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Five Thirty Eight's Prediction Model
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[QUOTE="Golden Husky, post: 4243178, member: 8090"] A bit to unpack here: First, unsophisticated bettors are called "squares." Sophisticated bettors are referred to as "shar[B]p[/B]s." A [I]very [/I]sophisticated bettor is called a "triple sharp." (Don't ask me why there's no such thing as a "double sharp"). :) Of course, the [I]Post [/I]journalist can use his own terminology but "squares" and "sharps" are the more widely used words. Except for the Super Bowl, squares have little impact on the line; they just don't bet enough. Yes, it's the amount of money wagered that influences the line, not the amount of bets, [USER=35]@Blakeon18[/USER] . Making and adjusting a line is a reasonably complicated task, which helps explain why today's bookmaker is far more likely to have a BA in sportsbook management and a working knowledge of mathematics than be some colorful character with a fedora and a diamond pinky ring. Adjusting the line involves concepts such as "the ladder principle," THP (theoretical hold percentage), PHP (practical hold percentage) and "extension" (the amount of money a book is willing to risk losing on a game). As mentioned earlier in the thread, the line's purpose is to predict the wagering, not the outcome of a game. Oddsmakers work for the house, designing a structure that [I]usually [/I]provides a profit for the house, irrespective of which team wins the game. I hope this helps. [/QUOTE]
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