3.7 FT 13.3 / g Avg. .677 Opp. 7.8

Rbs 47.8 Opponents 30.4 Assts 14.1 Opponents 8.9

Stls 6.5 Opponents 6.3

Blks 7.5 Opponents 4.1

TOs 14.4 Opponents 13.6

3pts Avg. .309 Opponents .267

*While I expect UConn to play a lot of zone...player by player match-ups are for the purposes of comparisons to see where each team will have their advantages and disadvantages.

Aliyah Boston vs Ododa
- Too much size for Ododa, Ododa needs to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. In UConn's first match-up Boson had 22 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks and 3 fouls; Ododa's stats were 6 points, 5 rebounds, 5 blocks, and she fouled out. Dorka gave us 2 points and 3 rebounds while Aliyah Edwards gave us 6 points, 3 rebounds and she also fouled out. As you can see...if UConn has an army of bigs it won't be enough to stop Boston. We need both Aliyah and Ododa to stay on the floor...I repeat they must not get into foul trouble. In any case: Huge Advantage - South Carolina

Destiny Henderson vs Christyn Williams -
Christyn Williams did not play well in the first match-up. Being that this is her last game I don't expect a repeat performance. In the first match-up Christyn had 10 points was an 0fer from 3 point land. Henderson on the other had, while she fouled out of that game...still managed to have 15 points, 6 steals, 6 assists and was 1-5 from three. While I expect a better match-up from Christyn this time I still have to call it a Slight Advantage South Carolina

Zia Cooke vs Paige Bueckers
- In the first match-up Paige had 19 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and was 1 for 3 on 3 pointers while Zia had 17 points, 1 assist, 1 rebound and went 1 for 4 on three pointers. Point wise they managed to cancelled each other out but Paige assisted on at least fourteen of UConn's other points to Zia assisting on only 2 of South Carolina's other points. Advantage UConn

Bree Beal vs Azzi Fudd -
Here is where I think it gets interesting. Essentially Azzi Fudd was a no-show in the first match-up... Evina had a pretty good game scoring 14 points, 3 assists and going 2 for 2 for three pointers. Azzi is averaging 12.5 points, 1 assist and 2.2 three pointers / game. Geno can pick his poison here...I think he goes with Azzi Fudd and brings Evina off the bench. Geno loses nothing with either of them with this match-up. Beal had only 6 points and 4 rebounds in the first match-up which is just about at her average. I am going with a Sizeable Advantage for UConn here

Victoria Saxton vs Aliyah Edwards - In the first match-up Saxton had 2 points, 2 assists and 3 rebounds...she only averages 5 points and 5 rebounds per game. Aliyah in the first match-up had 6 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist. She averages 7.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Additionally, she is playing better of late. I am of course, concerned that Aliyah stay out of foul trouble and stays on the floor. If Aliyah can do that then I give a Slight Advantage to UCONN

Bench: South Carolina vs UConn
- South Carolina could bring off the bench Laeticia Amihere, Kamilla Cardoso, LeLe Grissett, Bree Hall and Destiny Littleton who collectively average 20.7 points and 13.9 rebounds; UConn could bring and probably will bring in off the bench Evina Westbrook, Nika Muhl and Caroline Ducharme who collectively average 22.7 points and 9.1 rebounds. Bench - EVEN

Coaching: EVEN

Intangibles: Neutral Court, however...Bueckers grew up 10 miles away from the tournament site. While this makes for a good back story...it does nothing to create an advantage. EVEN
 
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There’s some math behind this and some actually fairly sophisticated modeling (with the GIGO caution), but it’s basically the subjective view of someone who is regarded in an inner circle of brilliant & perceptive people (thanks, kids) as knowing something about numbers.

UConn plays worse than “typical” game or SC plays upscale game: SC wins decisively: 25% likely
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays “typical” game & UConn loses composure: SC wins decisively: 10%
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays “typical” game & UConn maintains composure: SC wins tight game: 25%
UConn plays “typical” game & SC plays worse than typical: UConn wins very tight game: 15%
UConn plays upscale game & SC plays “typical” game: UConn wins close game: 15%
UConn plays upscale game & SC plays worse than typical: UConn wins comfortably: 10%

To me the bottom line of having done all this is the realization that the chances are about 55% that this game is decided late by totally unpredictable bounces, or character, depending I suppose on your view of how basketball/life really works.
 
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