Game Analysis - Game 16 - UConn vs St. John's | The Boneyard
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Game Analysis - Game 16 - UConn vs St. John's

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51
 
Last edited:
cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51
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Yeah, I don't know what happened....good thing I saved the rest of the analysis, so all I had to do was cut and paste.
 
Very thorough analysis as always. I still think the most important position against UCONN is the point guard. It's not just the full court press which is excellent but the in your skin half court defense with traps.
 
I'll also add that St. John's players are earning those stats with at least 5-7 more minutes a game. I suspect the per 40 stat comparisons would all favor UConn.
 
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I think the last sentence in the COACHING: section should have an asterisk with the note that UConn was in the AAC (winning that conference's regular season and tournament). 😄
 
Thanks again, sensei! I’m always interested in the speedy teams as they can be challenging. And SJU seems to be another quick team, as SH would have been were Jada Eads healthy.

I am surprised that none of SJU’s starters averages 1 stl/game.
 
Bone Dog said:
Thanks again, sensei! I’m always interested in the speedy teams as they can be challenging. And SJU seems to be another quick team, as SH would have been were Jada Eads healthy.

I am surprised that none of SJU’s starters averages 1 stl/game.
Expand ...
Yes, Bone Dog...their starters are all under 1 steal per game, and it is no surprise that they only average 6.5 steals per game. I tried to find a quantitative ranking for the Storm in Steals per game, but I couldn't find one. I am sure they are pretty far down the list, though.
 
cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51
Expand ...
Just one request (& sorry to add to your potential workload): when citing pregame stats could you also include the minutes/game in which they were achieved?
 
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cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51
Expand ...
I simply don't understand how you underrate KK in these match ups. Take a look at the game tapes, there are few guards in the game that compare to her ability to to control the game from either sides of the ball. Watch how she pushes her match up back to midcourt, delays the opposing offense. You are simply analyzing stats and it's just wrong.
 
cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn is rolling along 15 and 0. It is hard to believe that the regular season is already half over. We will be facing The Red Storm in Hartford on Wednesday. St John's is a guard-heavy team. Their biggest players are 6'2", with Kylie Lavelle being the only starter at 6'2". The Johnnies will start 6'2", 6'0", 5'11", 5'10", 5'10"...2 undersized forwards and 3 guards. They average 33.9 rebounds per game. They are a quick team, but they are prone to turnovers, averaging 16.4 per game against what I would term as not impressive opponents. The Johnnies' RPI is 99, and their SOS is 275. Their NET Ranking is 99. When you compare that to UConn's RPI of 1, their SOS of 7, and their NET Ranking of 1, it is clear that these two teams are worlds apart.

St. John's has not faced anything like the oppressive defense that UConn is sure to bring. The Red Storm averages 67.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 59.9 points per game. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, averaging only 5.3 three-pointers per game. To their credit, they have been able to hold their opponents to only 4.9 three-pointers per game. They also average 6.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game.

UConn may have some difficulty at the beginning of the game adjusting to St. John's speed, but I don't think it will last long before UConn adjusts and begins what is sure to be another lop-sided victory.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Kylie Lavelle, 6'2" Senior Forward - Kylie is undersized for a big and will have a difficult time containing Serah, who seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offensive sets. I would expect that Serah will expand upon her recent improvements that we have been observing over the past few games. Kylie averages 6.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .9 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Serah is averaging 7.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks. While both players are close in statistical comparisons with Serah having slightly better numbers it must be noted that Serah has faced much better competition and that she has had a very successful career at Wisconsin before coming to CT where she was honored for her defensive play in the Big 10 Conference. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Sa'Mya Wyatt, 5'11" - Sophomore Forward - Sa'mya is also undersized for the 4 position, and against Sarah Strong, that will probably not help her much in this match-up. Sa'mya averages 10.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blocks. Serah Strong is leading UConn in just about every category. She averages 18.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1. 6 blocks. She also averages 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Brooke Moore, 6'0" - Junior Guard - Brooke is The Johnnies' best offensive player, and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 14.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks. Brooke also averages .8 three-pointers per game. Azzi is not a bad offensive player herself (sarcasm meter on 10). She is averaging 17.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.3 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Azzi is also averaging 3.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Beautiful Waheed, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Good thing we don't give points for most creative name because Beautiful Waheed would win that category hands down. Statisically however, we have an interesting match-up here. Beautiful averages 7.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. She averages 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and is averaging 1.2 three-pointers per game. One could conclude, just judging based on game statistics, that these two players are almost interchangeable...with nearly identical statistics. However, given the fact that Ashlynn has done it while facing much stiffer competition, I believe the balance shifts in her direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Shaunlana Wagner, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Shauntana is a pass-first guard and is the engine that moves the Johnnies. Shaulana averages 7.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, .7 steals per game. The questions are how effective she be and what are the chances that she will maintain her season's averages when she has a pest like KK draped over her for the entire game? KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Given that KK is playing with a protective mask to protect her broken nose, I am going to give Shaulana the benefit of the doubt. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

FIRST 3 PLAYERS OFF THE BENCH:

St. John's
Janeya Grant, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 1 rebound, .6 assists, and 1.3 three-pointers per game
Daniela Abies, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 5.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals per game
Jallah Donald, 5'7" - Senior Guard - 4.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and .75 three-pointers per game
UCONN
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 6.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game
Allie Ziebell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

St. John's - 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.1 three-pointers per game
UConn - 11.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks, and .2 three-pointers per game
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Coach Tartamella is in his 14th season at the helm of the Johnnies. He is 239-173 (.581). He is the winningest coach in the Johnnies history, leading the Red Storm to 4 NCAA tournament bids. He has had 9 top 5 finishes in the Big East Conference and won the Big East tournament in 2016.

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at its home away from home in Hartford. Too much size, talent, and experience for the Johnnies.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 92
ST JOHN's - 41
MOV - 51
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I would personally give UConn the advantage in coaching.
 
Bedford fan said:
I simply don't understand how you underrate KK in these match ups. Take a look at the game tapes, there are few guards in the game that compare to her ability to to control the game from either sides of the ball. Watch how she pushes her match up back to midcourt, delays the opposing offense. You are simply analyzing stats and it's just wrong.
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Bedford, what's wrong is that even though cferraro04 has repeatedly explained the context, rationale, and scope of his simple analysis, you continue to feel that he is somehow shortchanging certain Huskies (KK in this case) because he is omitting qualities that you have come to embrace as truths.

Your perceptions are not wrong. They just are one-sided if you cannot comment on comparable traits/characteristics of the matched-up opponent.

Do everyone a favor and provide us with any additional COMPARATIVE analytics between the Husky player you feel is getting slighted and her respective opponent.

We all know how wonderful the UConn players are. We are hopeful to gain insight into the other team. Please help!
 
YKCornelius said:
Bedford, what's wrong is that even though cferraro04 has repeatedly explained the context, rationale, and scope of his simple analysis, you continue to feel that he is somehow shortchanging certain Huskies (KK in this case) because he is omitting qualities that you have come to embrace as truths.

Your perceptions are not wrong. They just are one-sided if you cannot comment on comparable traits/characteristics of the matched-up opponent.

Do everyone a favor and provide us with any additional COMPARATIVE analytics between the Husky player you feel is getting slighted and her respective opponent.

We all know how wonderful the UConn players are. We are hopeful to gain insight into the other team. Please help!
Expand ...
I'm not a zealot, but I do know what I can see. I've been watch point guards for a while, other than a very select few players, KK has a distinct advantage. This form of analysis is OK but you nerd many more parameters if you want to use it.
 
.-.
In any sort of analysis, there's going to be a weak spot. If it's all numbers, you miss the "sum is greater than the parts" thing. If you work in subjective factors, it turns into mush, nothing more that personal biases that can't truly be substantiated, so it doesn't even qualify as analysis. So the present format is the best you can get, and serves a a great jumping off point for conversation. We can all argue that KK's and Ash's contributions are far greater than a stat sheet, as it's obviously true. But to get to the point where you can start a discussion, I'm 100% behind the present format and execution. Most excellent job, and it's a lot of work that is acknowledged by most all.
 
Y'know, when I saw that Lavelle averages 3.1 rebounds a game, I figured she probably played 15-20 minutes a game. Nope, she plays 27 minutes, and as their forward, averages 3 rebounds a game, less than any other starter. Maybe they play a lot of zone and her primary job is to keep the opponents' bigs off the glass.
 
Skeets said:
You and I have the same score and MOV. Sorry, but that guarantees you lose. Next game check my prognostication and pick something different. It will give you better odds.
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I could say the same to you...My prognostications haven't been anything to write about either...:)
 
Bedford fan said:
I simply don't understand how you underrate KK in these match ups. Take a look at the game tapes, there are few guards in the game that compare to her ability to to control the game from either sides of the ball. Watch how she pushes her match up back to midcourt, delays the opposing offense. You are simply analyzing stats and it's just wrong.
Expand ...
How about after the game, you make your case...if you are right...I would be happy to admit my error. You should also note that Shaunlana is also a pretty good rebounding guard, ball distributor, and defender herself. These analyses are not strictly on stats alone...although they do play an important role in the eventual outcome of each game.
 
sno-cat said:
I would personally give UConn the advantage in coaching.
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Yeah! I would agree. However, I don't believe that there is a better coaching staff in WCBB today. I thought going forward I would live the ADVANTAGE out since it is a foregone conclusion, and do a little research and post about the opposing team's head coach instead
 
.-.
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