Game Analysis and comments

[cferraro04]

BACKGROUND

The Wolfpack is an interesting team they bring in 6 freshmen, they have 3 graduate students, 3 Juniors and 1 senior. They only return 5 players from last year’s roster. They lost 44.5 points and 19.9 rebounds per game from last years players. Their biggest loss was Diamond Johnson...However, they return a strong nucleus of players:

Saniya Rivers, 6’1” Junior guard averaged 28.1 minutes per game last season;

Madison Hayes, 6’0” Senior guard played 24.8 minutes per game and started in 25 of their 32 games;

Mimi Collins, 6’3” Graduate forward, played 21.7 minutes per game;

Aziaha James, 5’9” Junior guard played 18.7 minutes per game;

River Baldwin 6.5 Graduate Center, played 14.5 minutes per game…All in all the returning players do not bring a lot of playing time or impressive stats. Collectively they averaged 35 points, 19.9 Rebounds, and 2.4 three-pointers.

Where the Wolfpack gets interesting is in the new players they bring in this season:

Alyssa Lewis - 5’7” Freshman Guard -Averaged 14.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.0 steals per game;

Maddie Cox, 6’2” Freshmen Forward - Was ranked 71 coming out of high school, averaged a double-double (17.2 points, 11.9 rebounds, set the school record for assist, can hit the three);

Lizzy Williamson, 6’5” Graduate Center from Australia…played her previous years at Southern Utah where she was the 2022-23 Western Athletic Conference Defensive player of the year. She averaged 9.6 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. She can knock down the 15 foot jumper and she bring experience and basketball IQ;

Katie Peneueta, 6’2” Junior Forward…played her freshman and sophomore years at Sacramento State where she averaged 8.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 blocks per game. Katie can hit the three at a pretty high percentage which stretches the defenses…she is a versatile player with size;

Laci Steele - 5’11” Freshman Guard - Ranked 56 coming out of high school. Averaged 21.3 points per game as a senior and surpassed 2,000 career points. She was her high school’s all time record holder in both points and steals. She is a knock-down three point shooter and has the toughness to score in traffic. She can push tempo and is a lock-down defender;

Zoe Brooks - 5’10” Freshman Guard - She was Ranked the No. 4 guard and the No. 9 overall player in her class. ESPN scouts grade of 97 and a five star signee. 2023 McDonald’s All American. Averaged 22.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.5 steals and 4.1 assists per game. Zoe is a combo guard who can run the offense at the point and can break down the defense while scoring the basketball;

Mallory Collier - 6’3” Freshman Center. She was ranked 55 in her class. Mallory averaged 11.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. She is a strong interior player who can score around the basket.

Against Charlotte, North Carolina State started Aziaha James, Mimi Collins, Saniya Rivers, Madison Hayes and River Baldwin, however, Zoe Brooks played the most minutes at 29 even though she came off the bench. Laci Steele also got significant minutes at 22 as did Maddie Cox at 16.

The Wolfpack put up 84 points against Charlotte whose offense was quite anemic. The Wolfpack went 9 for 27 from 3 point land with Aziaha James going 5 for 8 and Mimi Collins going 3 for 9 while Janna Eissa chipped in one more. Aziaha James led the team with 26 points 7-12 FG and 7-8 from the free-throw line. The Wolfpack had pretty balanced scoring with 5 players in double figures: Aziaha James (26); Mimi Collins (11); Saniya Rivera (11); Madison Hayes (10) and Zoe Brooks (12).

TEAM MATCH-UPS (starters)

*River Baldwin - 6’5” Grad. (C) vs Aliyah Edwards 6’3” Sen. (F)

River has got two inches on Edwards however, Edwards speed and precision moves to and around the basket will get her open shots. Additionally, look for Aliyah to pull River away from the basket where she will take and make the foul line jumper. Last year River played 31 minutes per game…she averaged 5.7 pts. and 4.0 RBs per game. Against Charlotte she played 19 minutes where she got 5.0 rebounds and one block…she did not score. Aliyah is a double-double threat night in and night out. ADVANTAGE: UCONN

*Mimi Collins - 6’3” Gr. (F) vs Caroline Ducharme - 6’2 Jr. (F)

Mimi averaged 32 minutes per game last season, and she played 20 minutes in their opener against Charlotte. Last season she averaged 6.9 points, 4.0 RBs, and .3 three pointers per game. In this year’s game against Charlotte she had 11 points, 5.0 RBs, 2.0 Blks and was able to knock down 3 threes. Caroline Ducharme has had a rough go with injuries over the past two seasons and it appears that she is still under some concussion protocols as she can be seen holding an ice bag to her head while she is on the bench. However, Caroline is for the most part healthy and her ability to get to the rim, rebound, and defend will be a very tough assignment or Mimi. ADVANTAGE: UCONN

*Saniya Rivera - 6’1” Jr.. (G) vs Paige Bueckers - 6’0” R-Jr. (G)

Saniya is the closest thing to a stat-stuffer that the Wolfpack has. Last season she averaged: 8.6 points; 5.2 RBs; 2.9 assists; 1.8 steals…she also turns the ball over 2.3 times per game. In North Carolina State’s opener she played 19 minutes and was one of the wolfpack’s five players in double figures, she got 4 RBs, 4 assists and 1 steal. I believe Saniya will have a very difficult time putting up numbers against Paige Bueckers. Paige has long arms and will play her tight on defense. While Paige is rusty…I look for her to continue to make progress towards becoming more and more like her old self. I am not sure how many minutes Paige will get but whatever it is I am confident in saying: ADVANTAGE: UCONN

*Madison Hayes - 6’0” Jr. (G) vs Azzi Fudd - 5’11” Jr. (G)

Madison is one of three guards in the Wolfpack’s starting line-up. Last season Madison played 32 minutes a game and averaged 7.0 points, 3.8 RBs, 1.0 assists. In the Charlotte game she played 26 minutes and 10 points, had 8 RBs, 3.0 assists, got a steal and only had 2 turnovers. Unfortunately or Madison she will be unable to stop Azzi Fudd from scoring. Azzi will score in a number of different ways…she can score off the dribble, pull-up from 10 to 15 feet or continue to be an assassin from three point land. ADVANTAGE: UCONN

*Aziaha James - 5’9” Jr. Guard vs Nika Muhl - 5’11” Sr. (G)

Aziaha James may be emerging as the Wolfpack’s number one threat from three as well as their best offensive player. While she only averaged .6 threes per game last year she went off for 5 threes in North Carolina State’s opening game against Charlotte. Last season averaged 6.8 points, 2.9 RBs, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals per game. Aziaha is good at taking care of the ball as she only averaged 1.3 turnovers per game. Aziaha played 24 minutes against Charlotte but she was the Wolfpack’s high scorer with 26 points (5 threes)…she rounded out her performance with 4 RBs, 2 assists, 2 steals and only one turnover. While Nika probably will not match Aziaha’s offense…she will be a terror on defense and my hold Aziaha well below the numbers she put up in her last game. I believe that Aziaha’s offensive skills will be balanced out by Nika’s defense. EVEN

BENCH: Here is where it gets interesting…UConn’s bench is far deeper than North Carolina State’s. While the Wolfpack has a talented bench and a budding super star in Freshman Zoe Brooks. UConn has proven power coming off the bench in Aubrey Griffin. Additionally as talented as North Carolina’s freshmen are UConn’s freshmen could be better. Off setting Zoe is UConn’s freshman KK Arnold who is already showing why she is going to be a very special player. Ice Brady and Amari DeBerry are two capable bigs that UConn can bring off the bench to offset the height that North Carolina State brings from the bench (Maddie Cox 6’2” and Laci Steele 6’5”). Then you still have Qadence Samuels who has impressed so far this year as being capable of scoring and hitting threes, Ines Bettencourt a capable reserve point guard and Ashlynn Shade another solid freshman who has both defensive and offensive skills. BIG ADVANTAGE: UCONN

Coaching: No disrespect to Wes Moore, RD West and the rest of the staff at North Carolina State but, talk about a plethora of riches…how does it get better than Geno Auriemma, Chris Dailey, Jamelle Elliott, Morgan Valley, Tonya Cardoza and Ben Kantor? ADVANTAGE: UCONN

INTANGIBLES: This game will be played in Raleigh and will give the game to North Carolina State, however, UConn’s superior talent, deeper bench, and strong coaching staff coupled with the added energy and sense of purpose the Huskies have now that they are all pretty much healthy will give the: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE: UConn - 96
North Carolina State - 58
MOV - 38 points

 

[Bone Dog]

Nice analysis, @cferraro04. They have a weak front line and depend on a strong but young set of guards to step up.

A few details I might think about:

1. Hayes is a gritty player and a bit of a Swiss army knife type. She's an opportunistic scorer who rebounds well. A little like Aubrey, though not as athletic. She'll end up everywhere on the court.

2. Collins is a quick forward at 6'3", maybe quicker than Aaliyah, though not nearly as strong. She is capable of having a big game if she doesn't have to be the main scorer. She was able to do that occasionally at MD, where there were other options besides her. If NC St has other options, like James, Hayes and Rivers, Mimi could have a big game.

3. This could be a big season for Rivers, if James can continue to hit from the perimeter like she did against Charlotte. Saniyah has excellent skills, but needs someone else to take the pressure off her. Unfortunately, against Charlotte she took only 5 shots, made 2, and got the rest of her points at the free throw line. This isn't promising.

4. Baldwin seems to have been slowed by something -- injury, illness? -- from last season and I wonder if Wes can afford to give her 20 minutes against us and get so little production (0 pts, 5 rebounds, 2 TOs). Although, Cox, Collier, and Williamson didn't do much better against Charlotte. This seems like a substantial weakness for NC St.

5. Both teams have deep benches. It's only a question whether Wes will use his. Last season, he played 9 deep and we played 5. Tomorrow, I suspect well see Geno give 10 players double figure minutes. Against Charlotte, Wes played 10, but only got significant production from 7. I suspect today, he'll be hard pressed to go deeper than 7, or even 6.

Since we aren't overmatched in size on the post, we don't have to make it a track meet -- though Geno probably will do some of that, maybe a lot. The more we run, the less Wes can use his bigs, who are on the slow side, whereas Geno can run with Aaliyah and Ice on the floor. But I think Aaliyah Aubrey and Ice will be able to operate in the paint in the half court set offense. Expect to see a lot of minutes with Collins or Cox trying to guard Aaliyah.

If Paige and Azzi find the range, this game will not be close, maybe 102-70. If not, it will be up to Nika KK Aubrey Aaliyah Ice Qadence and Caroline to step up the stifling defense and the running game, and I'd expect a score like 94-66. I have confidence in either scenario.

 

[JoePgh]

Yesterday I watched the replay of last year's NC State game, which UConn won rather easily by 22 points (91-69).

I had forgotten that Dorka did not play in that game because of an injury sustained in the previous game against Texas. So last year's UConn team against NC State was not significantly bigger than UConn will be in tomorrow's game. The only other UConn subtraction relative to last year is Lou Lopez-Senechal, who uncharacteristically did not score in the first half (and didn't play very many minutes because of foul trouble), but had a 20-point second half. By contrast, NC State will lose quite a bit from last year's lineup: Diamond Johnson (13 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists), Jakia Brown-Turner (12 points on 5-11 shooting), Jada Boyd (10 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 offensive rebounds), and Camille Hobby.

In last year's game, Azzi had 32 points and Nika had 15 assists. Aaliyah had 20 points, 12 rebounds, and only 3 fouls. But I thought that the big impact was by Aubrey Griffin, who had 16 points on 6-9 shooting, 6 rebounds and 6 steals, creating mayhem in the Wolfpack's transition game. NC State had 19 turnovers to UConn's 14, and points off turnovers favored UConn by 27-9.

NC State's two starting bigs tomorrow, Mimi Collins and River Baldwin, came off the bench last year to play 19 and 21 minutes respectively. Baldwin got 9 rebounds (only 2 offensive) and showed some offensive skill although she only scored 6 points. Collins got 2 points and zero rebounds. Neither looked particularly athletic, and I thought that they seemed to rely mainly on Boyd as their inside presence. If those two are the anchors of NC State's front court tomorrow, I don't see them as a major threat to score in the paint. Last year, without Dorka, UConn outscored the Wolfpack 38-26 in the paint. Offensive rebounds were tied at 10 each, and rebounding overall was very close (26-25 in favor of UConn).

On paper, the game tomorrow should be another 20 to 25 point win for UConn as I see it.

 

[cferraro04]

Nice analysis, @cferraro04. They have a weak front line and depend on a strong but young set of guards to step up.

A few details I might think about:

1. Hayes is a gritty player and a bit of a Swiss army knife type. She's an opportunistic scorer who rebounds well. A little like Aubrey, though not as athletic. She'll end up everywhere on the court.

2. Collins is a quick forward at 6'3", maybe quicker than Aaliyah, though not nearly as strong. She is capable of having a big game if she doesn't have to be the main scorer. She was able to do that occasionally at MD, where there were other options besides her. If NC St has other options, like James, Hayes and Rivers, Mimi could have a big game.

3. This could be a big season for Rivers, if James can continue to hit from the perimeter like she did against Charlotte. Saniyah has excellent skills, but needs someone else to take the pressure off her. Unfortunately, against Charlotte she took only 5 shots, made 2, and got the rest of her points at the free throw line. This isn't promising.

4. Baldwin seems to have been slowed by something -- injury, illness? -- from last season and I wonder if Wes can afford to give her 20 minutes against us and get so little production (0 pts, 5 rebounds, 2 TOs). Although, Cox, Collier, and Williamson didn't do much better against Charlotte. This seems like a substantial weakness for NC St.

5. Both teams have deep benches. It's only a question whether Wes will use his. Last season, he played 9 deep and we played 5. Tomorrow, I suspect well see Geno give 10 players double figure minutes. Against Charlotte, Wes played 10, but only got significant production from 7. I suspect today, he'll be hard pressed to go deeper than 7, or even 6.

Since we aren't overmatched in size on the post, we don't have to make it a track meet -- though Geno probably will do some of that, maybe a lot. The more we run, the less Wes can use his bigs, who are on the slow side, whereas Geno can run with Aaliyah and Ice on the floor. But I think Aaliyah Aubrey and Ice will be able to operate in the paint in the half court set offense. Expect to see a lot of minutes with Collins or Cox trying to guard Aaliyah.

If Paige and Azzi find the range, this game will not be close, maybe 102-70. If not, it will be up to Nika KK Aubrey Aaliyah Ice Qadence and Caroline to step up the stifling defense and the running game, and I'd expect a score like 94-66. I have confidence in either scenario.

All great points Bone Dog...you seem to be familiar with North Carolina State's players...nice player insights.

 

[cferraro04]

Yesterday I watched the replay of last year's NC State game, which UConn won rather easily by 22 points (91-69).

I had forgotten that Dorka did not play in that game because of an injury sustained in the previous game against Texas. So last year's UConn team against NC State was not significantly bigger than UConn will be in tomorrow's game. The only other UConn subtraction relative to last year is Lou Lopez-Senechal, who uncharacteristically did not score in the first half (and didn't play very many minutes because of foul trouble), but had a 20-point second half. By contrast, NC State will lose quite a bit from last year's lineup: Diamond Johnson (13 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists), Jakia Brown-Turner (12 points on 5-11 shooting), Jada Boyd (10 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 offensive rebounds), and Camille Hobby.

In last year's game, Azzi had 32 points and Nika had 15 assists. Aaliyah had 20 points, 12 rebounds, and only 3 fouls. But I thought that the big impact was by Aubrey Griffin, who had 16 points on 6-9 shooting, 6 rebounds and 6 steals, creating mayhem in the Wolfpack's transition game. NC State had 19 turnovers to UConn's 14, and points off turnovers favored UConn by 27-9.

NC State's two starting bigs tomorrow, Mimi Collins and River Baldwin, came off the bench last year to play 19 and 21 minutes respectively. Baldwin got 9 rebounds (only 2 offensive) and showed some offensive skill although she only scored 6 points. Collins got 2 points and zero rebounds. Neither looked particularly athletic, and I thought that they seemed to rely mainly on Boyd as their inside presence. If those two are the anchors of NC State's front court tomorrow, I don't see them as a major threat to score in the paint. Last year, without Dorka, UConn outscored the Wolfpack 38-26 in the paint. Offensive rebounds were tied at 10 each, and rebounding overall was very close (26-25 in favor of UConn).

On paper, the game tomorrow should be another 20 to 25 point win for UConn as I see it.

I forgot that Azzi went off for 32 points that day...she was unconscious. The potential offensive assault that UConn could mount if all the stars are aligned is mind-boggling.