Game Analysis and Comments - Game 11 - UConn vs Butler

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

UConn is coming off a pretty good game where the passing was crisper, the pace was faster, they got out in transition and scored, and three-point shooting was pretty good. In short, what was there not to like? Of course, this kind of game begs the question...can UConn sustain that level of play from game to game? The short answer is yes, I think so. It should be noted, that Geno and his coaching staff did a hell of a job in the week they had off following the North Carolina game. And, I guess the question could be asked what is it with Paige Bueckers throwing block parties every game...two back-to-back four-block games make you wonder when Paige became such a blocking machine. And some of the blocks, I might add are beauties.

If UConn scores 75 points and they should then UConn will win. Butler is not a high-scoring team averaging 67 points per game however, they have been able to hold their opponents to 57 points per game. I am not sure Butler's defense will be able to keep UConn from scoring 75 or more points. On the other hand, UConn's defense has been tearing it up holding their opponents to 65 points per game. Butler shoots the three-ball a little better than UConn making 8.6 threes to UConn's 6.5. UConn gets about 36 rebounds per game while Butler pulls down about 34 rebounds per game. UConn's defense is committing 15.1 turnovers per game while forcing 16.5 turnovers and they score 19.6 points off turnovers. Butler averages 14.5 turnovers per game while forcing 15.5 turnovers and scoring 15.4 points off turnovers. The Huskies appear to be better thieves than the Bulldogs as UConn averages 2 more steals per game than Butler.

Once again borrowing Massey and SOS stats from the excellent work of MSGRET: "Butler vs UConn in the Massey ratings is as follows. Rankings is UConn #8 vs Butler's #129, SoS is UConn #1 - Butler #206, Offense UConn #10 - Butler #210, Defense UConn #6 - Butler #102". Butler has not played any ranked teams while UConn has faced 6 ranked teams, counting North Carolina State as a ranked team as they were ranked at the beginning of the season. It would be fair to say that Butler has not faced anyone like UConn this season. Massey has UConn winning this game going away.

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Sydney Jaynes 6'3" - Welcome to the "big leagues" Sydney! Edwards is an All-American forward who went #4 in the mock WNBA draft. Aaliyah is playing well now and Butler will have a very difficult time containing Edwards while simultaneously trying to contain UConn's other weapons. I expect that Aaliyah will have a very good game and that Geno will be resting Aaliyah early.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs Caroline Strande 5'11" - Caroline is Butler's best player she fills the stat sheet and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 16.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and shoots the three at .462. But, alas for Caroline the match-up with Paige Bueckers who is a stat stuffer on her own will be an extremely difficult test for her. Paige averages 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.4 blocks, and shoots the 3-ball at .500. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11' vs Rachel Kent 5'11" - Rachel Kent is an excellent basketball player who also has been stuffing the stat sheet. She averages 10.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and makes 2.2 threes per game... The rub on Rachel is that she does take a lot of threes as she shoots .333 from three. Nika on the other hand just about cancels out Rachel's productivity. Nika averages 7.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika also averages 1.1 three-pointers per game however, she shoots three-pointers at .432. On paper these two players would seem to be even...however, in a game situation and given Nika's experience against ranked teams and players... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5'10 vs Jordan Muelemans 6'0" - Here is where it starts to get interesting...our freshmen are growing up right before our eyes. Jordan is a solid player averaging 11.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. She is a fantastic 3-point shooter and you cannot leave her open. Jordan not only averages 3.1 threes per game but she also shoots them at a pace of .508. Ashlynn is proving herself to be a reliable scorer who can shoot the three. She averages 6.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, .8 assists per game. Ashlynn is averaging 1.0 threes per game and shoots them at a pace of .300. I think that Jordan will prevail in the match-up. ADVANTAGE - BUTLER

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Ari Wiggins 5'8" - Ari is a solid starter who averages 5.6 points, 2.6 rebounds 2.8 assists, and is a pretty good thief averaging 2.0 steals per game. KK is a real spark plug who seems to have another gear that she can kick into at any time. KK is averaging 7.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and is a pretty good thief in her own right averaging 1.9 per game. KK averages 1.1 threes per game and shoots them at .364 while Ari is not a three-point threat at all. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Butler brings 19.2 points and 13. 4 rebounds off the bench while UConn's bench brings 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds to the floor. Given the level of competition UConn has played versus what Butler has faced so far this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

UConn will be giving their fans a final look at them before they go home for the holidays. I think they put on a show for the fans. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

A lot of coaching experience on the bench for UConn and they have accumulated a lot of wins...this staff knows how to win basketball games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 96
Butler - 52

MOV - 44

 

[Blond D.]

Thanks cferraro04. I know a lot of us appreciate all the work that goes into your analysis.

 

[ABCDFE]

COMMENTS

UConn is coming off a pretty good game where the passing was crisper, the pace was faster, they got out in transition and scored, and three-point shooting was pretty good. In short, what was there not to like? Of course, this kind of game begs the question...can UConn sustain that level of play from game to game? The short answer is yes, I think so. It should be noted, that Geno and his coaching staff did a hell of a job in the week they had off following the North Carolina game. And, I guess the question could be asked what is it with Paige Bueckers throwing block parties every game...two back-to-back four-block games make you wonder when Paige became such a blocking machine. And some of the blocks, I might add are beauties.

If UConn scores 75 points and they should then UConn will win. Butler is not a high-scoring team averaging 67 points per game however, they have been able to hold their opponents to 57 points per game. I am not sure Butler's defense will be able to keep UConn from scoring 75 or more points. On the other hand, UConn's defense has been tearing it up holding their opponents to 65 points per game. Butler shoots the three-ball a little better than UConn making 8.6 threes to UConn's 6.5. UConn gets about 36 rebounds per game while Butler pulls down about 34 rebounds per game. UConn's defense is committing 15.1 turnovers per game while forcing 16.5 turnovers and they score 19.6 points off turnovers. Butler averages 14.5 turnovers per game while forcing 15.5 turnovers and scoring 15.4 points off turnovers. The Huskies appear to be better thieves than the Bulldogs as UConn averages 2 more steals per game than Butler.

Once again borrowing Massey and SOS stats from the excellent work of MSGRET: "Butler vs UConn in the Massey ratings is as follows. Rankings is UConn #8 vs Butler's #129, SoS is UConn #1 - Butler #206, Offense UConn #10 - Butler #210, Defense UConn #6 - Butler #102". Butler has not played any ranked teams while UConn has faced 6 ranked teams, counting North Carolina State as a ranked team as they were ranked at the beginning of the season. It would be fair to say that Butler has not faced anyone like UConn this season. Massey has UConn winning this game going away.

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Sydney Jaynes 6'3" - Welcome to the "big leagues" Sydney! Edwards is an All-American forward who went #4 in the mock WNBA draft. Aaliyah is playing well now and Butler will have a very difficult time containing Edwards while simultaneously trying to contain UConn's other weapons. I expect that Aaliyah will have a very good game and that Geno will be resting Aaliyah early.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs Caroline Strande 5'11" - Caroline is Butler's best player she fills the stat sheet and she is a great rebounding guard. She averages 16.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and shoots the three at .462. But, alas for Caroline the match-up with Paige Bueckers who is a stat stuffer on her own will be an extremely difficult test for her. Paige averages 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.4 blocks, and shoots the 3-ball at .500. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11' vs Rachel Kent 5'11" - Rachel Kent is an excellent basketball player who also has been stuffing the stat sheet. She averages 10.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals and makes 2.2 threes per game... The rub on Rachel is that she does take a lot of threes as she shoots .333 from three. Nika on the other hand just about cancels out Rachel's productivity. Nika averages 7.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika also averages 1.1 three-pointers per game however, she shoots three-pointers at .432. On paper these two players would seem to be even...however, in a game situation and given Nika's experience against ranked teams and players... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5'10 vs Jordan Muelemans 6'0" - Here is where it starts to get interesting...our freshmen are growing up right before our eyes. Jordan is a solid player averaging 11.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. She is a fantastic 3-point shooter and you cannot leave her open. Jordan not only averages 3.1 threes per game but she also shoots them at a pace of .508. Ashlynn is proving herself to be a reliable scorer who can shoot the three. She averages 6.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, .8 assists per game. Ashlynn is averaging 1.0 threes per game and shoots them at a pace of .300. I think that Jordan will prevail in the match-up. ADVANTAGE - BUTLER

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Ari Wiggins 5'8" - Ari is a solid starter who averages 5.6 points, 2.6 rebounds 2.8 assists, and is a pretty good thief averaging 2.0 steals per game. KK is a real spark plug who seems to have another gear that she can kick into at any time. KK is averaging 7.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and is a pretty good thief in her own right averaging 1.9 per game. KK averages 1.1 threes per game and shoots them at .364 while Ari is not a three-point threat at all. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Butler brings 19.2 points and 13. 4 rebounds off the bench while UConn's bench brings 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds to the floor. Given the level of competition UConn has played versus what Butler has faced so far this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

UConn will be giving their fans a final look at them before they go home for the holidays. I think they put on a show for the fans. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

A lot of coaching experience on the bench for UConn and they have accumulated a lot of wins...this staff knows how to win basketball games. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 96
Butler - 52

MOV - 44

Out of curiosity In your analysis will UConn ever lose the advantage in coaching

 

[cferraro04]

Out of curiosity In your analysis will UConn ever lose the advantage in coaching

I don't like answering a question with a question but your question deserves that kind of answer. Do you have a coaching staff that UConn has played to date that has more experience and more wins than Geno and his staff? When you produce such a staff and UConn plays that team then the analysis will have UConn losing the advantage to them. Until then...it will continue to be business as usual with UConn's coaching staff getting the advantage because they deserve it. Lastly, do you think that Butler's somewhat inexperienced staff, lacking in credits, and whose head coach has about one-third as many losses as wins should get the nod?

 

[Centerstream]

I don't like answering a question with a question but your question deserves that kind of answer. Do you have a coaching staff that UConn has played to date that has more experience and more wins than Geno and his staff? When you produce such a staff and UConn plays that team then the analysis will have UConn losing the advantage to them. Until then...it will continue to be business as usual with UConn's coaching staff getting the advantage because they deserve it. Lastly, do you think that Butler's somewhat inexperienced staff, lacking in credits, and whose head coach has about one-third as many losses as wins should get the nod?

I took @ABCDFE 's question to mean this season or in any game we will play.
Personally, I don't believe any team will out coach Geno and Staff.

 

[cferraro04]

I likewise took his question to mean in any game we play this season...my answer is still the same...until someone can produce a coaching staff that is more experienced and has more wins than the team of coaches we are blessed to have at UConn I don't see the analysis coming up with any other conclusion than ADVANTAGE - UCONN.

 

[HopJim]

I don't like answering a question with a question but your question deserves that kind of answer. Do you have a coaching staff that UConn has played to date that has more experience and more wins than Geno and his staff? When you produce such a staff and UConn plays that team then the analysis will have UConn losing the advantage to them. Until then...it will continue to be business as usual with UConn's coaching staff getting the advantage because they deserve it. Lastly, do you think that Butler's somewhat inexperienced staff, lacking in credits, and whose head coach has about one-third as many losses as wins should get the nod?

While you can never overrate Geno and CD, not sure I always put as much weight on the "experience" of the rest of the staff. Geno has the past few years taken a different approach than many of his peer coaches in staff building. When you look at the teams that brought in "transplant staffs" like Texas and LSU or new staffs like Shea put together at Vandy, they gained quick results with a mix of young/experienced, high energy, creative staff members that had a track record of success. This paralled Geno's staff from the championship years with younger coaches like Shea Raplh and Marissa Mosely mixing well with CD. While Geno's current staff has years of experience and a UConn background, their history as head coaches was average to poor. This is a year where UConn's overall coaching will be key so we will see.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I likewise took his question to mean in any game we play this season...my answer is still the same...until someone can produce a coaching staff that is more experienced and has more wins than the team of coaches we are blessed to have at UConn I don't see the analysis coming up with any other conclusion than ADVANTAGE - UCONN.

Based on your criteria I don't disagree. On the other hand, game planning, which is situational, highlights some other coaching staffs which are quite comparable. Belmont coaching comes to mind. Notre Dame. Princeton!

 

[sun]

Which head coach has received more technical fouls?

 

[Rowdy831]

When your teams are pretty closely matched does the Coaching Staff get the credit or the blame for the teams results? Has UConn won the strategic battles so far this year in the big games or have they been bettered by a few that resulted in losses for UConn?

Geno is great, but I don't think his staff is at a point where I would say they are great. When I watch I don't see a lot of collaboration when it comes to decisions that are made during games and I put that high on the list when you call a staff great.

 

[cferraro04]

Based on your criteria I don't disagree. On the other hand, game planning, which is situational, highlights some other coaching staffs which are quite comparable. Belmont coaching comes to mind. Notre Dame. Princeton!

Point taken...but then when will we play Belmont or even Princeton...? I know that Princeton has a chance of getting to the NCAA but what are the chances of UConn facing either one of them? Also...I would have to spend a little more time taking a look at Notre Dame's coaching staff...which in all probability deserves a closer look given their muffetless staff...lol

 

[Bone Dog]

Nice analysis, @cferraro04. Thanks again.

I'm particularly interested in the Muelemans matchup. She is a great outside shooter, especially against smaller guards, and Ashlynn is at least 2" shorter. In the closest thing to a ranked opponent, however, she shot only 33%, though that was mainly 3-9 from 3 for 11 pts.

I suspect Ashlynn can defend Muelemans effectively, and I have to remind myself that defense isn't simply about one-v-one matchups. Geno's team defense will force Butler's offense to move faster than they're comfortable with. This will depend on how effectively we switch, and we've been getting better at this.

I also wonder if this is a moment when Geno might want to give Qadence more minutes and have her defend Muelemans on the perimeter. If there was ever a moment for her to get more good minutes, this may be it. Ashlyn and Qadence can also force Muelemans to defend them on the perimeter, which is likely to take its toll.

But above all, we should make Butler run. Tire out their shooters' legs and then see how well they do.

edited to add: I notice that they're rebounding comes mainly from their guards, and they average 10 O-boards and 23 D-boards. I think this means they hustle for 50-50 balls but also that they crash the boards on both ends, which also means they can't get out on the break off rebounds. On the other hand, they average 7 steals/g which is clearly something to watch out for.

Also, unlike others perhaps, I think Austin Parkinson is an excellent coach and really turned the team around last year. I think they will have a better season than in past years.

 

[Blond D.]

When your teams are pretty closely matched does the Coaching Staff get the credit or the blame for the teams results? Has UConn won the strategic battles so far this year in the big games or have they been bettered by a few that resulted in losses for UConn?

Geno is great, but I don't think his staff is at a point where I would say they are great. When I watch I don't see a lot of collaboration when it comes to decisions that are made during games and I put that high on the list when you call a staff great.

Considering the injuries and weve got 4 freshmen, 2 of whom are starting, I think the UCONN coaching staff has done an outstanding job. I can see most of the players coming together, working together more and more every game. It takes some time for the freshmen to understand and run Geno's style of play. They looked pretty good against Louisville.

 

[YKCornelius]

Here are some additional thoughts from the cheap seats:

1- Austin Parkinson is a GREAT WBB head coach. Easily one of the best young coaches in the game. Comes from a great basketball family (think Danny Hurley), and has had an immediate impact with Butler, inheriting arguably the worst program in D-I two years ago (went 1-27 the year prior to his arrival with seven players entering the portal) and bringing them to immediate respectability last year with an 11-19 record, including a 2-3 record in games decided by two points or less. This was the same path he took at IUPUI (his first HC gig) where he turned a 3-26 team into a program that won 20+ games and played in the post-season eight times in the eleven non-COVID seasons he was HC. (I invite everyone to listen to his pre-game interview with Bob Joyce tonight - a personable guy who loves the challenge of building up a program.)

2. To replace the seven players entering the portal, last year Parkinson brought in four players (two grad students) and convinced Sydney Jaynes to return to Butler. This year, four lesser players left the program, and three better players came in, including two from Big Ten programs (5-8 JR speedster Ari Wiggins from Michigan and 6-4 SO post Lily Stoddard from Purdue) and a grad-xfer who started for him at IUPUI (5-11 Rachel Kent).

3. Parkinson faces the same delicious challenge that Geno faces: bringing a rebuilt team together. Like UConn, Butler is still working out the kinks that come from integrating new players into a cohesive unit.

4. Five Butler players on this year's team (Jaynes, Mortag, Strande, Meulemans, and Wingler) played significant minutes during last year's blowout at Gampel, including three who started (Jaynes, Mortag and Strande). Mortag hasn't played at all this year, but the other four have played a lot. All four played significant minutes (along with xfers Kent and Wiggins) at Iowa State in front of 9,900+ fans, so I don't think they will be over-awed in front of a large XL Center crowd.

5. Butler has inexperienced size up front. That said, they have four players 6'2 or taller who averaged a combined 56+ minutes in their last four games, which means Parkinson is playing two bigs alongside each other for a good chunk of time.

6. Make no mistake this is a guard-centric team. They like to pass the ball around a lot. However, they have not yet faced a team with the defensive pressure that UConn can bring.

Bottom line: I am looking forward to the growth of this team and this program. I think this Bulldog team can be competitive this year with most of the teams in the Big East, which has not been the case in recent years. If I lived in Indianapolis, I would purchase season tickets!

 

[Zarathustra]

When your teams are pretty closely matched does the Coaching Staff get the credit or the blame for the teams results? Has UConn won the strategic battles so far this year in the big games or have they been bettered by a few that resulted in losses for UConn?

Geno is great, but I don't think his staff is at a point where I would say they are great. When I watch I don't see a lot of collaboration when it comes to decisions that are made during games and I put that high on the list when you call a staff great.

Isn't the real issue injuries?? Granted many teams have faced injury (see Husky Nan's thread). One will
never know, but I just wanted to add my two-cent perspective.

 

[Zarathustra]

Here are some additional thoughts from the cheap seats:

1- Austin Parkinson is a GREAT WBB head coach. Easily one of the best young coaches in the game. Comes from a great basketball family (think Danny Hurley), and has had an immediate impact with Butler, inheriting arguably the worst program in D-I two years ago (went 1-27 the year prior to his arrival with seven players entering the portal) and bringing them to immediate respectability last year with an 11-19 record, including a 2-3 record in games decided by two points or less. This was the same path he took at IUPUI (his first HC gig) where he turned a 3-26 team into a program that won 20+ games and played in the post-season eight times in the eleven non-COVID seasons he was HC. (I invite everyone to listen to his pre-game interview with Bob Joyce tonight - a personable guy who loves the challenge of building up a program.)

2. To replace the seven players entering the portal, last year Parkinson brought in four players (two grad students) and convinced Sydney Jaynes to return to Butler. This year, four lesser players left the program, and three better players came in, including two from Big Ten programs (5-8 JR speedster Ari Wiggins from Michigan and 6-4 SO post Lily Stoddard from Purdue) and a grad-xfer who started for him at IUPUI (5-11 Rachel Kent).

3. Parkinson faces the same delicious challenge that Geno faces: bringing a rebuilt team together. Like UConn, Butler is still working out the kinks that come from integrating new players into a cohesive unit.

4. Five Butler players on this year's team (Jaynes, Mortag, Strande, Meulemans, and Wingler) played significant minutes during last year's blowout at Gampel, including three who started (Jaynes, Mortag and Strande). Mortag hasn't played at all this year, but the other four have played a lot. All four played significant minutes (along with xfers Kent and Wiggins) at Iowa State in front of 9,900+ fans, so I don't think they will be over-awed in front of a large XL Center crowd.

5. Butler has inexperienced size up front. That said, they have four players 6'2 or taller who averaged a combined 56+ minutes in their last four games, which means Parkinson is playing two bigs alongside each other for a good chunk of time.

6. Make no mistake this is a guard-centric team. They like to pass the ball around a lot. However, they have not yet faced a team with the defensive pressure that UConn can bring.

Bottom line: I am looking forward to the growth of this team and this program. I think this Bulldog team can be competitive this year with most of the teams in the Big East, which has not been the case in recent years. If I lived in Indianapolis, I would purchase season tickets!

I agree, Butler will get better year by year.. The whole BIG EAST is to be commended on overall strength improvement. I
wait to see how Xavier will look after a few years!

 

[YoDore]

Vandy played at Butler a couple weeks ago in what coach Ralph referred to as a "sludge of a game." It was that. Neither team could score, especially in the first half. Vandy wound up winning 51-39.

Coach Austin Parkinson is doing a terrific job at Butler. In just his second season, you can see that his kids know how to play the game. Do you sense there's a "but" coming? But, they don't have the horses to stay in the same zip code with UConn.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Significant aspects of coaching are already reflected in the position by position analysis -- what are you getting done in practice wrt player development, utilization, O/D schemes, etc... and, in truth, we don't really know the most of it. I guess you could include game management skills in a one-game analysis but that's probably only going to matter in the most extreme circumstances. Seems to me that there is an old guard of coaches (Geno, Dawn, Kim, Jeff and Tara) that have earned their props but also a good crop of younger coaches that are broadening the pool of competitive teams.

 

[Huskee11]

Huskies take floor but no sign of Nika.

???????

UPDATE- she is out there now. Whew