Game Analysis - UConn vs Princeton

[cferraro04]

Ellie MItchell vs Aliyah Edwards - Ellie has been a rebounding machine actually had 23 rebounds against Seton Hall. Ellie seems to not be too much of a scoring threat, however. Aliyah has been a consistent double-double against much tougher competition. I would expect Aliyah will do her part to pick up some of the slack in the scoring category now that Azzi is on the IR list. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Morton vs Aubrey Griffin - Paige plays about 16 minutes per game...when Paige leaves the game Carla will probably go with a four guard line-up...this will not affect this match-up at all as Aubrey is flexible on defense she will be able to defend a bigger player like Paige who isn't really a scoring or a rebounding threat and she can defend a guard should Carla decide to go small ball. Aubrey will have a good bounce back game from her lack-luster performance during the Notre Dame game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen vs Nika Muhl - Kaitlyn leads Princeton in scoring but, she hasn't been "Muhled" yet. Nika will prove to be quite bothersome to Kaityln and I don't see Kaitlyn scoring her average in this game...Kaitlyn is Princeton's best facilitator but her 4 assists will not be enough for other players to pick up the slack. I think Nika will facilitate the UConn offense and she will contribute to the offensive output as she will be aware that the team has to make up for the loss of 20 plus points that Azzi provides. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Grace Stone vs Caroline Ducharme - Hard to tell what version of Caroline we will get in this game...there is something obviously going on with Caroline...Is she capable of being a game changer? Absolutely! Grace's 10.7 points and three rebounds seems to outshine Caroline's 5.5 points and 2.8 rebounds however, Caroline's big body and great defense could change that differential. Additionally, If you take Caroline's average in the last 3 games you get 9.0 points and 4.3 rebound which puts these two players even when looking at offensive output and rebounds. While I think that Caroline is capable of dominating in this match-up I am going to call this one: EVEN

Julia Cunningham vs Lou Lopez-Senechal - Julia is Princeton's second most productive player...she plays a lot of minutes 34 minutes per game...however Lou is a natural scorer and she has proven she can score against teams that are considered top ten. I think Lou's green light just got a recharge and it is shining brighter than ever. I am sure Geno has told her she has to step up and score more in order to compensate for the loss of Azzi. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - Madson St. Rose, Chet Nneke and Maggie Connelly vs Ayanna Patterson, Amari DeBerry, Ines Bettencourt - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Intangibles - UConn albeit with the help of Azzi has averaged 84 points per game against some pretty good competition while Princeton only averages 63.4 points per game. Points off turnovers greatly favors UConn who averages 23.3 points off turnovers vs Princeton's 12.7. Even without Azzi UConn is much more athletic than Princeton...UConn is playing at home and they are coming off a loss on the road. ADVANTAGE - UCONN.

Coaching - Carla has an excellent record and is known for getting a lot out of her players. Geno on the other hand has a better talent pool to coach. Geno is at his best when he has to overcome adversity. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

 

[Viet Vet]

I think we will win, but............The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Individual matchups are overrated.

 

[Centerstream]

So you have come to the conclusion that Caroline is the starting replacement for Azzi? Do you have some inside info?

BTW, I agree with you and expect Ayanna to get plenty of PT once we are ahead comfortably.

 

[Zarathustra]

So, we are to expect no DORKA???? We need Dorka for Sunday, but I had
anticipated maybe some minutes against Princeton as a warmup. Amari
should get some additional minutes if UCONN needs the height or
just for the playing time prior to some possible anticipated need for
her presence " in the paint" on Sunday if we do not have DORKA.
There are many moving pieces here but we have the CHESSMASTER:
Geno! GO HUSKIES! . .

 

[Conndog]

So you have come to the conclusion that Caroline is the starting replacement for Azzi? Do you have some inside info?

BTW, I agree with you and expect Ayanna to get plenty of PT once we are ahead comfortably.

I would conclude also that Caroline would start for Azzi as her replacement. In any event, they are just guesses.

 

[Centerstream]

So, we are to expect no DORKA???? We need Dorka for Sunday, but I had
anticipated maybe some minutes against Princeton as a warmup. Amari
should get some additional minutes if UCONN needs the height or
just for the playing time prior to some possible anticipated need for
her presence " in the paint" on Sunday if we do not have DORKA.
There are many moving pieces here but we have the CHESSMASTER:
Geno! GO HUSKIES! . .

Wasn't Geno's most recent comments on Dorka that if ready, he was going to see how she does in this week's early practices? But maybe this was about Azzi before yesterday's terrible news...I am sooo confused.

 

[huskyd]

You describe Paige Morton as neither a scoring nor a rebounding threat. What does that leave for her to do? Ah: she must be purely decorative.
Speaking of something to do, Geno had relatively little to say in his ND presser. Basically, he said that you can't win w/out scoring, and with Azzi's departure there went scoring. Of course, Lou did the best she could. Unfortunately, the Irish figured out that she was playing on an island; they focused on the sole survivor. Still, she put up 20 points, while 40 or 50 points saluted her from the sidelines . . .
The picture of UConn we're getting isn't accurate. W/out Azzi, Paige, Ice, and Dorka, we really aren't ourselves.

 

[cferraro04]

I don't agree with your premise, "clearly ND had the starter advantage". To begin with Azzi going down in the first period and only playing non-productive minutes in the second as she was obviously compensating for her injury had an emotional effect on the remaining UConn player's psyche. The entire UConn defense was out of sync as a result. Notre Dame was able to do things offensively that with a healthy Azzi in the line-up they wouldn't have been able to do. For example, Westbeld went 3-5 from three...adjustments will be made and that will not happen again. Neither will UConn allow Miles to take the ball up the middle uncontested the way she did. ND was able to take the ball into the paint and there was little to no weak-side help from UConn because the defensive sets were out of sync. ND shot 61 percent in the first quarter and 69 percent in second quarter that is 65 percent for the first half. And, that is against what is arguably when healthy one of the best defensive teams in the country. Offensively without Azzi lighting it up from three it put a lot of pressure on Lou (who by the way did a great job). It also made it difficult for our big(s) to operate in the paint because with ND daring Aubrey to shoot from the outside and draping themselves over Lou...they were able to pack the middle and make it extremely difficult for Aaliyah.

I actually, am not disappointed by their performance against ND. One, I don't expect ND to play as effectively next time around. Two, with Azzi injured, Dorka injured, Aubrey and Caroline (also injured) accounting for 4 points between them that leaves 55 points off the table. UConn will get healthy and ND will not come within 20 points of a healthy UConn team.

In closing what if Aubrey and Caroline both scored 10 points each (something they are both capable of doing when a team's defense is spread out trying to deal with all of UConn's weapons)? UConn wins that game. Let's face it...UConn's SOS is number one in the country...they are playing the worst part of their schedule with a depleted team...and they aren't doing so bad.

So, in my original game analysis I had a starter advantage for UConn and if UConn is healthy I stand by that all day long. UConn is the better team, their starters are a better starting five and given a second chance I wouldn't bet against UConn.

 

[pacific 44]

Whenever Uconn loses,i always look to see who the next opponent is due to the fact that they haven't lost two games in a row since 1993. Certainly not the most important aspect of the next game,but interesting nonetheless. If Maryland at home was our next opponent, they would have at least a puncher's chance of breaking that record. Uconn vs. Princeton at home after a tough loss and some tough practices not so much.

 

[Cuango]

I’m more scared of Princeton than Maryland! Princeton has a great coach, Maryland, not so much.

 

[cferraro04]

You describe Paige Morton as neither a scoring nor a rebounding threat. What does that leave for her to do? Ah: she must be purely decorative.
Speaking of something to do, Geno had relatively little to say in his ND presser. Basically, he said that you can't win w/out scoring, and with Azzi's departure there went scoring. Of course, Lou did the best she could. Unfortunately, the Irish figured out that she was playing on an island; they focused on the sole survivor. Still, she put up 20 points, while 40 or 50 points saluted her from the sidelines . . .
The picture of UConn we're getting isn't accurate. W/out Azzi, Paige, Ice, and Dorka, we really aren't ourselves.

You describe Paige Morton as neither a scoring nor a rebounding threat. What does that leave for her to do? Ah: she must be purely decorative.

My description of Paige is actually quite accurate: Paige's stats are as follows: 6 pts / gm; 2 rbs / gm; zero 3 pointers; 3 assts in 7 games; 4 steals in 7 games and 2 blocks in 7 games. So, would you call Paige a scoring or a rebounding threat? Would you call her a defensive threat? Would you call her a play-maker or a facilitator? While the answers to those questions are obvious I would not nor did I call her "purely decorative". Finally, with the possibility that she may draw Aubrey Griffin as an assignment doesn't exactly draw any confidence that she will perform any better than her current averages and actually doesn't bode well that she will reach her averages.

 

[Alydar]

Ellie MItchell vs Aliyah Edwards - Ellie has been a rebounding machine actually had 23 rebounds against Seton Hall. Ellie seems to not be too much of a scoring threat, however. Aliyah has been a consistent double-double against much tougher competition. I would expect Aliyah will do her part to pick up some of the slack in the scoring category now that Azzi is on the IR list. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Morton vs Aubrey Griffin - Paige plays about 16 minutes per game...when Paige leaves the game Carla will probably go with a four guard line-up...this will not affect this match-up at all as Aubrey is flexible on defense she will be able to defend a bigger player like Paige who isn't really a scoring or a rebounding threat and she can defend a guard should Carla decide to go small ball. Aubrey will have a good bounce back game from her lack-luster performance during the Notre Dame game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen vs Nika Muhl - Kaitlyn leads Princeton in scoring but, she hasn't been "Muhled" yet. Nika will prove to be quite bothersome to Kaityln and I don't see Kaitlyn scoring her average in this game...Kaitlyn is Princeton's best facilitator but her 4 assists will not be enough for other players to pick up the slack. I think Nika will facilitate the UConn offense and she will contribute to the offensive output as she will be aware that the team has to make up for the loss of 20 plus points that Azzi provides. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Grace Stone vs Caroline Ducharme - Hard to tell what version of Caroline we will get in this game...there is something obviously going on with Caroline...Is she capable of being a game changer? Absolutely! Grace's 10.7 points and three rebounds seems to outshine Caroline's 5.5 points and 2.8 rebounds however, Caroline's big body and great defense could change that differential. Additionally, If you take Caroline's average in the last 3 games you get 9.0 points and 4.3 rebound which puts these two players even when looking at offensive output and rebounds. While I think that Caroline is capable of dominating in this match-up I am going to call this one: EVEN

Julia Cunningham vs Lou Lopez-Senechal - Julia is Princeton's second most productive player...she plays a lot of minutes 34 minutes per game...however Lou is a natural scorer and she has proven she can score against teams that are considered top ten. I think Lou's green light just got a recharge and it is shining brighter than ever. I am sure Geno has told her she has to step up and score more in order to compensate for the loss of Azzi. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - Madson St. Rose, Chet Nneke and Maggie Connelly vs Ayanna Patterson, Amari DeBerry, Ines Bettencourt - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Intangibles - UConn albeit with the help of Azzi has averaged 84 points per game against some pretty good competition while Princeton only averages 63.4 points per game. Points off turnovers greatly favors UConn who averages 23.3 points off turnovers vs Princeton's 12.7. Even without Azzi UConn is much more athletic than Princeton...UConn is playing at home and they are coming off a loss on the road. ADVANTAGE - UCONN.

Coaching - Carla has an excellent record and is known for getting a lot out of her players. Geno on the other hand has a better talent pool to coach. Geno is at his best when he has to overcome adversity. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Good analysis. Ducharme played significant minutes last Friday and I suspect that playing only 13 on Sunday was precautionary and pre-planned. They seem to be going slow to see if any symptoms return. I see her playing a big role on Thursday.

 

[TCC Kid]

With deference to your status, I suggest that the sum of a cake is more than it's parts, yeast does that. However, in humans, comparing parts individually is better than trying to define the team. Without individual Part Azzi, a game was lost. Without an individual part, Paige, MAYBE a title was lost. So, it would appear no matter the math involved, that we'd be lost with out INDIVIDUALs, especially these United States. We are lucky to live in a land where Individuals matter. ALSO, in a game in Indiana; Azzi and Lou, add Edwards, NIKA, matchup's mattered.
I agree if you meant paper match up's MAY be over rated.

I think we will win, but............The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Individual matchups are overrated.

yo

 

[Littlemin]

I don't agree with your premise, "clearly ND had the starter advantage". To begin with Azzi going down in the first period and only playing non-productive minutes in the second as she was obviously compensating for her injury had an emotional effect on the remaining UConn player's psyche. The entire UConn defense was out of sync as a result. Notre Dame was able to do things offensively that with a healthy Azzi in the line-up they wouldn't have been able to do. For example, Westbeld went 3-5 from three...adjustments will be made and that will not happen again. Neither will UConn allow Miles to take the ball up the middle uncontested the way she did. ND was able to take the ball into the paint and there was little to no weak-side help from UConn because the defensive sets were out of sync. ND shot 61 percent in the first quarter and 69 percent in second quarter that is 65 percent for the first half. And, that is against what is arguably when healthy one of the best defensive teams in the country. Offensively without Azzi lighting it up from three it put a lot of pressure on Lou (who by the way did a great job). It also made it difficult for our big(s) to operate in the paint because with ND daring Aubrey to shoot from the outside and draping themselves over Lou...they were able to pack the middle and make it extremely difficult for Aaliyah.

I actually, am not disappointed by their performance against ND. One, I don't expect ND to play as effectively next time around. Two, with Azzi injured, Dorka injured, Aubrey and Caroline (also injured) accounting for 4 points between them that leaves 55 points off the table. UConn will get healthy and ND will not come within 20 points of a healthy UConn team.

In closing what if Aubrey and Caroline both scored 10 points each (something they are both capable of doing when a team's defense is spread out trying to deal with all of UConn's weapons)? UConn wins that game. Let's face it...UConn's SOS is number one in the country...they are playing the worst part of their schedule with a depleted team...and they aren't doing so bad.

So, in my original game analysis I had a starter advantage for UConn and if UConn is healthy I stand by that all day long. UConn is the better team, their starters are a better starting five and given a second chance I wouldn't bet against UConn.

Sometimes I really wonder! Westbeld went 3-5 from 3 because Fudd got hurt?
There is no question Miles had a great 1st qtr and got ND off to a great start but ND was up 5 at the end of the qtr and Miles scored 8 points in the last 3, 4 of them in the 4th basically after the outcome was decided so the premise that she was allowed to take the ball uncontested is just not factual. She had a great qtr, was pretty much shut down from there and then other players took up the slack. Other teams have good players too and it so happened they all shot well on the same day, it happens.
And ND daring Griffin to shoot and playing 5 on 4 started from the beginning of the game, that also had NOTHING to do with Fudd getting hurt. Fudd getting hurt certainly hampered Uconn on offense big time but the idea that other Uconn players were demoralized by her injury just does not hold water; how did they come back from 17 at the half to 5 with the ball in 6 1/2 minutes in the 3rd? Now they couldn’t sustain that and not having Fudd CERTAINLY had a huge bearing on that but I don’t believe for a second her injury had the effect you surmise. The fought and played hard after Fudd got hurt, winning the 2nd half, just too little, too late.

 

[cferraro04]

Fudd going down had an effect on UConn players whether you want to acknowledge it or not. Not having an extra three point threat gave ND the ability to leave Griffin open from the perimeter...Griffin did not knock down the open shots. It also gave ND the ability to pack the middle because all they need to worry about was Lou who was the lone survivor on the perimeter. Lou did a great job. UConn recovered somewhat in the 2nd half and closed the gap...ND made the adjustments it needed to make to re-extend the lead. If you think UConn leaving 55 points on the bench bodes well for ND in a rematch if UConn gets Azzi, Caroline and Dorka back into game shape...I say, let's have at it. I take that bet any day...UConn by 20 in the rematch.

 

[Littlemin]

Fudd going down had an effect on UConn players whether you want to acknowledge it or not. Not having an extra three point threat gave ND the ability to leave Griffin open from the perimeter...Griffin did not knock down the open shots. It also gave ND the ability to pack the middle because all they need to worry about was Lou who was the lone survivor on the perimeter. Lou did a great job. UConn recovered somewhat in the 2nd half and closed the gap...ND made the adjustments it needed to make to re-extend the lead. If you think UConn leaving 55 points on the bench bodes well for ND in a rematch if UConn gets Azzi, Caroline and Dorka back into game shape...I say, let's have at it. I take that bet any day...UConn by 20 in the rematch.

Your premise was it had an “emotional effect” and I disagree; no question it had a profound “basketball effect” on the offensive end, which certainly I acknowledge. But ND was packing the middle from the start of the game so we also disagree that Fudd’s injury was the springboard for that strategy.

 

[cferraro04]

My question to you would be...If Fudd remained in the game and went for 4-5 threes would ND continued to pack the middle or would they have made the adjustment?

 

[cferraro04]

Can't disagree with much of what you said with the exception that I don't think you will see Aubrey score just 2 points again the rest of the season. Too athletic, too talented and she is just beginning to tap into her talent and abilities.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think it's a simpler equation: Princeton doesn't have a lot of muscle or size to keep Aaliyah Aubrey Ayanna off the boards. Obviously we don't have as much offensive firepower at the perimeter as we did before the ND game. But we have plenty compared to Princeton. What's more, since the paint won't be packed against her, Aubrey can rediscover her slashing game. This is the easy way to look at things -- inside vs outside. We will dominate inside, which means they'll have to give help D on Aaliyah, and as a result Lou can get open outside. Ordinarily, we'd work it the other way, dominating on the perimeter so that Aaliyah can go to work inside.