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Message: [QUOTE="cferraro04, post: 5168126, member: 267"] [B][COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]GENERAL COMMENTS:[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] Every time we play St. John's I expect us to be playing at Madison Square Garden. No such luck! What an opportunity it would be if the women got to play in that venue. But, as luck would have it we will be playing this one in Queens at Carnesecca Arena. St. John's is a very small team with small pesty, quick guards. Will this bother UConn? We will have to see. Another big question hanging over this game is whether or not we will see the return of Paige Bueckers in this one. Purely speculation on my part...I am going to speculate that there is a possibility so I will do two separate player analysis one with Paige and one without. St. John's goes about 7-8 players deep and will probably start: Kylie Levelle, a 6'3" - Junior - Forward; Phoenix Gedeon, a 6'0" - Senior - Forward; Lashae Dwyer, a 5'6" - Senior - Guard; Ber'Nyah Mayo, a 5'6" guard; Jailah Donald, a 5'7" - Junior - Guard. They will bring Ariana Vanderhoop, a 5'9" - Graduate - Guard, and Owen Skye, a 5'7" - Junior - Guard off the bench Because St. John's is height-challenged UConn should dominate the boards. The major thing UConn needs to do in this game is to take care of the basketball. St. John's is a defensive team...holding teams to only 53.8 points per game. They get after the basketball and cause an average of 18.9 turnovers per game with 9.3 steals per game. St. John's also averages 19 points per game of turnovers. Even though St. John's is 11-5 overall (1-4 in Conference Play), UConn should win this game quite easily with or without Paige. [B][COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]RPI / SOS: [/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)]St. John's RPI - 86 St. John's SOS - 129 UConn's RPI - 6 UConn's SOS - 13 St. John's opponents' RPI - 7, 30, 52, 71, 119, 126, 136, 159, 171, 179, 223, 236, 239, 240, 267, 358[/COLOR][/B] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][B]St. John's opponents' SOS - 8, 14, 42, 64, 74, 80, 111, 146, 176, 177, 179, 210, 220, 224, 235, 362 UConn's opponents' RPI - 5, 11 12, 31, 52, 62, 68, 80, 80, 89, 98, 126, 129, 132, 148, 266, 267[/B][/COLOR] [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)]UConn's opponents' SOS - 6, 8, 15, 17, 22, 25, 25, 32, 34, 42, 71, 146, 162, 229, 232, 322, 356[/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]PLAYER ANALYSIS: Scenario I (With Paige)[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS - Freshman - Center vs Kylie Levelle, 6'2" - Junior - Forward[/SIZE][/B] - Kylie is St. John's tallest player and she averages 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks. Jana should be able to assert herself in this game Jana averages 6.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Jana did get 4 blocks against Georgetown and it would be great to see her build off of that defensive performance. While statistically Jana and Kylie seem even...based on the tougher competition that Jana has faced. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Phoenix Gedeon, 6'0" - Senior - Forward[/SIZE][/B] - Phenix averages 6.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists. She will have her hands full trying to contain Sarah and more than likely will not be able to do so. Sarah averages 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Sarah also averages 1.8 three-pointers per game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Paige Bueckers. 6'0" - RS - Senior - Guard vs Lashae Dwyer, 5'6" - Senior - Guard [/SIZE][/B]- Lashae is St. John's most productive player. Lashae averages 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 3.3 steals, and hits one three-pointer per game. Paige is averaging 19.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.1 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Paige also hits 1.9 three-pointers per game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Ber'Nyah Mayo, 5'6" - Graduate - Guard[/SIZE][/B] - Ber'Nyah averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Azzi since Paige has been a DNP has stepped it up and I would expect her to continue to build upon that. Azzi is averaging 10.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and Azzi hits 1.8 three-pointers per game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Kaitlynn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jailah Donald, 5'7" - Junior - Guard[/SIZE][/B] - Jailah averages about 30 minutes per game. Her stat line is 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and .8 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. While statistically, these two players have similar stats I believe that Kaitlyn will have a greater impact on the game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5][COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)]Scenario II (Without Paige Bueckers)[/COLOR] Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS - Freshman - Center vs Kylie Levelle, 6'2" - Junior - Forward[/SIZE][/B] - Kylie is St. John's tallest player and she averages 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks. Jana should be able to assert herself in this game Jana averages 6.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Jana did get 4 blocks against Georgetown and it would be great to see her build off of that defensive performance. While statistically Jana and Kylie seem even...based on the tougher competition that Jana has faced. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Phoenix Gedeon, 6'0" - Senior - Forward[/SIZE][/B] - Phenix averages 6.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists. She will have her hands full trying to contain Sarah and more than likely will not be able to do so. Sarah averages 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Sarah also averages 1.8 three-pointers per game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Azzie Fudd, 5'11" Graduate - Guard vs Lashae Dwyer, 5'6" - Senior - Guard[/SIZE][/B] - Lashae is St. John's most productive player. Lashae averages 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 3.3 steals, and hits one three-pointer per game. Azzi is averaging 10.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 steals, and Azzi hits 1.8 three-pointers per game. Azzie could go off for 20-plus points and could bang down a bunch of 3s but in the other statistical areas, Lashae has the advantage. Based on the way Azzie is playing of late. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - EVEN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" Sophomore - Guard vs Ber'Nyah Mayo, 5'6" - Graduate - Guard[/SIZE][/B] - Ber'Nyah averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Azzi since Paige has been a DNP has stepped it up and I would expect her to continue to build upon that. Ashlynn averages 8.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 steals, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. Given that Ashlynn has faced tougher competition this year than Ber'Nyah. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=5]Kaitlynn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jailah Donald, 5'7" - Junior - Guard[/SIZE][/B] - Jailah averages about 30 minutes per game. Her stat line is 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and .8 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. While statistically, these two players have similar stats I believe that Kaitlyn will have a greater impact on the game. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]BENCH: [/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] If Paige is not playing then UConn will bring 18.7 points, and 10.2 rebounds off the bench. With Paige playing then UConn will bring 27.1 points, and 12.7 rebounds off the bench. St. John's will bring 15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds off the bench. [B][SIZE=5][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/COLOR][/SIZE] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]INTANGIBLES:[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] This game will be played at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York. While St. John's might be "New York's Team" I think the home-court advantage will not be enough for the Red Storm to pull off the upset. UConn is too big, too deep, too talented, and UConn's defense is sure to cause St. John's a lot of problems. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]COACHING:[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] It almost isn't fair to include this in the analysis because there are very few coaching staff in women's college basketball that could rival UConn's storied coaching staff. However, because coaching has a huge impact on how the game is played it must be included. [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]ADVANTAGE - UCONN[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]SCORE: (With Paige)[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]UConn - 88 [/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5][B]St John's - 45[/B][/SIZE][/COLOR] [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]MOV - 43[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(226, 80, 65)][SIZE=5]SCORE: (Without Paige)[/SIZE][/COLOR] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]UConn - 81 [/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] [COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5][B]St. John's - 49[/B][/SIZE][/COLOR] [B][COLOR=rgb(85, 57, 130)][SIZE=5]MOV - 32[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B] [/QUOTE]

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