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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5242688, member: 12088"] Since people are worried about how the USC guards compare to UConn's guards, I thought a statistical comparison might help. The USC guards are Von Oelhoffen (5'11"), Smith (6'1"), Howell (6'0"), Heckel (5'9") and Samuels (5'6"). In order of contribution, this is how they stack up: [LIST] [*]The scoring comes from Smith (9.6 pts), Howell (7.4), Heckel (6.1), Von Oelhoffen (5.8), Samuels (2.4). The group averages ~30 pts/g. [*]The defense (in terms of defensive win shares) comes from Smith 2.1 DWS, Von Oelhoffen 1.9, Howell 1.5, Heckel 1.3, Samuels 1.1. [*]The total DWS is 7.9 out of 17.9 [/LIST] The UConn guards are Paige 6'0", Azzi, 5'11", Ash 5'10", Kaitlyn 5'9", KK 5'9" Their scoring is as follows: [LIST] [*]Paige 19.8 pts, Azzi 13.3 pts, Ash 8.2, Kaitlyn 6.9, KK 5.4. As a group, they average ~54 pts/g [*]Their defense comes from Paige 3.4 DWS, Ash 2.4, KK 2.4, Kaitlyn 2.2, Azzi 2.0. [*]The total DWS for the UConn guards is 13.4 out of 22.6 for the team. [/LIST] My conclusion is that USC has a slight size advantage -- mainly Kennedy Smith, though she's a bit smaller than Payton Verhulst and Skylar Vann on OU -- and UConn has a significant advantage in offensive production from the guard spots and defensive effort. That said, Heckel is speedy and quite clever as a defender, sort of like Hidalgo. I chose defensive win shares as the easiest way to measure total defensive effort, but points scored to measure offensive output. Offensive win shares might have made the difference between the two squads even clearer. but it seems to me that most folks here are more comfortable with a simpler stat, like points scored. UConn shares and distributes offensive and defensive responsibilities much more widely and communally, which leads to much higher total numbers on both ends. Of course, none of this means USC can't put out an enormous effort for this one game. But this hasn't been their pattern this season. [/QUOTE]

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