Game Analysis - Game 3 - UConn vs North Carolina

[cferraro04]

General Analysis

This is my first game analysis for this season. I waited for a couple of games to see who the likely starters were. It appears that at least for now Geno is going with: Sarah Strong 6'2" Freshman - Forward; Paige Bueckers - 6'0 Redshirt Senior- Guard; Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" Sophomore - Guard, Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9" Graduate - Guard; and Ice Brady- 6'3" Redshirt Sophomore - Forward. The other five active players, at least for now are all managing to play significant minutes. I imagine as the season goes on there will be other players added to the line-up and the minutes for the non-starters will start to diminish because they will be distributed among more players, ie., Azzi Fudd, Ayanna Patterson, and Aubrey Griffin. So far we have four players averaging double figures: Paige Bueckers, Sarah Strong, Ashlynn Shade, and surprise Jana El-Alfy. It may be a little too early in the season to tell but UConn is slightly anemic in the rebounding category only averaging 35 per game. Our three-point shooting hasn't really caught on yet as we are only averaging 7.5 threes a game. I expect this statistic to vastly improve as the season progresses especially after Azzi Fudd is inserted into the line-up. Our defense, while it hasn't really been tested yet is looking pretty good. I think the guard play of North Carolina may tell us something more about our ability to defend the basketball. After 2 games 28.5 points per game off of Turnovers isn't too shabby.

A quick look at North Carolina. They have an experienced team starting with three graduate students, one senior and one sophomore. Their likely starters are Allyssa Ustby - 6'1" Graduate - Guard/Forward; Lexi Donarski - 6'0" Graduate - Guard; Kelly Reniye - 5'7" Sophomore - Guard; Grace Townshend - 5'5" Graduate - Guard and Maria Gakdeng - 6'3" Senior - Forward / Center. North Carolina has also started Trayanna Crisp - 5'8" Junior - Guard and Blanca Thomas - 6'5" Freshman - Center. Their other impactful players are Laila Hull - 6'1" Red Shirt Freshman - Guard and Ciera Toomey - 6'4" Freshman - Forward.

So far North Carolina is averaging 75.3 points per game while giving up 50.0 points per game. They average 8.7 three-pointers per game. So far they appear to be a decent rebounding team averaging 42.7 rebounds per game. It should be noted, however, that the level of competition that they have been playing hasn't been that good. Their opponents are in the bottom fifth of the rankings. It is still a little difficult to assess how good North Carolina's defense will be against UConn because they have yet to face the level of competition that UConn will bring on Friday night.

Match-ups

Ice Brady - 6'3" Redshirt Sophomore Forward vs Maria Gakdeng - 6'3" Senior Forward/Center - Maria averages 6.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1 block per game. Ice averages 6.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. These players on paper seem to be pretty evenly matched. However, Geno will bring in Jana El-Alfy - a 6'5" redshirt freshman Center for Ice, and North Carolina will more than likely bring in Blanca Thomas - a 6'5" freshman Center. So while the starters may play even I think when you consider both players at this position that UConn gets the advantage but, going with the starters only - ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0 Redshirt Senior Guard vs Lexi Denoarski 6'0 Graduate Guard - Lexi is North Carolina's best scorer and all-around player so it is only fitting that she should match up with Paige. Lexi averages 15.0 points per game, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.0 steals per game. She also averages 3.0 three-pointers per game. Paige so far this season is averaging 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.5 steals per game. Paige is averaging 1.5 three-pointers per game...but, we know she is capable of knocking down multiple threes per game. Paige's overall game, skill-level, and defense will prove too much for Lexi. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong - 6'2" Freshman Forward vs Alyssa Ustby - 6'1" Graduate Guard/Forward - Alyssa is another player who can fill up the stat sheet for North Carolina. She averages 10.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals and gets 1.3 blocks per game. Sarah Strong on the other hand averages 15.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 4.0 steals, .5 blocks per game. Alyssa has a lot of experience at the college level but Sarah is a prodigy and wasn't the number one player out of high school for nothing. Sarah will get the job done playing off of Alyssa.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" Sophomore Guard vs Kelly Reniye 5'7" Sophomore Guard - Kelly averages 9.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.0 steals, and hits on 1.5 threes per game. Ashlynn is playing very well this season and is averaging 12.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 4.0 steals, and hits 1.5 three-pointers per game. These players appear to be pretty evenly matched with Ashlynn having the slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9" Graduate Guard vs Grace Townsend - 5'5" Graduate Guard - Grace is a pass-first point guard averaging 4.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.3 steals. Kaitlyn is adjusting to a new team and seems to be getting better each game. She averages 6.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. These players seem to be almost the same player. This should be a very interesting match-up.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH
UConn's bench is much deeper this year than it was last year. They will be bringing 29 points, 17.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 3.0 steals, and 3.5 three-pointers per game while North Carolina will be bringing 33.7 points, 18.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 5.3 steals, and 3.5 three-pointers. While both teams have deep benches and even though UConn has faced tougher competition than North Carolina has and based on what is on paper.
ADVANTAGE - NORTH CAROLINA

INTANGIBLES
This is a home game for North Carolina and UConn has had difficulty playing against ranked teams on the road. However, this is a deeper, bigger and more talented team than we have had lately...We have a more aggressive Paige Bueckers who is looking to score. I think we cast away our road demons and we take this one. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING
I really think even having this category is unfair...because there is Geno and Chris and everyone else. ADVANTAGE - UCONN


UConn - 87

North Carolina - 68

MOV - 19

 

[DEpup]

I think Gakdeng is out with injury. Otherwise, great info.

 

[Zarathustra]

I think Gakdeng is out with injury. Otherwise, great info.

I just read an article about H.C. Courtney Banghart, UNC, and
the game tonight. In reading the article it leads one to the consideration
that last year's game was closer than the final score would indicate.
Reniya Kelly was out for the second half in that game due to
a concussion protocol incident in the first half. The issue of
Maria Gakdeng playing or not playing is an elephant in the
room, a swing of having or not having a 6'3" senior. I have lowered my "prognostication"
guess, but I am still unabashedly convinced that UCONN, led
by Paige, will (AGAIN) display the developing excellent UCONN
chemistry and team play.... GO UCONN! EVERYBODY EATS!!! Are you
watching the game, Nika?

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank goodness you’re back, @cferraro04! And thanks for another great analysis.

If Gakdeng doesn’t play, as @DEpup suggests, it could pose real problems for UNC. Thomas and Toomey have lots of potential, but little experience and they haven’t faced any comparable bigs yet. I think facing Ice (and even Jana) will be a sort of baptism by fire for them. Ice only has one season as a backup, but even that could be too much for UNC given how she’s playing now. And though Jana has only three games under her belt, she is much stronger and fiercer than anything Thomas and Toomey have seen yet.

I think you’re probably right about Strong having an advantage over Ustby. Last time Ustby matched up against Paige and that didn’t go so well for her. This time against Sarah is likely to be no better.

UNC’s guard play is a strength for them, and is probably better without Deja Kelly. Donarski, Reniya Kelly, Townsend, and the freshman Leila Hull (who had a breakout game on Tuesday) are a solid group. Indiya Nivar will probably also miss today’s game and that’s a loss since she is a talented big guard. Kaitlyn and KK are likely to manage well against Kelly and Townsend. Paige has done well against Lexi before and will likely have her way again this time. If Geno needs 20 pts or 30 pts, Paige will deliver them.

The interesting case is Ash, who played pretty well against UNC last season. But her game has progressed significantly since then. I suspect that playing next to Paige and Sarah, two significant scoring threats, will open lots of opportunities for her. And on defense her skills and agressive instincts seem to be reaching a new level. Also, it should be really fascinating to see how a former Indiana Miss Basketball does against Ash.

Speaking of defense, having watched UNC’s first two games (unfortunately their last game is not available online) and their defense does not seem to have gelled yet. And they have not encountered any defense on the scale of what they’ll see against UConn. In particular, I have a feeling passes into the low post will be particularly difficult for them, which will make things hard for their young post players.

I think your score prediction is just about right.