Game Analysis - Game 22 - UConn vs Xavier

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn vs Xavier - Game 2: In the first matchup with Xavier, it was all UConn, with UConn winning 104 to 39. UConn had 6 players in double figures, with KK scoring 9 points. 12 of 13 UConn players scored. Caroline Ducharme was the only husky who did not score; even Gandy got on the board with 2 points. UConn's starters played between 19 and 23 minutes. All five of Xavier's starters played 28 or more minutes. UConn will have the same 5 starters, while Xavier will be adding Savannah White, 6'2" - Senior G/F, a definite upgrade, who will replace Lucia Martinez-Lopez, 6'1" - Sophomore G/F. Lucia averages 2.0 points and 1.8 rebounds per game, while Savannah averages 7.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. Xavier will only play 8 players.

Xavier's RPI = #198; SOS = #142; NET RATING = #188; DEFENSE RATING = #122
UConn's RPI = #1; SOS = #7; NET RATING = #1; DEFENSE RATING = #1

Clearly, Xavier will be outmanned, outgunned, and outclassed on both ends of the floor.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Geno Auriemma doesn't seem concerned about Serah Williams' injury, saying she "caught a knee in her calf." He joked that the three-hour bus ride back to Connecticut would make it feel better.

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs. Petra Oberilova, 6'2" - Senior Forward. Petra is averaging 4.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.2 three-pointers in 25.1 minutes of play per game. Serah is averaging 7.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .8 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 18.6 minutes of play per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward vs Savannah White, 6'2" - Senior Guard/Forward - Savannah, as stated above, did not play in game one and definitely is an upgrade for this 2nd matchup. Savannah averages 7.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. She averages 30.1 minutes of playing time per game. Sarah averages 18.9 points, 1.6 three-pointers, 8.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 3.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game on the number one team in the country while only averaging 27.3 minutes per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Mariyah Noel, 5'11" - Junior Guard - Mariyah plays 32.8 minutes per game. She is rarely on the bench. She is Xavier's best all-around player and will be a challenge for Azzi, whose individual defense has improved immensely this year. Mariyah averages 16.1 points, 1.2 three-pointers, 6.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and .6 blocks per game. Azzi averages 17.2 points, 2.9 three-pointers, 2.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.2 steals, and .4 blocks per game while playing 27.9 minutes per game. While Mariyah leads her team, and her stats are respectable, Azzi has played against much tougher competition. Moriyah was held to 9 points in the first outing against UConn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs MacKenzie Givens, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard/Forward - MacKenzie is averaging 11.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, .6 blocks, and .8 three-pointers per game in 29.3 minutes of play. Ashlynn is averaging 7.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. In this case, even though MacKenzie's stats are overall better than Ashlynn's, it must be noted that: 1. Ashlynn has consistently played against better competition; 2. Ashlynn averages 5 minutes less per game than MacKenzie. 3 UConn's team defense is the best in the country. In game one, MacKenzie scored 9 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 blocks, 1 three-pointer, and 0 steals, while Ashlynn scored 14 points, 4 three-pointers, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Meri Kanerva, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - Meri averages 9.5 points, 1.2 three-pointers, 2.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while playing 38 minutes per game. KK averages 7.2 points, .6 three-pointers, 2.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.7 steals per game while playing 24.3 minutes per game. In the first matchup, Meri played 30 minutes and scored 3 points on a three-pointer, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and had 6 turnovers. KK played 20 minutes and had 20 points, 1 three-pointer, 1 rebound, 5 assists, 5 steals, and 2 turnovers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

Xavier has a thin bench with only three players getting any significant minutes. Xavier will bring 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1 three-pointer, 1.9 assists, 1 steal, and .2 blocks off the bench.

UConn will bring 35.2 points, 14.6 rebounds, 3 three-pointers, 8.7 assists, 5.1 steals, and 1.7 blocks off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Home game for UConn at Gampel Pavilion, Best Defense in the Country, one of the best offenses in the country, number 1 RPI, number 1 NET Rating, number 7 SOS, Sarah and Azzi. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Head Coach- Billi Chambers. Chambers joined the Musketeers after spending 10 seasons at Iona University (2013-23). She led the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament twice (2015-16, 2022-23), captured two Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Regular-Season Championships (2013-14, 2022-23) and won two MAAC Tournament Championships (2015-16, 2022-23). The conference titles and NCAA Tournament appearances were program firsts.

The two-time MAAC Coach of the Year led the Gaels to a 26-7 (18-2 MAAC) record in 2022-23 and earned the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Three players earned All-MAAC honors this season, highlighted by Juana Camilion, who was named the MAAC Player of the Year and MAAC Defensive Player of the Year.

The Gaels finished the 2022-23 season ranked second in the NCAA in three-point field-goal percentage (.397), seventh in field-goal percentage (.474), and 16th in scoring defense (55.5 ppg). Iona also ranked 27th in field-goal percentage defense (.366). In 10 seasons at Iona, her scoring defense has ranked in the top-75 in the NCAA five times.

All told, Chambers has coached 21 All-MAAC honorees – including three MAAC Players of the Year, two MAAC Defensive Players of the Year, and two MAAC Rookies of the Year. Chambers was also named the Spalding Maggie Dixon Rookie Coach of the Year in 2013-14.

The 26 overall wins and 18 conference wins in 2013-14 and 2022-23 are program bests in Iona program history. All told, Chambers posted a 102-85 record in MAAC games during her tenure. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 102
Xavier - 41
MOV - 61

 

[Bone Dog]

The only question for me is whether Geno will rest Serah and play Jana for a lot more minutes. But there’s no telling. He may not want to disrupt overly his sequence of lineups in the first half.

 

[EricSD]

I don't think you give Ash enough credit. the ADVANTAGE - UCONN you posted after her analysis should be bigger and a better color... 😂

Kidding. Good stuff as always. Hard to really have much to say about a team we expect to beat by 60. I have a feeling Sarah and Azzi need to shoot early and often cuz about midway thru Q3 will be when they go to the bench and don't come back...

I also wonder if Serah will sit - in a way I hope so - would be nice to get more minutes for Blanca and Jana...

As a side note, I do hope Xavier is on an upwards trajectory. Several of the teams we've slaughtered in the BE actually looked really solid for a few decently long stretches. This year is just bad for the conference as Creighton and Marquette rebuild, but Depaul and Butler (and maybe Xavier) are pretty awful by the numbers...

 

[BobbyJ]

The biggest concern surrounding this contest will be if Auriemma is able to get the good pizza for after the game.

 

[Huskee11]

After a lethargic start on the defensive end against Seton Hall, this group will play like their hair is on fire on defense from the jump. Geno will remind them of that, but they won't need much reminding.

We don't know about Serah. I'm hoping she plays, even if it is restricted minutes.

Aaliyah played with many of these players, and they will want to put on a show for her.

This is a very tough situation for Xavier - on the road mid-week, maybe dealing with travel issues, coming off of a loss at home, clearly overmatched. I guess you just tell your team to play hard, do your best, and enjoy the atmosphere.

I think that predicted score is just about right. We outscored them 20-3 in the fourth quarter last time so I see us getting to 100+ again, even though the foot will be off the gas for much of the second half.

 

[drweo]

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs. Petra Oberilova, 6'2" - Senior Forward. Petra is averaging 47 points,

OOPS!😯

 

[victor64]

I was at the first game. Noel is a good player but as is the norm, UConn made life difficult. Givens plays hard. The rest....

 

[meyers7]

Another BE team to blow out. And not even a very good BE team. I imagine Geno will pull them back pretty early in this one.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Sensei, keep it coming! Great job as usual!
I love that even though you bleed UConn red, white and blue you give an honest comparison according to the stats!
You don't just pick UConn because they're #1 and your favs, you give the opponent some credit even though once the ball goes up they stand a snowball chance in hell of living up to their stats!
I appreciate your time and effort!

 

[Centerstream]

If Serah doesn't play, I'm wondering if Jana will start, Blanca subs in for her before the first media timeout and then Jana and Ayanna will split time subbing in for Blanca.
Either way, ADVANTAGE UCONN

 

[Cuango]

Regardless of whether Serah plays or not, (of course I want her to if she is healthy) I do hope Jana gets a lot of minutes in this game. Right before her injury, she seemed to have turned a corner and was playing by far her best basketball of the year. She really looked like she had cleared her head of everything and was rededicating herself to increasing her time on the floor. I’m anxious to see if she has maintained that through her recovery time. She really hasn’t played enough yet to be able to see much. Jana is one of my (many) favorites and I still see her becoming a big time player for us.

 

[Skeets]

If Serah doesn't play, I'm wondering if Jana will start, Blanca subs in for her before the first media timeout and then Jana and Ayanna will split time subbing in for Blanca.
Either way, ADVANTAGE UCONN

Does anyone have an update on Ice? She should have grown a new knee by now. The fact that she's not even in the discussion implies to me it's pretty serious.

 

[Centerstream]

Does anyone have an update on Ice? She should have grown a new knee by now. The fact that she's not even in the discussion implies to me it's pretty serious.

The latest news from Geno was that Ice, and Morgan, would probably not be available this season. And I think the last medical info was that she was battling knee inflammation but that info was put out weeks ago.

 

[ABCDFE]

Thanks for all the work and time you put into these.

The outcome is inevitable and the MOV will be large. I’m just looking forward to seeing some of the tweaks Geno said they’ve been working on. Precisely the offense sets to get some other shooters and scorers involved.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Live Stats &1:

• 1/28/2026: Xavier at UConn

&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games are available via this schedule.

• The link is removed for played games.
• The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.