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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5239392, member: 12088"] Excellent analysis, Sensei! Thanks again. One little typo: Beers is 6’4”, and big even for that size. I have a similar expectation for the result: no blowout, though an MoV in the 10-15 pt range is conceivable. I wonder if they’ll score 70 or if UConn can hold them to something in the 60s. And an upset is also possible, especially if Sarah gets into foul trouble. What will hold the game close is if UConn’s perimeter shooters go cold. If Azzi Sarah Paige and Ash hit their 3s it will be a long day for OU. But their big guards could disrupt this aspect of our game. Reagan is a dominant post player, an excellent scorer with a reliable midrange shooting game on top of everything else. She is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Jana and Ice will not out play her, though they might be able to keep her from scoring more than 20. Their main contribution may be merely to protect Sarah from foul trouble. But Reagan is capable of scoring 30 and that will be a sign of a disaster. OU has an excellent guard corps and they play ‘big’ and are very quick. They also can hit their 3s. A lot may depend on what our ‘little’ guards can do to their game. Can KK and Ash wreak their usual havoc on defense? Can Kaitlyn score 10 or more? And an extra possibility: can Aubrey make a significant contribution? She would be difficult for OU’s guards to match up with and Sahara Williams might find her particularly difficult to cope with. And a second, perhaps less likely possibility: can Caroline give some solid minutes? She would also be a difficult matchup for them, if she’s up to it. If Aubrey can give 15 minutes of dynamic play, it could be a difference maker and take a lot of pressure off Sarah. Their main weakness is turnovers, which tends to cancel out the virtues of their passing game, often having more TOs than assists. In their worst losses, they’ve given up more than 20 TOs. I have a feeling this will be one of those games. The first loss to SC was like this, and I think SC is the closest comparison within the SEC to UConn’s defense. The rosy possibility is 1) that Paige Sarah and Azzi hit their 3s which opens up the paint for back cuts and 2) that we force a lot of TOs and get a bunch of steals. This strikes me as the most likely result, but by no means the only possibility. Will Paige dominate? Will Azzi and Sarah get hot from 3? Will Geno be able to play the small lineup for long stretches? If not, will Jana and Ice be able to give a solid 25+ mins between them? Will the ‘Havoc Twins’ work their awful magic on OU? The reason I’m optimistic is that Geno has more paths to victory in this game than Jenny Baranczyk does. [/QUOTE]

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