Game Analysis - Game 9 - UConn vs DePaul

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This will unfortunately be another blowout game, with UConn starters logging somewhere south of 25 minutes each. Everyone will get a chance to play, and everyone will eat at the table. DePaul comes into this game undersized and without its characteristic outside snipers. DePaul is off to a slow start as they are 2-7. DePaul's net rating is 263, while UConn sits in the top spot. DePaul plays the 65th toughest schedule, while UConn is ranked 3 in SOS. Clearly, UConn is more talented, bigger, and plays a tougher schedule. UConn is playing like the number one team in the country, while DePaul is struggling to find its identity. This should be another game that even if Geno takes his foot off the gas and he will...UConn will flirt with scoring 100 points.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Either Michele Ojo, 6'0" - Graduate Forward or Meg Newmann, 6'2" R-Senior Forward - Michele is averaging 30.3 minutes per game, so I expect her to get the majority of minutes at this position. She is averaging 8.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and .7 steals per game. Serah Williams is averaging 7.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, and 1 block per game. Serah has faced much tougher competition so far this season than has either Michele or Meg. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Either Kate Novic, 6'0" - Junior Guard or Justis Odom, 6'2' - Graduate Forward - Kate Novic will not be able to stop or contain Sarah Strong. Sarah will pretty much have her way with Kate. I look forward to Sarah having a big stat day, even though she will only be playing about 25 minutes. Kate is DePaul's most prolific scorer, and she contributes statistically across the board. Kate is averaging 13.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Sarah is 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Both women average about 1 three-pointer per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Alayna West, 5'10' - R-Freshman Guard - Alayna West is averaging 8.9 points, 4,8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. Azzi Fudd averages 18.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi shoots an astounding 3.4 three-pointers per game and makes her three-point shot 50.9 percent of the time. DePaul has not faced a defense that even comes close to what they will face on Sunday. Azzi is going to be too much to handle for Alyana. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Natiah Nelson, 5'9" Sophomore Guard - Natiah averages 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and .9 blocks per game. Ashlynn is beginning to find her stroke and has been playing better the last couple of games. Ashlynn is averaging 8.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is battle-tested and has faced much stiffer competition than Natiah has. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnord, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Devin Hagemann, 5'6" Sophomore Guard - Devin has started in four of DePaul's games. I think she will start in this one, too. Devin averages 4.6 points, 1 three-pointer, 2.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. KK is averaging 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. 5 three-pointers and 2.8 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn will bring 35.4 points, 15.1 rebounds off the bench, but most importantly, there is little drop-off in defensive intensity. DePaul will bring 33.9 points and 11.9 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UConn's coaching staff has seen tougher competition; they will have no problem with match-ups in this game. Their major challenge will be making sure all the reserves get a chance to play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

They don't matter in this game...UConn is a more talented, bigger, and well-coached superior team. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 104
DePaul - 45
MOV - 59

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! This is helpful as always.

Here’s my suspicion of what we’ll see, based in part on your remark that we’ll only see the starters for 25 mins or even a little less. That is, “Geno will take his foot off the gas” — which means the bench will get more minutes. But I suspect he also wants to see the starters really stomp on the gas when they’re on the floor. In their ~25 mins I think we’ll see ~60 points. If they achieve this and the bench merely adds their usual ~35 points, we’ll see another 90 point game.

But the fact is the unit led by Kayleigh and Allie might well be in the process of upping their game. And this could lead to a 100 point game even if Geno isn’t looking for that. Those kids want to make their mark too and this is one of the many upcoming games that will give them a chance. This includes Kelis and Jana, but also Caroline and even Ayanna. The offense tends to ratchet down when they’re on the floor, but that isn’t going to be a constant this season.

Of course, I’m speaking loosely about starters and bench, but these two groups overlap quite a bit. And players like Blanca as well as Kayleigh and Allie typically play with both groups. The more these three up their game and their cohesiveness with each other, the more difficult it will be for Geno to take his foot off the gas.

Blanca and Kayleigh are hungry for achievement and they can ratchet up their intensity to the rafters. That’s easy to see. And even if Allie doesn’t present as a high energy type, the cleverness of her game is emerging. I now think of her as a little Caroline. She doesn’t have ‘blow-by’ speed, but she is better at finding her spots, hitting 3s and getting to the rim, where she is adept at all those little flip shots and floaters that also distinguished Caroline’s game as a freshman.

When we marveled at at the possibilities offered by the newfound depth, this is likely to mean that starters-bench distinction will get hazier rather than sharper compared to previous seasons. I’ve way to put this is that the primary rotation is roughly 7 deep and the bench often plays next to Azzi or Sarah or Serah.

We saw the beginnings of this last season and we’ll see it even more this season. What it means for conference games is that there will be more blowouts. Yikes.

 

[DavidinNaples]

Thank you Sensei..! This analysis always provides great information & insight.
The time you spend to put these reports together is appreciated..!
For those who wish to, give Sensei a “Like” even though he does it for love of UConn.
Thanks…

 

[jabstep]

I as the others, appreciate your analysis in helping me try to predict the final score and the MOV. It also helps familiarize me with the DePaul team when watching the game. You are much appreciated!!!

 

[Next 12]

Thank you, great analysis. What I would like to see is Geno start the Second team first and bring the Starters in the second quarter. Just a wild speculation, but I would still like to see it.Maybe let them play the second quarter also. Just saying. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!

 

[YKCornelius]

Thanks again, Sensei! This is helpful as always.

Here’s my suspicion of what we’ll see, based in part on your remark that we’ll only see the starters for 25 mins or even a little less. That is, “Geno will take his foot off the gas” — which means the bench will get more minutes. But I suspect he also wants to see the starters really stomp on the gas when they’re on the floor. In their ~25 mins I think we’ll see ~60 points. If they achieve this and the bench merely adds their usual ~35 points, we’ll see another 90 point game.

But the fact is the unit led by Kayleigh and Allie might well be in the process of upping their game. And this could lead to a 100 point game even if Geno isn’t looking for that. Those kids want to make their mark too and this is one of the many upcoming games that will give them a chance. This includes Kelis and Jana, but also Caroline and even Ayanna. The offense tends to ratchet down when they’re on the floor, but that isn’t going to be a constant this season.

Of course, I’m speaking loosely about starters and bench, but these two groups overlap quite a bit. And players like Blanca as well as Kayleigh and Allie typically play with both groups. The more these three up their game and their cohesiveness with each other, the more difficult it will be for Geno to take his foot off the gas.

Blanca and Kayleigh are hungry for achievement and they can ratchet up their intensity to the rafters. That’s easy to see. And even if Allie doesn’t present as a high energy type, the cleverness of her game is emerging. I now think of her as a little Caroline. She doesn’t have ‘blow-by’ speed, but she is better at finding her spots, hitting 3s and getting to the rim, where she is adept at all those little flip shots and floaters that also distinguished Caroline’s game as a freshman.

When we marveled at at the possibilities offered by the newfound depth, this is likely to mean that starters-bench distinction will get hazier rather than sharper compared to previous seasons. I’ve way to put this is that the primary rotation is roughly 7 deep and the bench often plays next to Azzi or Sarah or Serah.

We saw the beginnings of this last season and we’ll see it even more this season. What it means for conference games is that there will be more blowouts. Yikes.

Bone Dog, good post. I agree with the notion that the starters will see a reduction in minutes, but I don't think it will be too much of a reduction from what they are currently averaging. Maybe a couple of minutes at the most.

That said, I also don't think there will be any thought/desire from Geno to "take his foot off the gas" and slow the game down like he did last year (and years past) during blow outs. There simply is too much to work on regarding player rotations and not enough minutes in a game to waste precious opportunities.

So I think we will continue to see the starting five on the court for about 5-7 minutes at the beginning of each half before we start seeing the other rotational players coming into the game - following the blueprint of what we have seen already in most games. Then, for the remainder of the first half - as well as the remainder of the third quarter - we will see various combinations of starters and subs that Geno wants to develop/integrate going forward. I would expect these Huskies to be the same core players who saw the court against Michigan with the possible addition of Ice and maybe Caroline for a couple of minutes. (As a side note, if Ice and Caroline enter the game during this time, I would take that as an indication of Geno's desire to evaluate them in a specific rotation(s).)

The important thing to note in this game - and every game this season for that matter - are the different rotations that Geno is using, and when/how he is using them. I believe the chronological rotation list that NycUcWbbfan has been posting after every game is the most telling indication of Geno's mindset as he navigates through this very unique season.

For me, the critical inflection point in all these games is when Geno subs in players without leaving any starters on the court. I believe at that point, he is effectively deciding to move away from "rotation development" to focus on individual player development - a very good thing and NOT indicative of anything negative regarding any specific player.

What makes this "inflection point in the game" worth sitting up and taking note is the use Caroline and Ice as experienced floor generals who are able to read-and-react appropriately and influence the younger players. Hence the coaching staff is able to get quality information regarding how well the new players are acclimatizing to the UConn way of doing things. Said differently, the end of the game is no longer simply mop-up time, and we now see very little of the bench players looking lost or confused as we have seen in years past. Very cool!

I realize many Boneyarders will continue to harp on individual players: are they getting better or regressing? What is the rationale or repercussions for their reductions in minutes? Why they are not in the starting line-up, etc. In my opinion, such speculation - while understandable and somewhat fun to opine - misses the uniqueness of this special season, where the depth of UConn's talent coupled with the influx of transfers/freshmen demands more focus away from players and towards rotations.

With that mindset, I am looking forward to every game - including expected blowouts against Big East opponents. Furthermore, I am expecting high productivity - which will include high scores even when opponents are using up much of their shot clock. In other words, even if the opponent slows the pace of the game down (which I expect many to do) I expect the Huskies to score >85 ppg AND continue to maintain their fourth quarter average of ~ 20 ppg. But if they don't - no worries.

Go Huskies!

 

[Bigboote]

Thanks again, Sensei! This is helpful as always.

Here’s my suspicion of what we’ll see, based in part on your remark that we’ll only see the starters for 25 mins or even a little less. That is, “Geno will take his foot off the gas” — which means the bench will get more minutes. But I suspect he also wants to see the starters really stomp on the gas when they’re on the floor. In their ~25 mins I think we’ll see ~60 points. If they achieve this and the bench merely adds their usual ~35 points, we’ll see another 90 point game.
. . .
When we marveled at at the possibilities offered by the newfound depth, this is likely to mean that starters-bench distinction will get hazier rather than sharper compared to previous seasons. I’ve way to put this is that the primary rotation is roughly 7 deep and the bench often plays next to Azzi or Sarah or Serah.

I'd really like to see Serah get more time if only to get her more comfortable for games in which she will need to play more. Even if that means playing her more with the second unit. If she's more prepared to play with folks with a different style (KK vs Kayleigh most importantly), she'll be more prepared to play against folks with different styles in the context of UConn basketball.

 

[veryolddog]

I have come to appreciate the effort you make to set the stage for amateur viewers like myself. When I tune in the games, I have at least a little information which makes following the proceeding a lot more interesting. Thank you.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Thank you for all your hard work!
I look forward to your forecast each game!

 

[Bone Dog]

… many Boneyarders will continue to harp on individual players: are they getting better or regressing? What is the rationale or repercussions for their reductions in minutes?

Excellent post, @YKCornelius. This remark especially struck me. I rewatched the USF game this morning and one thing I noticed that I’d missed the first time through is the number of times Jana was fouled in the 4th quarter on rebounds. She ended up shooting a number of free throws — and missed a few. But that’s not the issue. What we should pay attention to is that the USF posts were fouling her because she was boxing them out effectively. This is something many of us have complained about, and in this game the progress she’s already made was visible for all to see. It was easy to miss and get distracted by the missed free throws. But the important thing was the fact of the fouls and why they happened. I imagine this is what Geno looks at.

 

[cferraro04]

Bone Dog, good post. I agree with the notion that the starters will see a reduction in minutes, but I don't think it will be too much of a reduction from what they are currently averaging. Maybe a couple of minutes at the most.

That said, I also don't think there will be any thought/desire from Geno to "take his foot off the gas" and slow the game down like he did last year (and years past) during blow outs. There simply is too much to work on regarding player rotations and not enough minutes in a game to waste precious opportunities.

So I think we will continue to see the starting five on the court for about 5-7 minutes at the beginning of each half before we start seeing the other rotational players coming into the game - following the blueprint of what we have seen already in most games. Then, for the remainder of the first half - as well as the remainder of the third quarter - we will see various combinations of starters and subs that Geno wants to develop/integrate going forward. I would expect these Huskies to be the same core players who saw the court against Michigan with the possible addition of Ice and maybe Caroline for a couple of minutes. (As a side note, if Ice and Caroline enter the game during this time, I would take that as an indication of Geno's desire to evaluate them in a specific rotation(s).)

The important thing to note in this game - and every game this season for that matter - are the different rotations that Geno is using, and when/how he is using them. I believe the chronological rotation list that NycUcWbbfan has been posting after every game is the most telling indication of Geno's mindset as he navigates through this very unique season.

For me, the critical inflection point in all these games is when Geno subs in players without leaving any starters on the court. I believe at that point, he is effectively deciding to move away from "rotation development" to focus on individual player development - a very good thing and NOT indicative of anything negative regarding any specific player.

What makes this "inflection point in the game" worth sitting up and taking note is the use Caroline and Ice as experienced floor generals who are able to read-and-react appropriately and influence the younger players. Hence the coaching staff is able to get quality information regarding how well the new players are acclimatizing to the UConn way of doing things. Said differently, the end of the game is no longer simply mop-up time, and we now see very little of the bench players looking lost or confused as we have seen in years past. Very cool!

I realize many Boneyarders will continue to harp on individual players: are they getting better or regressing? What is the rationale or repercussions for their reductions in minutes? Why they are not in the starting line-up, etc. In my opinion, such speculation - while understandable and somewhat fun to opine - misses the uniqueness of this special season, where the depth of UConn's talent coupled with the influx of transfers/freshmen demands more focus away from players and towards rotations.

With that mindset, I am looking forward to every game - including expected blowouts against Big East opponents. Furthermore, I am expecting high productivity - which will include high scores even when opponents are using up much of their shot clock. In other words, even if the opponent slows the pace of the game down (which I expect many to do) I expect the Huskies to score >85 ppg AND continue to maintain their fourth quarter average of ~ 20 ppg. But if they don't - no worries.

Go Huskies!

YK...after reading your post, I have a question. Has it been announced that Ice's return is imminent? If so, I must have missed it.

 

[YKCornelius]

YK...after reading your post, I have a question. Has it been announced that Ice's return is imminent? If so, I must have missed it.

Sensei, no, there has been no announcement of Ice's return. Actually, based on yesterday's presser, not only NOT imminent, but there is no target date looking ahead. Geno said at yesterday's presser that it will be a MINIMUM of two more weeks for both Ice and Morgan, but implied that there is no timeline for either after the two weeks.

Additionally, when asked if he was having discussions with Morgan about the possibility of red-shirting this year, he said there has been no thoughts/discussion in that regard. He expects Morgan to be available at some point this season.

I viewed the presser after I posted my thoughts on tomorrow's game. Clearly, Ice will not be available tomorrow.

 

[cferraro04]

Thank you, everyone, for the kind words of gratitude. I really do enjoy the posts that usually follow my analysis thread. Many great posters use the thread to talk about line-ups, strategy, and player development. There are always very informative posts that also give me things to think about as I prepare the next Analysis thread. Looking ahead...while the Big East looks very good for UConn. There are a few games that should challenge UConn: USC (6-2; Kara Dunn, Jazzy Davidson); Iowa (9-0: balanced scoring, Ava Heiden averaging 16.5 points per game); Notre Dame (5-2; One-dimensional team, the Hildago Show; shoots 1/3 of ND shots; is averaging 7/39 from three only making 17.9 percent of her three point attempts); Tennessee (6-2, Balanced scoring; Talaysia Cooper, Janiah Barker 44 rebouns per game). I think UConn will win all four of these games.

 

[cferraro04]

Sensei, no, there has been no announcement of Ice's return. Actually, based on yesterday's presser, not only NOT imminent, but there is no target date looking ahead. Geno said at yesterday's presser that it will be a MINIMUM of two more weeks for both Ice and Morgan, but implied that there is no timeline for either after the two weeks.

Additionally, when asked if he was having discussions with Morgan about the possibility of red-shirting this year, he said there has been no thoughts/discussion in that regard. He expects Morgan to be available at some point this season.

I viewed the presser after I posted my thoughts on tomorrow's game. Clearly, Ice will not be available tomorrow.

Thanks, YK...by the way, since the game is at Gampel, I expect that the student section should be pretty wild.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Live Stats &1:

• 12/7/2025: DePaul at UConn

&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games (through 12/31/2025) are available via this schedule.

• The link is removed for played games.
• The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.