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Message: [QUOTE="stamfordhusky, post: 2124667, member: 649"] More than anything, this probably shows that using score differentials start to produce questionable results when teams are blowing out opponents by 30-60 points. A few days ago, 538 had this to say about the model's results: [I]The huge disparity between our model and the markets suggests that it’s worth having some skepticism toward our model results. In general, models are at their worst when it comes to extreme outliers, which UConn certainly has been. For one thing, it can be hard to tell their true strength, because so many of their games are fairly noncompetitive. For another, you would normally expect a team that has performed like UConn this year to be a little worse than it looks — because of [URL='https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-to-predict-mlb-records-from-early-results/']regression to the mean[/URL] — but in UConn’s case, we have a lot of corroborating evidence. Namely, that this season’s performance isn’t even that much of an outlier, for them.[/I] [/QUOTE]