cferraro04
Sensei
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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COMMENTS:
I think we are all in agreement that having the past week off was a good thing for the UConn Huskies. The Cayman Islands was pretty rough going for the Huskies. UCLA was already in mid-season form while the Huskies were reeling from the loss of Azzi for the season and Caroline Ducharme being out of the line-up and uncertainty surrounding if and when she will return. Paige coming off a 500-plus day lay-off due to her own injuries was expected to put the team on her shoulders and pull off a couple of wins. Despite a 31-point effort in game one and a 19-point effort in game two...she almost pulled it off. However, UCLA proved to be too much for UConn (12 threes is hard to overcome) when you don't have the shooters to match it.
Next up is 7-0 Texas...but, let's not get ahead of ourselves here...they haven't really played anyone of consequence yet. Their opponent's RPI rankings are as follows: 63, 133, 181, 183, 190, 191 and 208. Texas' opponent's SOS is also unimpressive and their collective SOS rankings are as follows: 24, 32, 45, 77, 80, 152, and 191. Finally, the Massey ratings of their opponents are as follows: 77, 75, 147, 189, 231, 234 and 249.
Texas starts: Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" graduate guard; Rori Harmon, 5'6" junior guard; Madison Booker 6'1" freshman forward; Amina Muhammad 6'4" freshman forward and Taylor Jones 6'4"senior forward. Their starters average 56.3 points of the Longhorn's 88.9 points or 63.3 percent of the team's total game points.
The Longhorns bench accounts for 32. 6 points and 23.5 rebounds. Their bench has 6'0" Shay Holle who plays 24.3 minutes per game; 6'4" Kadikja Faye - 16.4 minutes per game; 6'2" Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda - 17.3 minutes; 6'1" Aaliyah Moore - 13.9 minutes; and 5'11" Gisella Maul - 13.6 minutes per game.
UConn's bench accounts for 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds...this production would appear to be quite anemic compared to the bench production from Texas.
The obvious thing that jumps out to me is that Texas has quite a bit of size on their roster and there isn't even any mention of the 6'9" freshman (Abby Boutilcer) who hasn't played in any of their games yet.
They are not a particularly good 3-point shooting team, but they put a lot of points up on the board. Again this is probably because they haven't really played anybody who was that good yet. For all their size they only average 4.3 blocks per game. They average about 20 assists with only 11.3 turnovers per game. They force 25.5 turnovers per game and average 20 steals per game...indicating that they can put pressure on the ball and UConn will have to take care of the basketball.
Rory Harmon was named a pre-season All-American honorable mention...Rory is also the Big 12's pre-season Player of the Year. Last year she was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. She holds the school record for most assists per game at 7.4 and last year was ranked 4th in the country for assists per game. Rori was also named to the 2024 16-person list for the Wade Trophy for Player of the Year
Notables:
• HORNS ON D: Last season the Longhorns were 22-0 when they held an opponent to 59 points or less. In the 2023-24 season Texas ranks ninth in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game at 26.75.
• ASSIST-TO: The Longhorns rank first in the Big 12 and third in the NCAA this season in assists to turnover ratio. Texas is averaging 23.8 assists per game and 11.5 turnovers per game.
• ON THE BOARDS: The Longhorns are +18.3 in rebounding margin this season and have a 92-20 advantage in second-chance points.
• POUNDING THE PAINT: The Longhorns have had a significant post presence this season as they lead opponents 212-86 in paint points, including an 80-36 edge over UT Arlington last time out.
• NO. 1 RECRUITING CLASS: On Nov. 8 the Longhorns signed what ESPN.Com has ranked as the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. The Horns are the only school in the country with two top-10 signees.
• GONZALES CAREER SCORING: Shaylee Gonzales knows how to put the ball in the basket. Gonzales has scored 2,047 career points, which ranks fifth among all active women's DI college basketball players.
I believe that Texas has not faced a team like UConn and that UConn's ball pressure is going to force Texas into turning the ball over more than they are used to. But, it also appears that the Longhorns can bring significant ball pressure of their own...so, this could be a very good defensive game with the score being in the seventies.
MATCH-UPS:
Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Sr. vs Taylor Jones 6'4" Sr. - Aaliyah is playing somewhat below her offensive capabilities. She is currently averaging 14.3 points a game...I believe Aaliyah is closer to a 20-point-per-game player. She is also averaging 6.7 rebounds per game and I also believe that this is below her capabilities...I believe that Aaliyah is actually a 9-rebound per-game player. The question in this game is will Aaliyah return to form or will Taylor Jones continue being the scoring machine she was earlier in this season? Statistically, this match-up is a tie...but, Aaliyah is a strong player who can body up her opponent...I am going with a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Caroline Ducharrme 6'2" Jr. vs Amina Muhammad 6'4" So. - I am not even sure if Caroline is going to play...if she doesn't that creates a terrible mismatch at this position unless Ice Brady can raise her quality of play. It isn't feasible to expect Amari to step in and be a starter nor is it palpable to expect Ashlynn Shade, Q, or KK to be able to step up to defend a 6'4" player like Amina. The only other option is to move Aubrey over to defend Amina which would pave the way for either Ashlynn or KK to start on Madison. So, with this uncertainty in mind if the match-up between Caroline and Amina were to happen Caroline has proven that she can defend a taller player and she has proven that she can be that other scorer that UConn needs...unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this season. Caroline's numbers are way down. Amina is a solid 10-point and 7-rebound player. ADVANTAGE - TEXAS If Aubrey gets the Assignment then: ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Gr. vs Madison Booker 6'1" Fr. - Again this is a match-up that may not happen as it depends on what happens with Caroline Ducharme. Aubrey's and Madison's statistical comparison is very close with Aubrey having a slight advantage. However, with the kind of defense that Aubrey will bring to Madison, I suspect that Madison will not have a good day. ADVANTAGE - UCONN If the assignment becomes a team effort of Ashlynn, KK, and Q I still think it will continue to be ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Jr. vs Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" Gr. - Shaylee has scored over 2000 points in her career but she will be playing against a bonified candidate for player of the year in Paige Beuckers. I expect that Paige will be too much for Shaylee in most areas. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl 5'11" Sr. vs Rori Harmon 5'6" Jr. - This match-up could prove to be the most exciting match-up of the game. Both are defensive stoppers, both can distribute the basketball and both can score if they have to. Rory is closer to mid-season form than Nika ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
BENCH:
As I listed above the UConn bench is somewhat anemic and does not produce anywhere near what the Texas bench produces Texas has 32.6 points; and 23.5 rebounds; UConn has 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds coming off the bench. Additionally, Texas brings 6'4", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1" 6'1", 6'0", and 5'11" while, UConn brings 6'6", 6'3", 5'11", 5'10", 5'9", 5'9". ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
INTANGIBLES:
This game is being played in Austin, TX. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with the UConn roster... ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
COACHING:
The one consistency on this team is the coaching...Geno et al. are more experienced and are more accomplished... ADVANTAGE UCONN
SCORE:
UConn - 76
Texas - 67
MOV - 9
I think we are all in agreement that having the past week off was a good thing for the UConn Huskies. The Cayman Islands was pretty rough going for the Huskies. UCLA was already in mid-season form while the Huskies were reeling from the loss of Azzi for the season and Caroline Ducharme being out of the line-up and uncertainty surrounding if and when she will return. Paige coming off a 500-plus day lay-off due to her own injuries was expected to put the team on her shoulders and pull off a couple of wins. Despite a 31-point effort in game one and a 19-point effort in game two...she almost pulled it off. However, UCLA proved to be too much for UConn (12 threes is hard to overcome) when you don't have the shooters to match it.
Next up is 7-0 Texas...but, let's not get ahead of ourselves here...they haven't really played anyone of consequence yet. Their opponent's RPI rankings are as follows: 63, 133, 181, 183, 190, 191 and 208. Texas' opponent's SOS is also unimpressive and their collective SOS rankings are as follows: 24, 32, 45, 77, 80, 152, and 191. Finally, the Massey ratings of their opponents are as follows: 77, 75, 147, 189, 231, 234 and 249.
Texas starts: Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" graduate guard; Rori Harmon, 5'6" junior guard; Madison Booker 6'1" freshman forward; Amina Muhammad 6'4" freshman forward and Taylor Jones 6'4"senior forward. Their starters average 56.3 points of the Longhorn's 88.9 points or 63.3 percent of the team's total game points.
The Longhorns bench accounts for 32. 6 points and 23.5 rebounds. Their bench has 6'0" Shay Holle who plays 24.3 minutes per game; 6'4" Kadikja Faye - 16.4 minutes per game; 6'2" Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda - 17.3 minutes; 6'1" Aaliyah Moore - 13.9 minutes; and 5'11" Gisella Maul - 13.6 minutes per game.
UConn's bench accounts for 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds...this production would appear to be quite anemic compared to the bench production from Texas.
The obvious thing that jumps out to me is that Texas has quite a bit of size on their roster and there isn't even any mention of the 6'9" freshman (Abby Boutilcer) who hasn't played in any of their games yet.
They are not a particularly good 3-point shooting team, but they put a lot of points up on the board. Again this is probably because they haven't really played anybody who was that good yet. For all their size they only average 4.3 blocks per game. They average about 20 assists with only 11.3 turnovers per game. They force 25.5 turnovers per game and average 20 steals per game...indicating that they can put pressure on the ball and UConn will have to take care of the basketball.
Rory Harmon was named a pre-season All-American honorable mention...Rory is also the Big 12's pre-season Player of the Year. Last year she was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. She holds the school record for most assists per game at 7.4 and last year was ranked 4th in the country for assists per game. Rori was also named to the 2024 16-person list for the Wade Trophy for Player of the Year
Notables:
• HORNS ON D: Last season the Longhorns were 22-0 when they held an opponent to 59 points or less. In the 2023-24 season Texas ranks ninth in the NCAA in turnovers forced per game at 26.75.
• ASSIST-TO: The Longhorns rank first in the Big 12 and third in the NCAA this season in assists to turnover ratio. Texas is averaging 23.8 assists per game and 11.5 turnovers per game.
• ON THE BOARDS: The Longhorns are +18.3 in rebounding margin this season and have a 92-20 advantage in second-chance points.
• POUNDING THE PAINT: The Longhorns have had a significant post presence this season as they lead opponents 212-86 in paint points, including an 80-36 edge over UT Arlington last time out.
• NO. 1 RECRUITING CLASS: On Nov. 8 the Longhorns signed what ESPN.Com has ranked as the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. The Horns are the only school in the country with two top-10 signees.
• GONZALES CAREER SCORING: Shaylee Gonzales knows how to put the ball in the basket. Gonzales has scored 2,047 career points, which ranks fifth among all active women's DI college basketball players.
I believe that Texas has not faced a team like UConn and that UConn's ball pressure is going to force Texas into turning the ball over more than they are used to. But, it also appears that the Longhorns can bring significant ball pressure of their own...so, this could be a very good defensive game with the score being in the seventies.
MATCH-UPS:
Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Sr. vs Taylor Jones 6'4" Sr. - Aaliyah is playing somewhat below her offensive capabilities. She is currently averaging 14.3 points a game...I believe Aaliyah is closer to a 20-point-per-game player. She is also averaging 6.7 rebounds per game and I also believe that this is below her capabilities...I believe that Aaliyah is actually a 9-rebound per-game player. The question in this game is will Aaliyah return to form or will Taylor Jones continue being the scoring machine she was earlier in this season? Statistically, this match-up is a tie...but, Aaliyah is a strong player who can body up her opponent...I am going with a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Caroline Ducharrme 6'2" Jr. vs Amina Muhammad 6'4" So. - I am not even sure if Caroline is going to play...if she doesn't that creates a terrible mismatch at this position unless Ice Brady can raise her quality of play. It isn't feasible to expect Amari to step in and be a starter nor is it palpable to expect Ashlynn Shade, Q, or KK to be able to step up to defend a 6'4" player like Amina. The only other option is to move Aubrey over to defend Amina which would pave the way for either Ashlynn or KK to start on Madison. So, with this uncertainty in mind if the match-up between Caroline and Amina were to happen Caroline has proven that she can defend a taller player and she has proven that she can be that other scorer that UConn needs...unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this season. Caroline's numbers are way down. Amina is a solid 10-point and 7-rebound player. ADVANTAGE - TEXAS If Aubrey gets the Assignment then: ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Gr. vs Madison Booker 6'1" Fr. - Again this is a match-up that may not happen as it depends on what happens with Caroline Ducharme. Aubrey's and Madison's statistical comparison is very close with Aubrey having a slight advantage. However, with the kind of defense that Aubrey will bring to Madison, I suspect that Madison will not have a good day. ADVANTAGE - UCONN If the assignment becomes a team effort of Ashlynn, KK, and Q I still think it will continue to be ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Jr. vs Shaylee Gonzales 5'10" Gr. - Shaylee has scored over 2000 points in her career but she will be playing against a bonified candidate for player of the year in Paige Beuckers. I expect that Paige will be too much for Shaylee in most areas. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl 5'11" Sr. vs Rori Harmon 5'6" Jr. - This match-up could prove to be the most exciting match-up of the game. Both are defensive stoppers, both can distribute the basketball and both can score if they have to. Rory is closer to mid-season form than Nika ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
BENCH:
As I listed above the UConn bench is somewhat anemic and does not produce anywhere near what the Texas bench produces Texas has 32.6 points; and 23.5 rebounds; UConn has 20.5 points and 9.2 rebounds coming off the bench. Additionally, Texas brings 6'4", 6'4", 6'2", 6'1" 6'1", 6'0", and 5'11" while, UConn brings 6'6", 6'3", 5'11", 5'10", 5'9", 5'9". ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
INTANGIBLES:
This game is being played in Austin, TX. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with the UConn roster... ADVANTAGE - TEXAS
COACHING:
The one consistency on this team is the coaching...Geno et al. are more experienced and are more accomplished... ADVANTAGE UCONN
SCORE:
UConn - 76
Texas - 67
MOV - 9
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