Game Analysis - Game 4 - UConn vs Fairleigh Dickenson

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This Wednesday's game will be a historic one. Geno and CD will more than likely become the winningest basketball coaches in the history of the sport, an honor that includes both men's and women's teams. I believe every player on the UConn team is going to want to see time on the floor because of the historical game that it is. They will certainly have the chance against the diminutive FDU who can only boast of three players who are 6 feet or taller...they are 6'0", 6'2", and 6'2". UConn will have their way in the paint. Tanesia Brown, 6'2" is their most effective post player. She has help from Lilly Parke, 6'2" who is FDU's only other effective post player. FDU loves to chuck up three-pointers. They have 4 players who take 4 or more three-pointers per game. Ann Renniger shoots the three-ball at .435, Lilly Park shoots it at .500 and Kailee McDonald shoots the three-ball at .538. FDU has 16 players on their roster but will likely dress 14. As far as minutes go, they will probably go 10 deep. The starters will all play significant minutes somewhere between 27 and 34 minutes each. The next five players will average somewhere between 8 and 12 minutes.

FDU has not faced nor will they this season any team like they will see when UConn takes the floor. FDU averages 65.8 points a game but that is going to be a difficult task against UConn's defense. They average 8.4 three-pointers per game. They average 39 rebounds per game. They turn the ball over 14.6 times per game but I expect to see that number move significantly on Wednesday night. FDU averages 3.8 steals per game.

UConn will more than likely lead to UConn scoring easy baskets. I see UConn heading to triple digit scoring even if the second team plays significant minutes.

ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady, 6"3" vs Lilly Parke, 6'2" - Lilly averages 11.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. Ice Brady averages 7.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. I believe that Lilly will have a difficult time containing Ice and Ice will have a good scoring game. Ice will make life difficult for Lilly and Lilly will be held below her averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" vs Tanesia Brown, 6'2" - Tanesia is FDU's best post player as she averages 11.6 points, 1.8 assists, and 8.2 rebounds per game. Sarah Strong came into UConn as the number one recruit in the land and she has been proving that she deserved that ranking. Sarah is averaging 14.7 points, 4.3 assists, 2.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 8.0 rebounds per game. I know it is early but those are All-American numbers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Buecker, 6'0" vs Ava Renniger, 5'6" - This will be a memorable game for Ava as she will be playing on the court with arguably the best player in the nation in Paige Bueckers. I am not sure if Paige will be defending Ava but on paper at least is looks like that may be what happens. Even though Eva is FDU's best offensive player averaging 14.6 points per game...Paige will make it extremely difficult for her to score. Meanwhile, Paige will be able to score pretty much at will in this one and likely will only play a little over 20 minutes. This will be a huge mismatch and it won't get much better when Geno substitutes Paige out of the game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Abby Conklin, 5'7" - Abby averages 6.4 points, hits 1.6 three-pointers, gets 3.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and steals the ball 1.2 times per game. Not a bad stat line however, I expect Ashlynn to have a bounce-back game from the off-game she had against NC. Ashlynn averages 9.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, hits, 1.3 three-pointers, 1.7 assists, and gets 3.3 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" vs Abaigeal Babore, 5'6" - Abaigeal Babore averages 9.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Kaitlynn is still adjusting to UConn basketball but she is getting better all the time. Kaitlynn currently averages 7.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1 steal per game. Kaitlynn is struggling to find her three-point shot but I think this would be a good game for her to hit a couple. While I think that Kaitlynn will get the better of Abaigeal in this match-up I am going to let the stats on paper influence this one. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

The bench play in this game will be overwhelmingly in favor of UCONN. Too much size, too much talent...too much scoring. The bench will see significant play against FDU's starters but they will hold their own. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Once again...the experience of the UConn coaching staff makes this decision easy. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

What more do you want...UConn playing at home, Geno and CD going for the big win, and the possibility that Azzi will make her season debut...can you imagine the excitement in the gym when Azzi takes the floor? Superior play and talent will lead to a large margin of victory in this one.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:
UConn - 101
FDU - 48
MOV - 53

 

[caseyb7]

Congrats to all of us in UConn nation who have watched over the years. I hope to attend live - have to see on weather & it is sold out, but will try.

My question pertains to whether or not Geno will take the foot off the gas with a big lead - "to practice the half court", or not embarrass an opponent. I thought I saw that pattern emerge this year where Geno is starting to play the score - unlike his history.

Against NC I thought we stuttered and had trouble - some against the zone but also keeping our foot on the gas & regaining momentum after we'd lost it.

While I am empathetic on mismatches and not running up the score, will playing at different speeds disrupt team timing down the road?

 

[maple]

Good write-up as always.

People at the Syracuse game told me that UConn will steamroll FDU. I am never one to take any win for granted, but the eye test from yesterday has me inclined to agree with them. FDU will play hard no matter what, but they are going to be in over their heads with the height mismatches and overall talent discrepancy and athleticism.

Expect FDU to hit a couple of 3s if/when they get open looks. But I wouldn't worry about it. We should be able to dominate in the paint and on rebounds. No need to go crazy from the perimeter. I foresee our defense generating a nice # of TOs and fast break points. This is the type of game where it should be a done deal at halftime and we can give the bench some nice minutes.

EDIT: I just realized FDU is in the same conference as CCSU and Le Moyne (the lesser Syracuse team). I could potentially see them play three whole times this year if I wanted to go to their game at Le Moyne.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04.

I only have 2 questions.

1. Will Sarah actually guard Parkes? She’s a great perimeter shooter and I wonder if Geno will have Sarah chase her out there. I’m sure Sarah could do it effectively. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paige and Morgan and Allie share that responsibility. Clearly on offense, Parkes will have to guard Sarah and that will be challenge for her. She might not do badly at it since she’s and athletic 6’2”, but I expect Sarah to prevail.
2. I also wonder if we’ll see a 100 pt game. I expect to see Geno play more of the roster and try to tune some things up. Also, Azzi may get some minutes to feel her way back into playing. I don’t doubt that the girls can hold FDU under 50. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score only in 80s or 90s.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks again, @cferraro04.

I only have 2 questions.

1. Will Sarah actually guard Parkes? She’s a great perimeter shooter and I wonder if Geno will have Sarah chase her out there. I’m sure Sarah could do it effectively. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paige and Morgan and Allie share that responsibility. Clearly on offense, Parkes will have to guard Sarah and that will be challenge for her. She might not do badly at it since she’s and athletic 6’2”, but I expect Sarah to prevail.
2. I also wonder if we’ll see a 100 pt game. I expect to see Geno play more of the roster and try to tune some things up. Also, Azzi may get some minutes to feel her way back into playing. I don’t doubt that the girls can hold FDU under 50. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them score only in 80s or 90s.

Regarding your questions, I expect FDU to play both 6'2" women. Given Geno's projected starting line-up, our two bigs are likely to be Ice Brady and Sarah Strong. Given FDU's other starting players which are 5'6", 5'6", and 5'7" I can't see our bigs chasing around these three point guards. Looking at the statistics that FDU's post players have put up this season and not being familiar with FDU's players I match Ice and Sarah with the post player who most closely mirrors their stats. Hence, Sarah matches up statistically with Tanesia and Ice matches up better with Lilly. If you think that Lilly may be more perimeter-oriented, I agree that Sarah will spend more time guarding Lilly than Tanesia. In contrast, I am confident that Sarah could effectively guard Lilly. I would be concerned that Ice may get into some foul trouble guarding Tanesia...but, then again, I guess I shouldn't worry as we do have Jana as a backup.

Regarding the 100-point game, it is always a challenge to predict what Geno will do. Will he as you say work on the half-court game, or will he want to run some specific plays to see what kind of offense the 2nd team can produce in case they are called upon in a future game? Of course, if he elects to work on the half-court game the score will be in the 80s. If he lets the dogs out I don't think you can keep this team under 100. Azzi Fudd is the wild card in this one. I have seen players of Azzi ability come back from an injury and have a fantastic game as an adrenalin rush for just being happy to be out there.

 

[Forego]

Congrats to all of us in UConn nation who have watched over the years. I hope to attend live - have to see on weather & it is sold out, but will try.

My question pertains to whether or not Geno will take the foot off the gas with a big lead - "to practice the half court", or not embarrass an opponent. I thought I saw that pattern emerge this year where Geno is starting to play the score - unlike his history.

Against NC I thought we stuttered and had trouble - some against the zone but also keeping our foot on the gas & regaining momentum after we'd lost it.

While I am empathetic on mismatches and not running up the score, will playing at different speeds disrupt team timing down the road?

Pedal to the metal - but with plenty of bench playing time.

 

[Bone Dog]

Regarding your questions, I expect FDU to play both 6'2" women. Given Geno's projected starting line-up, our two bigs are likely to be Ice Brady and Sarah Strong. Given FDU's other starting players which are 5'6", 5'6", and 5'7" I can't see our bigs chasing around these three point guards. Looking at the statistics that FDU's post players have put up this season and not being familiar with FDU's players I match Ice and Sarah with the post player who most closely mirrors their stats. Hence, Sarah matches up statistically with Tanesia and Ice matches up better with Lilly. If you think that Lilly may be more perimeter-oriented, I agree that Sarah will spend more time guarding Lilly than Tanesia. In contrast, I am confident that Sarah could effectively guard Lilly. I would be concerned that Ice may get into some foul trouble guarding Tanesia...but, then again, I guess I shouldn't worry as we do have Jana as a backup.

Regarding the 100-point game, it is always a challenge to predict what Geno will do. Will he as you say work on the half-court game, or will he want to run some specific plays to see what kind of offense the 2nd team can produce in case they are called upon in a future game? Of course, if he elects to work on the half-court game the score will be in the 80s. If he lets the dogs out I don't think you can keep this team under 100. Azzi Fudd is the wild card in this one. I have seen players of Azzi ability come back from an injury and have a fantastic game as an adrenalin rush for just being happy to be out there.

I agree he’s not going to have them play half speed to prevent 100. I just don’t know if the non-starters will generate that much offense yet. I certainly hope they can.

You make a good point about not wanting Sarah guarding one of the little guards. That doesn’t make sense.

 

[Next 12]

I like things simple. UCONN will steamroll right through FDU's team and win by 50+... GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[HopJim]

UConn subs will rule.