Game Analysis and Comments - #4: UConn vs Minnesota

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS:

Minnesota is a very young team: (7) Freshman; (3) Sophomores; (2) Juniors; (1) Senior: (1) Graduate. Their starter's heights are 5'10"; 5'11"; 6'0"; 6'1" and 6'5". Minnesota's go-to scorer is Mara Braun who also plays the most minutes. Sophia Hart is their biggest player at 6'5" however she only averages 19 minutes per game. Minnesota's rebounding is spread out between Mallory Heyer's 9.0, Sophia Hart's 4.7, and Niamya Holloway's 5.3. Minnesota averages 41.7 rebounds a game. Their best 3-point threat is Mara Braun. Mara takes roughly 10 threes per game and averages about 35 percent (11-28 in 3 games). As a team, Minnesota averages 16.0 turnovers per game but, I expect that the number will go up against UConn's smothering defense. They average a very respectable 52% from the floor and they shoot foul shots at about 70%. UConn will need to take care of the basketball as Minnesota gets about 16 steals per game. If UConn gets to 80 they should win the game as Minnesota averages close to 70 per game. Given UConn's vaunted defense, that number could be much lower.

MATCH-UPS:

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Sophia Hart 6'5" - Sophia will not play a lot of minutes more than likely Maggie Czinano and Ayianna Johnson will assist in trying to slow down Aaliyah Edwards. In this match-up Aaliyah will prove to be too much for Sophie and crew. I don't think Minnesota's substitution strategy will change Aaliyah's dominance in this position. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Caroline Ducharme 6'2" vs Mallory Heyer 6'1" - It is hard to tell what is going on with Caroline. The ice pack, while she is on the bench, could be a precautionary part of concussion protocols or it could be a necessary treatment for an ongoing situation. Mallory is almost a double-double player, averaging 8.3 and 9.0. Caroline has not been herself as she is usually a stat stuffer. This year has been a challenge for Caroline and it is fair to say that she has not as of yet rounded herself into her traditional role on the team. Her offensive and defensive production is off and if it continues against Mallory look for a quick substitution with Ice Brady. Due to the uncertainty of Caroline's play and the college game-time inexperience of Ice Brady this match-up is a bit sketchy. ADVANTAGE - MINNESOTA

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" vs Grace Grocholski 5'10" - Given the uncertainty of Azzi's availability in this game I will assume that Aubrey will get the start. Aubrey is playing quite well considering she only started in one game, she is doing her usual stat-stuffing. Aubrey is averaging 7+ in both points and rebounding. Aubrey's defense is stellar and her athleticism will produce steals and will probably prove too much for Grace. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs Mara Braun 6'0" - This match-up should be the marque match-up of the game. As we saw with the Maryland game Paige's competitiveness has put her recovery and limited minutes in the proverbial rearview mirror and she is off the charts good. C'mon the kid gets poked in the eye, goes to the bench and when she comes back into the game she plays like a demon-possessed. Mara Braun, likewise is Minnesota's stud and she is having a tremendous year. This match-up should be exciting but with Azzi being possibly side-lined I expect that Paige will put the team on her back and do whatever it takes for UConn to prevail. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs Amaya Battle 5'11" - This last match-up puts Minnesota's sophomore point guard against UConn's senior point guard. Amaya Battle has been having a great year averaging a respectable 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. However, Amaya will face incredible pressure from Nika and UConn's suffocating defense. Nika as well as UConn's team defense will disrupt Amaya and make it difficult for her to do what she wants to do. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UConn's bench is more productive than Minnesota's as UConn averages 35 points and 9.5 rebounds while Minnesota's bench averages 23.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. I expect UConn's bench will get a lot of minutes in this game as the scoring gap begins to widen. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

While this is a home game for Minnesota, UConn averages 87.7 points per game and Minnesota averages 70 points per game. Look for UConn to use its offensive advantage to push this game to 80 plus territory while playing suffocating defense. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

I will keep saying this over and over again, "we are truly blessed to have the coaching staff that we have". Geno, Chris, Jamelle Tonya, Morgan, and Ben as as good as it gets. When compared to Minnesota's coaching staff they simply have much more experience. Dawn Plitzuweit and Jason Jeschke have been together for about 7 years now...starting at South Dakota where they coached together for 5 years before moving on to West Virginia for a year and getting them into the NCAAs. Now Dawn is Minnesota's newly named coach and Jason is her Associate Coach. Dawn has amassed a 158-36 win-loss record but still while it is a good start she and Jason are far less experienced than Geno's and Chris's 11 national championships. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 105
Minnesota - 59
MOV - 46

 

[Blakeon18]

Somewhere on the board is a lengthy link about Paige's background...fascinating read.
It has several quotes from Amaya Battle about Paige as a player and as a person.
They were...and I suspect...will always be just great friends. Amaya helped Paige win a
couple of state championships and after Paige graduated Amaya continued her fine play.
Minnesota POY in her senior year. She apparently is having a wonderful soph season.
Wonder if they might guard each other on occasion? Their interactions should be
entertaining.

 

[Bigboote]

I said it in the three things thread, but I'll repeat. It'll good to see Plitzuwhite at a school that gets more press than the Summit. (I thought WVU wasn't a good fit for her, and it turned out she agreed with me.) I loved the way her South Dakota teams played, let's see what she's up to in her first few games at Minnesota. I'm reasonably confident she'll have more success than Lindsay Whalen did.

I'm curious to see where the crowd's allegiances lie -- this may be one case where the cheers are louder for the opponents than for the Gophers.

 

[Centerstream]

@cferraro04 do you think that it would be informative if you included what type of teams (ie Top 25, P5, etc) that Minnesota played in support of their current season stats?

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks @cferraro04. Well said.

I watched a bunch of Paige’s hs games and saw a lot of Amaya. She’s two years younger, but was the main pg next to Paige. You’re right to compare her to Nika. They each push a similar uptempo offense and aggressive defense. Amaya is another one of those high energy players. She may have slightly better offensive skills than Nika.

Mara Braun is an interesting player. Loads of talent. She played at Wayzata HS, the crosstown rival to Hopkins HS, and played against Paige several times. She would be matched up against Paige because they are similar in physical skills and dimensions. She played very tough D and had a very good offensive game too. I don’t think she ever got the better of Paige in any of those games, but they were often close-fought battles. If she’d been willing to leave the northwest, I’d think Geno might have recruited her. She used to remind me of Evina in her overall game and court presence.

I suspect the tone of this game will be much lighter and friendlier than the previous two. MN is not an in-your-face kind of team, though Amaya is an aggressive player. Plus, they’re mainly friends of Paige from high school. They will want to measure themselves against her, and she will not want to embarrass them.

I don’t think they have anyone to compare to Aaliyah Aubrey or Ice, and KK Ashlynn and Qadence may be completely uncontainable for them if they have to focus too much on Paige and Aaliyah. Finally, outside of Amaya and Mara, I don’t think they will have the physical conditioning to run with UConn.

 

[cferraro04]

@cferraro04 do you think that it would be informative if you included what type of teams (ie Top 25, P5, etc) that Minnesota played in support of their current season stats?

Great idea...I will endeavor to do that going forward.

 

[cferraro04]

Not exactly...maybe the MOV...but, the analysis is a completely different set of markers and circumstances. I don't think you will see a repeat of the North Carolina State game...I don't think that Minnesota has the athletes that could duplicate North Carolina State's defensive play. Also, keep in mind North Carolina State was loaded with Graduate 5th year players...this Minnesota team is very young.

 

[cferraro04]

I said it in the three things thread, but I'll repeat. It'll good to see Plitzuwhite at a school that gets more press than the Summit. (I thought WVU wasn't a good fit for her, and it turned out she agreed with me.) I loved the way her South Dakota teams played, let's see what she's up to in her first few games at Minnesota. I'm reasonably confident she'll have more success than Lindsay Whalen did.

I'm curious to see where the crowd's allegiances lie -- this may be one case where the cheers are louder for the opponents than for the Gophers.

I think that Dawn and Jason...have the potential to forge a long enduring coaching relationship like Geno and Chris...whether they will be nearly as successful as Geno and Chris have been may be an entirely different situation.

 

[Huskee11]

Maryland is ranked and their players are older and experienced, many of them grad students, and we held them to 48 points. The impact players on Minnesota are young, mostly sophomores.

Minnesota does have home court advantage but they will be hard pressed to score in the fifties. This assumes UConn comes out with the same defensive intensity that they had against Maryland. I would bet yes to that.

 

[cferraro04]

Maryland is ranked and their players are older and experienced, many of them grad students, and we held them to 48 points. The impact players on Minnesota are young, mostly sophomores.

Minnesota does have home court advantage but they will be hard pressed to score in the fifties. This assumes UConn comes out with the same defensive intensity that they had against Maryland. I would bet yes to that.

(7) Freshmen; (3) Sophomores; (1) Junior; (1) Senior; (1) Graduate

 

[EdSaid]

A Paige/Non-Paige story from Minneapolis.

In June we were in Northern Minnesota checking off two National Parks that we had missed, Voyageurs NP and Isle Royale NP. On the Thursday before Taylor Swift was invading Minneapolis, we went to a double header. Red sox/Twins at 12:00 in 91 degree heat followed by a Connecticut Sun/Minnesota Lynx nightcap.

We sat next to an older Local couple (I'll guess 75ish) who were the epitome of Minnesota nice. I sat next to the wife who had a large purse full of candy and gum and snacks, which she offered to me multiple times. She told me they were Lynx season ticket holders for six years and Univ of Minnesota Women's basketball season ticket holders for 20 years. Later she told my how Crystal Dangerfield was her favorite player and she was unhappy that she was traded. Now Napheesa was her favorite player. I told her both players were from UConn. She new that because her grand son had played Ice Hockey at UConn. She told me how they flew into Logan Airport several times and drove to Connecticut or some Boston area schools to watch their grandson.

Later in the game, I told them the UConn Women's basketball team was playing at Minnesota early in the season. I told her it was Paige Bueckers' homecoming game, and that she was from nearby Hopkins. She replied that she did not know who that was. She turned to her husband, who leaned forward. I explained Paige to him, and he shrugged his shoulders and said he didn't know who she was. They did tell me they would make sure to be at that game.

 

[vtcwbuff]

@cferraro04 do you think that it would be informative if you included what type of teams (ie Top 25, P5, etc) that Minnesota played in support of their current season stats?

Minnesota 3-0, has played nothing but cupcakes so far. Massey ranked teams 352, 359 and 169. Their SOS is lower than 300. I think that makes any Minnesota stats irrelevant.

I hate blowouts they are usually boring and do little to test the team. Tonight I am hoping for a 50 point, injury free blowout.

 

[Bone Dog]

I hate blowouts they are usually boring and do little to test the team. Tonight I am hoping for a 50 point, injury free blowout.

I’m not crazy about blowouts either. This one will be more challenging than Dayton. But not as informative as MD. Still, it’s not bad to give the girls a chance to work on the system under low pressure before having to do it at peak pressure.

I mean the MD game showed that the huskies can win on strength and will and raw determination. It’s a good idea to give them an opportunity to win because they can play silky smooth — lightning passes, players getting to their spots in every scheme, switching with efficiency, and hitting their shots too. By January, they want to be a crisp team and not just a tough team.