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Message: [QUOTE="Phil, post: 2012710, member: 66"] Alydar noted that one should look at the vlaues of the Massey rankings. If you just look at the rankings, you might think the difference between 1 and 2 is like 6 versus 7 etc. A graph tells a different story: [MEDIA=googlesheets]1Nb1hM2kxXEIxJTneEvucWMkqs1E8odaOiaoNr73EcBw[/MEDIA] As you can see, there's a big difference between Connecticut and Baylor, a comparable difference between Baylor and South Carolina and a smaller but still significant difference between South Carolina and Florida state. After that, note the almost insignificant differences between Florida State Washington Maryland Mississippi State and Notre Dame. Each of those teams is almost interchangeable in terms of the overall strength. Then there's another drop off to the next group of three and then modest drop-offs until Arizona State the name big drop off to Ohio State. Absent a major upset, the first three are likely to stay in the same order but the next group of five might shuffle, even if they all win because of different margins of victory. The selection committee is likely to know this information even though they may not officially admit it. This could mean for example that geography or other considerations might move Notre Dame up as far as fourth and some fans will protest but that's not much of a move in terms of actual strength. I think Florida State's in the drivers seat, but there's a small margin so again they might literally win the rest of the games but if they win some close ones they might slip back a bit. [/QUOTE]

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