Game Analysis - Game 21 - UConn vs Creighton

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Creighton on paper looks to be UConn's biggest challenge in the Big East Conference. Regardless, the UConn dogs are too big and talented to tame. Creighton has a two-headed monster that UConn's defense will have to contain. Morgan Maly a 6'1" Senior and Lauren Jensen a 5'10" senior collectively average 35.6 of Creighton's game average 74 points. Creighton's defense stands out when you look at the team stats. Creighton forces their opponents into an average of 15.5 turnovers per game while only committing 11.0 themselves. They have capable three-point shooters so UConn will have to defend the perimeter. Creighton only plays 9 players so depth may be a problem for them. They will start with two forwards and three guards. They have a lot of experience in their starting line-up as they will start with two graduate students, two seniors, and a junior.

RPI / SoS:

Creighton's RPI - 8
Creighton opponent's RPI - 3, 11, 17, 25, 44, 75, 99, 109, 113, 126, 133, 136, 138, 156, 156, 166, 190, 211, 262
Creighton's SoS - 21
Creighton opponent's SoS - 14, 23, 24, 41, 44, 48, 64, 65, 68, 69, 71, 105, 127, 148, 154, 158, 171, 171, 207

UConn's RPI - 5
UConn Opponent's RPI - 6, 9, 15, 32, 44, 45, 45, 57, 68, 69, 69, 98, 106, 107, 109, 113, 146, 167, 254, 262
UConn's SoS - 10
UConn Opponent's SoS - 4, 4, 6, 20, 22, 25, 28, 28, 32, 41, 42, 57, 65, 105, 127, 154,189, 227, 230, 357

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS Freshman - Center vs Mallory Brake, 6'0" - Graduate - Forward. Mallory averages 5.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.68 steals, and .8 blocks per game. Jana averages 5.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and .5 steals per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'5" - Freshman - Forward vs Morgan Maly, 6'1" - Senior - Forward - Morgan is one of Creighton's dynamic duo. She averages 17.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 blocks, .8 steals and 2.57 three-pointers per game. Sarah is likewise part of UConn's three-headed monster. Sarah averages 17.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and she hits 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - RS-Senior - Guard vs Lauren Jensen, 5'10" - Senior - Guard - Lauren is the 2nd part of the dynamic duo. She averages 17.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.42 steals, and she hits 2.21 three-pointers per game. Lauren will be facing UConn's best player, averaging 19.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and hits on 2.0 three-pointers per game. This should be an exciting match-up, but Paige is Paige and she is the best player in the country and is playing her best basketball now.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Kiani Lockett, 5''8" - Junior - Guard - Kiani Lockett averages 6.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and .84 steals per game. Azzi is averaging 11.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, and hits 1.9 three-pointers per game. I would look to see Azzi continue to build upon her success as she rounds out into form and gets closer to her historic averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlin Chen, 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs Molly Mogeson, 5'7" - Graduate - Guard - Molly is averaging 9.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.0 steals and Molly hits 1 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn has been playing better each game and is averaging 6'1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1 steal, and hits .6 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn will be challenged in this game by Molly and this may also be defense by committee with KK Arnold coming in and splitting minutes with Kaitlyn in an attempt to contain Molly.
ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

BENCH:

UConn will bring in 28.7 points, and 16.8 rebounds off of the bench. Creighton will bring in 16.7 points and 8.4 rebounds of their bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game will be played in Omaha, Nebraska but, I do not think that will bother UConn too much. Their suffocating defense, their ability to score the basketball, their size, and their talent will win this game for them. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Coaching:

Geno will keep his players focused on doing their job. The UConn cracker-jack coaching staff will have the Huskies ready to come and to get the win.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 82
CREIGHTON - 64
MOV - 18

 

[Dogdude]

Excellent. My only quibble would be with Kaitlin, who right now I feel would be at least even with Mogeson. I do agree that the primary job will be defensive in this case, with less emphasis on offense, but I'm not so sure that Kaitlin won't do well. Now that she's had a great offensive game, she's on the hook for another.

 

[JoePgh]

Excellent. My only quibble would be with Kaitlin, who right now I feel would be at least even with Mogeson. I do agree that the primary job will be defensive in this case, with less emphasis on offense, but I'm not so sure that Kaitlin won't do well. Now that she's had a great offensive game, she's on the hook for another.

And, as I said in the similar thread on the Villanova game, it would be more valid to compare Mogeson's productivity to the combined output of Kaitlyn and KK, which I'm pretty sure would exceed Mogeson's by a significant margin. As far as I know, Mogeson doesn't have a backup PG who is nearly comparable to KK in either minutes or productivity.

 

[yhun89]

Creighton will be our toughest opponent in the BE, their perimeter shooting is no joke and that’s our big weakness right now. I expect P, Sarah, Azzi, and others to have big offensive games if the Jays light it up from the arc.

Also, Sarah is 6’2. (She sure plays like 6’5 though…)

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!

I disagree with @yhun89 -- if you say Sarah is 6'5" I'm clinging to that like it's holy scripture.

I agree with everyone that Creighton is a tough matchup, even though they're small. They are tenacious and no one scraps for loose balls like they do. And their 3pt shooting is formidable, with 4 players at or near 40% -- Maly, Mogenson, Jensen and Townsend. This is also a very experienced lineup, mainly seniors and a couple of juniors. They know each other really well and don't tend to make mistakes. This is not a group it is easy to rattle.

My guess is that we'll see a lot of Morgan Cheli in this game. They are a small team, so even our small-ball lineup with Sarah and Morgan in the frontcourt -- and maybe Aubrey too -- will still be bigger than they are. Morgan also has the right mentality to play against a team of scrappers. I also wonder if we'll see some earlier minutes for Allie in this game. She could match up well against Creighton.

In the end, I suspect that we have too many shooters for them to deal with, and Sarah in particular. I think Paige will pick their interior defense apart with passes to Sarah in the paint, and Sarah will return the favor. Creighton usually plays a collapsing defense -- zone or sagging man -- to control the low post against taller teams. But if we hit from 3, they won't be able to do this so easily. This will mean they have to defend Jana or Ice straight up, which is not a winning formula for them.

 

[TheGOAT23]

Kaitlin Chen, 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs Molly Mogeson, 5'7" - Graduate - Guard - Kaitlyn has been playing better each game and is averaging 6.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1 steal, and hits .6 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn will be like a gnat pestering Molly. KK Arnold will sub in and continue to contain Molly. Gnat #2.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

 

[Next 12]

I repeat, there is no team in the BE that can or will beat Uconn. After the 1st quarter they will be playing catch-up and never will. Another training session against a tougher team, but not tough enough.I say again,Uconn will be undefeated in the BE and ready for the NCAA tournament. That's all I need to say. As a side note, LSU is no-longer undefeated, lost to So. Carolina tonight. Visiting cock should be very happy. Only one left ic UCLA. GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[Cuango]

This is a perfect time to be playing the second best team in the Big East. Having, hopefully, a tough game to go along with Tenn. in the run-up to South Carolina can only be a good thing for this team!

 

[cferraro04]

And, as I said in the similar thread on the Villanova game, it would be more valid to compare Mogeson's productivity to the combined output of Kaitlyn and KK, which I'm pretty sure would exceed Mogeson's by a significant margin. As far as I know, Mogeson doesn't have a backup PG who is nearly comparable to KK in either minutes or productivity.

JoePgh: I respectfully disagree with your assessment regarding the match-up with Kaitlyn and Molly. Molly plays 29.1 minutes per game, and Kaitlyn plays 24.3 minutes. More than likely Kennedy Townsend will sub in for Molly and KK will sub in for Kaitlyn. Kennedy averages 19.7 minutes and KK averages 21.7 minutes per game.

Collectively we get the following stats:

Kaitlyn and KK Arnold - 11.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 2.6 steals, and average a combined .8 from 3-point.
Molly and Kennedy scored 15.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.37 steals, and they have averaged a combined 2.15 from 3-point.

I still see this as: ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON*

*It might be possible to make an argument for: ADVANTAGE - EVEN given that the suffocating defense UConn is capable of playing and the fact that the UConn duo averages 2.1 more assists per game and 1.23 more steals per game.

 

[Puppy Love]

The intangible that I see as missing:

The Creighton players have been together for a very long time. Brake, Jensen, Maly and Mogeson all have at least three years together and some of the have four. I think that experience comes in to play and makes the game tighter than you might expect. I think UConn will win, but it could be uncomfortable. Hopefully, I’m wrong.

 

[Zarathustra]

Creighton will be our toughest opponent in the BE, their perimeter shooting is no joke and that’s our big weakness right now. I expect P, Sarah, Azzi, and others to have big offensive games if the Jays light it up from the arc.

Also, Sarah is 6’2. (She sure plays like 6’5 though…)

I also blinked at Sarah sudden growth spurt! However, I easily see
how "cferraro04" (post #1 above) could have been sharing a wonderful DREAM... imagine Sarah with her Dad's height! Nevertheless, I think Geno is rather happy with the Sarah he has! I AM!!! GO SARAH, GO PAIGE, GO AZZI, Go Huskies!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

JoePgh: I respectfully disagree with your assessment regarding the match-up with Kaitlyn and Molly. Molly plays 29.1 minutes per game, and Kaitlyn plays 24.3 minutes. More than likely Kennedy Townsend will sub in for Molly and KK will sub in for Kaitlyn. Kennedy averages 19.7 minutes and KK averages 21.7 minutes per game.

Collectively we get the following stats:

Kaitlyn and KK Arnold - 11.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 2.6 steals, and average a combined .8 from 3-point.
Molly and Kennedy scored 15.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.37 steals, and they have averaged a combined 2.15 from 3-point.

I still see this as: ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON*

*It might be possible to make an argument for: ADVANTAGE - EVEN given that the suffocating defense UConn is capable of playing and the fact that the UConn duo averages 2.1 more assists per game and 1.23 more steals per game.

Mogenson is such an interesting player. Over the last three years, her stats against UConn have been up and down. Most of the games have been double digit losses, though one was a 2-point last-second loss. But all but one have been remarkably closely competitive, scrappy games and Mogenson has been one of the keys to that scrappiness, even when she doesn’t score a lot.

Jim Flannery coaches an aggressive, ball-hawking defense and they have been very good at it even when they are significantly undersized. In a lot of our games, it seems like they win all the 50-50 balls. Mogenson brings a lot of hustle to the court, and sometimes leads the team in rebounds even though she’s only 5’7”. It’s not that she has great speed, or the rest of the team either, for that matter. But they never seem to stop moving to the ball, and Molly chief among them.

There have been only three prior games with Paige in them, and I think she is a very difficult matchup for Creighton. She seems to distort their game plan with her combination of scoring and passing more than most opponents. And yet Molly manages to make a contribution. There’s a lot to like about her game. As you point out, Jensen and Maly tend to be the main scorers. But stats never seem to tell the whole story with a team like this. Flanery’s players find a way to influence the game, and it doesn’t always show up in the stat sheet.

 

[Huskee11]

This should not be a close game.

Jensen and Maly are their primary scorers. Maly shot an incredible 8 for 9 from three against Marquette recently. So, while Jana will start, she will likely be on Brake who is not a big scorer. Our centers have been playing far off of their player in recent games and I suspect that they will dare Brake to shoot open threes at the outset. She has only taken seven threes all year but has made three. If she hits a couple we may see our small lineup early and often. On the other hand, who will be able to stop Jana inside other than Jana herself?

But Sarah will likely be on Maly and obviously she will need to cover her at the three point line. I imagine Paige will start on Jensen but it will be a group effort there. Hopefully Aubrey is part of that group effort and she is able to match up against everyone Creighton can run out there. I would like to see her get 15 minutes.

We have been pressing full court from the start recently and I fully expect that. Another reason for the smaller lineup is that having Jana or Ice in there hurts our ability to press when the other team's "big" is capable of bringing the ball up the court. But we will press, and since Creighton only appears to go seven deep, the press should wear on them.

Mogensen is a decent player but in the last two seasons against us, four games total, she has a total of 21 points and 5 assists. I am sure the game plan is to harass her from the national anthem on.

Jensen and Maly would both have to have career games against us for this one to be close. I don't see it happening.

 

[Inthepaint]

Thanks again, Sensei!

I disagree with @yhun89 -- if you say Sarah is 6'5" I'm clinging to that like it's holy scripture.

I agree with everyone that Creighton is a tough matchup, even though they're small. They are tenacious and no one scraps for loose balls like they do. And their 3pt shooting is formidable, with 4 players at or near 40% -- Maly, Mogenson, Jensen and Townsend. This is also a very experienced lineup, mainly seniors and a couple of juniors. They know each other really well and don't tend to make mistakes. This is not a group it is easy to rattle.

My guess is that we'll see a lot of Morgan Cheli in this game. They are a small team, so even our small-ball lineup with Sarah and Morgan in the frontcourt -- and maybe Aubrey too -- will still be bigger than they are. Morgan also has the right mentality to play against a team of scrappers. I also wonder if we'll see some earlier minutes for Allie in this game. She could match up well against Creighton.

In the end, I suspect that we have too many shooters for them to deal with, and Sarah in particular. I think Paige will pick their interior defense apart with passes to Sarah in the paint, and Sarah will return the favor. Creighton usually plays a collapsing defense -- zone or sagging man -- to control the low post against taller teams. But if we hit from 3, they won't be able to do this so easily. This will mean they have to defend Jana or Ice straight up, which is not a winning formula for them.

Creighton will be tough at home
It’s UCONN, so as usual, expect the Blue Jays to bring their “A” game
Let’s be mindful of the perimeter on defense, turn their misses into fast break points .
Jana & Ice make those bunnies and let Paige, Sarah, and Azzi work to create those open lanes for mid range shots.
We SHOULD come out on top, but everyone will have to work for this one

 

[Zarathustra]

Creighton will be tough at home
It’s UCONN, so as usual, expect the Blue Jays to bring their “A” game
Let’s be mindful of the perimeter on defense, turn their misses into fast break points .
Jana & Ice make those bunnies and let Paige, Sarah, and Azzi work to create those open lanes for mid range shots.
We SHOULD come out on top, but everyone will have to work for this one

I think somewhat differently... THE HUSKIES WILL COME OUT ON TOP!

 

[jabstep]

They will run their offense well and get some easy layups off back screens but we will wear them out and use our defensive pressure and transition offense to dominate them. We are starting to click on all cylinders with all our players as others have said even the whole bench has been effective as of late. We are getting ready to Rumble with the SEC cant wait for those games. Tessa Johnson and Joyce Edwards are gonna be a handful.

 

[tomcat]

I don't think this is an easy win for UConn, though I think the Huskies will win. Two reasons:
1. Creighton is a very well-coached team, with veteran players who have played together for as long time. It seems like we have been facing a team with Maly and Mogensen in the lineup forever.
2. Some days, UConn's three-point defense is suspect, to say the least. It has not burned the team very often because many opponents have had bad shooting days, even on open shots, and many opponents simply aren't that good. If Creighton starts lighting it up from the 3, this will be a tough slog.
Just a random thought here: What could make a difference would be a good fame from the ever-imporving Jana El-Alfy. Her height could be the x-factor in this game.

 

[Rowdy831]

The only thing that is in doubt in this game is if the starting 5 will need to play more than 25 minutes. If UConn comes out and does their job they will be blow another BE team out. UConn has 12 players that would start for Creighton or any other team in the Big East for that matter. UConn just has too much.

 

[Bone Dog]

The game that just finished shows how right @cferraro04 was about Molly Mogenson. She fouled out in the 4th with 14 pts and 7 rebounds. A classic Mogenson performance.