Game Analysis - Game 5 - UConn vs Michigan

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Michigan is ranked #6, leapfrogging 8 spots after giving a "behind the woodshed" beating to overrated Notre Dame. Michigan currently has an RPI of 23 and an SOS of 15, while UConn has an RPI of 2 and an SOS of 3. Michigan's starting five enjoys a height advantage in four of the five starting positions. Michigan is a balanced basketball team with five players averaging double figures for the season. Michigan has been putting up huge numbers: 108 (exhibition game); 100 (Canisius); 84 (Harvard); 93 (Notre Dame); and 120 (Binghamton). However, putting up large numbers against such numbers against massively inferior competition is not impressive. Their win over Notre Dame was a surprise, but I don't think people realize just yet how overrated Notre Dame is. They are one-dimensional with only one star player, Hildalgo.

I really don't think Michigan has or will face any team this season quite like UConn. UConn is a very deep team with players who can play multiple positions. I have said since the beginning of the season that it is going to be very difficult for teams to keep UConn from scoring 90 points. There will be teams that hold UConn in the 80s and 90s, but I think that UConn will flirt with 90 points per game all season long. That being said, Michigan is putting up some big numbers. UConn must get its offense going while making life difficult on the defensive end for Michigan to get into its rhythm.

MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" Senior Forward vs Ashley Sofiknich, 6'3" Junior Forward - Ashley is one of two starting players for Michigan who is 6'3" (twin towers). Ashley averages 10.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, .7 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. Serah has been ramping up her game lately as she becomes more familiar with UConn's offensive sets. Serah is the only starting player who has a size advantage over her opponent. She is averaging 8.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals, and .8 blocks per game. If Serah can continue to build on her latest performances, then UConn will have a solid big in the starting lineup. ADVANTAGE - EVEN


Sarah Strong, 6'2" Sophomore Forward vs Te'yala Delfosse, 6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward - Te'yala Delfosse is the second pillar of Michigan's "twin towers" starting lineup. She averages 10.2 points, 1.0 three-pointers, 5. rebounds, l.3 assists, and .8 steals. Te'yala has not faced anyone as multi-faceted as UConn's Sarah Strong. Sarah is UConn's most prolific player. Sarah averages a team 20.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists,, 3.2 steals and 2.5 blocks per game. She also averages 1.5 three-pointers per game. She is an absolute stat stuffer, a double-double threat every game and on occasions flirts with a triple-double. She is currently playing like the player of the year and I expect that to continue. It is the old UConn adage, "We have Sarah and you don't". ADVANTAGE - UCONN


Azzi Fudd, 5'11" Graduate Guard vs Alivia Olsen, 6'1" Sophomore Guard - Olivia is Michigan's most prolific player. At 6'1", she is a big guard who can score, shoot the three, rebound, and defend. Olivia averages a team-high 17.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Olivia shoots the three-ball at about 38 percent. While Azzi gives up 2 inches to Olivia, her defense is capable of slowing down Olivia. Azzi matches Olivia's points per game at 17.8. She also averages 2.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 steals, and knocks down 3 three-pointers per game. Azzi shoots the three-ball at 46 percent. On paper, these two players look very similar, but I believe that Azzi has a slight edge. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN


KK Arnold, 5'9 Junior Guard vs Mila Holloway, 5'10" Sophomore Guard - Mila is a scoring guard averaging 14.2 points per game. She also averages 5.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 3.5 steals per game. Mila makes .7 three-pointers per game, shooting the 3-ball at 40 percent. KK can be a lockdown defender, and she will need to play tough defense if she is going to prevail in this matchup. KK averages 7.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. So far this season, KK has not been shooting the three-ball well.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - MICHIGAN


Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" Junior Guard vs Syla Swords, 6'0" Sophomore Guard - Syla Swords is a solid basketball player. At 6'0", she gives Michigan good size at the guard spot. Syla averages 12.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.0 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn gives up two inches in this matchup, and it makes me wonder if Geno might start Blanca Quinones, who at 6'2" would negate Michigan's advantage at this spot. Ashlynn is in a bit of a slump and is averaging 6.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Ashlynn averages .75 three-pointers per game. If Blanca doesn't get the start, I would look for an early substitution.
ADVANTAGE - MICHIGAN

BENCH:

Michigan's bench averages 35 points, 14.9 rebounds per game. UConn's bench averages 37.8 points and 17.8 rebounds. UConn faces tougher competition than does Michigan. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

The game is a home game for UConn. We have Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, and they don't. UConn has played tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 83
MICHIGAN - 72
MOV - 11

 

[Centerstream]

I'm interested to see who Blanca subs in for, Ashlynn or Serah. I would like to see a front line of Serah, Sarah and Blanca if we get off to a good game on offense. I really think that Serah's B1G experience will help us against Michigan even though that didn't seem to be the case against Ohio State. I was expecting more minutes from her but I guess we didn't need them with the way Blanca played.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you so much, sensei!

I think I disagree with some of your advantage calls.

• Delfosse and Sofilkanich are mainly a platoon from what I’ve seen. KBA is not likely to play them together much, I imagine for team speed considerations. This means the primary matchup for both of them is Serah and Jana. I’d call any permutation of that matchup Advantage UConn. And since either of them will occasionally be stuck trying to contain Sarah, that’s an even bigger Advantage UConn.
• But then who would be Sarah’s main matchup? My guess is either Olson or Swords, and either one would be a huge Advantage UConn. Dudley will sub for either of them and the advantage situation still won’t change.
• I’m going to guess Ash will start, though Blanca will get at least 20 mins. Whether it’s against Olson or Swords, I think this is Advantage UConn. Ash will give up a couple inches to either of them. But that hasn’t deterred her before. And Blanca is simply an X factor that will be difficult to manage for either of them.
• As for the guards, KBA usually starts both Holloway and Quarles-Daniels. That means with all the switching that is likely, the question is how they’ll matchup against KK and Kayleigh and Azzi and Allie. Judging from the ND game, KBA didn’t feel comfortable subbing with of her guards out even with a huge lead. What this says to me is that there is no answer for Azzi, and KK and Kayleigh are more than enough to win their matchups.
• Finally, I think there’s no way Michigan’s bench is equivalent to UConn’s bench.

Last thing I’d say is that Geno has no problem switching 1-5. But I doubt Michigan is prepared to do the same. This means there will be some pic-and-roll opportunities available. This is merely the consequences every opponent will face with our lineup.