Film Review: Evaluating Ross's 2024 Defense.

[HW611]

There's been some discussion about how Ross, by the analytics, was the worst defender on the team last year. I wanted to take this chance to dive into those a little more and see if the film backed up the analytics on this and get more context. Hopefully this can bring even more optimism on Ross being a capable wing stopper this year as well.

During this exercise, I will be using all of his games where he played 15 minutes or more against non-cupcakes and break down each possession where he was involved in the final shot attempt/possession ending play. I know there may be some games where he proved the analytics right, if anyone has any specific games they are curious about, I'd be happy to break them down in another post. Just don't have the time to go through every single game unless there's an app or website that can help make these film watches easier by finding specific plays.

The games being used here will be Memphis, Xavier x2, Butler, and Georgetown. Not doing Marquette because I've done that previously. This would've been up sooner, but after getting through two games, my Google Chrome forced quit by accident and deleted 2 and a half games worth of progress. I have now acquainted myself with the save button. lol

All plays are available to watch through the linked timestamp that should take you directly to the play. Thank you to @Storrs South for having these replays readily available! They are a great resource.

Lets roll! First up, Memphis.

Memphis
Full Game:



17:00 (1st Half 13:57 Memphis 13 UConn 8)
Makes the switch onto the big Dainja and does a great job fronting him. Causes a turnover when PJ tries to pass it in. 1 TO caused

29:19 (1st Half 7:54 Memphis 27 UConn 19)
Draws the PJ Haggetry assignment (AAC POY). Does a great job of using his feet and not his hands to play defense to force Haggetry into a wild shot on the drive. 0-1

33:49 (1st Half 5:43 Memphis 26 UConn 29)
Picks up PJ full court. PJ attempts to drive to the rim but Ross cuts him off. Ref calls a foul that draws a reaction from almost everyone wearing UConn gear on the floor, bench, and in the arena. 1 foul committed, 1-2 FTs, 1 point given up

35:23 (1st Half 5:03 Memphis 27 UConn 32)
PJ tries to take Ross to the rim again. Ross cuts him off to force PJ back inside to Reed where he tries to dump it off to Dainja. Reed draws a kickball.

36:51 (1st Half 4:18 Memphis 30 UConn 32)
Ross tags Dainja to stop him from having an easy run to the rim on a transition break. Nobody stops ball on PJ who walks up into an easy jumper. Reed either has to hustle back with Dainja or step up to stop ball on PJ on this play. He can't fail at doing both. This is a play where Ross could also do a better job of communicating for Reed to stop ball (I'm not sure if he did or not, but if he didn't he has to communicate that with Reed since he had Dainja) Didn't count this FG against Ross

1:36:35 (2nd Half 1:35 Memphis 79 UConn 75)
PJ beats Ross pretty badly off the dribble here. Ends with Samson having to help and getting called for a foul. PJ goes to the line two knockdown 1 out of 2 and I'm assigning this to Ross. 1-2 FTs, 1 point given up

1:38:29 (2nd Half 50.1 Memphis 80 UConn 77)
PJ drives on Ross and gets him off balance. Does a great job of drawing the foul once he does. 1 foul committed, 2-2 FTs 2 points given up

Overall:
Opponent 0-1 FG, 2 fouls committed, responsible for 4 points on 4-6 from FTs, and 1 TO caused in 16 minutes.
Relatively good job of guarding a guy who had 22 points in this game.

 

[HW611]

Xavier
Full Game:


13:16 (1st Half 13:27 Xavier 10 UConn 12)
Dylan Swain takes Ross to the paint for a turnaround fadeaway that misses. 0-1
SN: in the offensive possession after this Diarra gives it to Ross and screens his man. Ross has a wide-open shot or drive in the lane to do something, and he immediately passes to Karaban smh.

14:25 (1st Half 12:43 Xavier 10 UConn 14)
Ross is in great help position guarding two guys at once. Picks off the pass from it for a steal. 1 steal

14:58 (1st Half 12:10 Xavier 10 UConn 16)
Not a bad end result because of the miss. But Ross and Stew get confused on the switch. Ross is a lot more decisive, while Stew gets stuck in no man's land after leaving the guy with the ball. Either Stew has to be locked in more, or they have to communicate better on this. It should've been an easy trade-off off but instead Xavier gets a wide-open three. Luckily, it was missed.

17:50 (1st Half 10:55 Xavier 10 UConn 18)
Ross does a good job not leaving his feet while making a good contest on Conwell, Xavier's leading perimeter scorer last year. Forces airball and shot clock violation. 0-2

21:59 (1st Half 8:30 Xavier 14 UConn 20)
Another situation where Ross does his job, but there are negative overall team results. Ross gets back on the break to tag the center to make sure he doesn't have an easy run to the rim. No idea what Reed is doing as he doesn't even attempt to stop ball and lets the guard get by for an easy attack to the rim. Again, Reed either has to hustle back and beat the big to the rim or attempt to guard. He can't fail at doing both, leaving Ross out to dry.

Ross pushes the center into Maddox for a foul. 1 foul committed, 2-2 FTs, 2 points given up

27:03 (1st Half 6:04 Xavier 20 UConn 20)
Play on offense gets ruined by Ross wanting anyone else to have the ball except for him. Causes a fast break where Ross gets a really good contest, but Foster has an even better finish. 1-3, 2 points given up

55:42 (2nd Half 13:24 Xavier 43 UConn 44)
Ross with a reckless closeout and Foster gets him to leave his feet on a pump fake. He dribbles pasts him for a pull up mid range that misses. 1-4

58:26 (2nd Half 11:46 Xavier 45 UConn 48)
Ross over helps here which leads to him closing out too hard. Maddox lets him fly pass and sidesteps into an open three. 2-5 3 points given up

Looking at this play more it probably should've been Karaban's responsibility to guard the guy in the dunker's spot and his man in the key. Ross was doing too much here, but the dunker spot is the most dangerous guy at the time and he was trying to help out with that. Not sure if it's his responsibility for doing too much or Karaban's for not picking that up and seeing that. Here's the screen still:
View attachment 112395

Would've been a lot easier for Karaban to play the dunker spot and his man then have Ross help with his man and still be closer to his own guy while being in the passing lane.

1:17:33 (2nd Half 2:25 Xavier 71 UConn 72)
Ross does a good job of getting around the screen to stay with a very hot Maddox. Gets a good contest in and causes a bad miss. 2-6

1:21:27 (2nd Half 1:50 Xavier 71 UConn 72)
Ross with excellent help side defense. Emphatic block on McKnight just for the refs to make another bad call. What a bailout. 1 foul committed, 2-2 FTs, 2 points given up

1:32:17(2nd Half :09 Xavier 76 UConn 78)
Gets called for a very cheap foul on Maddox before the inbound that the announcer even notes. Most likely a makeup call for a cheap foul the refs called on Xavier at the other end. Officials sucked this game. 1 foul committed, 2-2 FTs, 2 points given up

1:38:43 (OT 4:32 Xavier 78 UConn 81
This was a great sequence. Karaban hits a deep 3, and then Ross is faced with a similar situation from earlier in the game from 58:26. He doesn't bite too hard on the pump from Maddox this time and then recovers for the block. Bravo! 2-7, 1 block

1:48:10 (OT 2:06 Xavier 82 UConn 87)
Runs Maddox hard off the 3 point line. Makes a nice recovery to get a block (announcer said pass, but the scoresheet counted a block). 2-8, 1 block

Overall:
Opponent 2-8 from the field, 4 fouls committed, 6-7 from the FT line. 12 points given up this game. 2 blocks and 1 steal in 19 minutes.
In a game where Maddox had 22 points, Ross was responsible for 7 of them. 1-4 on 3 points and 4 FTs.

 

[HW611]

Georgetown
Full Game:


10:29 (1st Half 14:17 UConn 5 Georgetown 8)
Subs in the game with the assignment of Peavy. Puts ball pressure on him and immediately causes him to slip and causes a turnover. 1 TO forced

11:05 (1st Half 13:59 UConn 5 Georgetown 8)
Ross isn't involved in the end result. But after @auror explanation of how the analytics calculate score I thought this was relevant. Ross almost causes a turnover here contesting Peavy's shot so well. But later in the possession Karaban is late on contesting a 3 so Ross will get dinged for that? This is where my disagreement comes in on how that is calculated. I know not every calculation probably works that way. But still.

12:07 (1st Half 12:58 UConn 7 Georgetown 11)
Peavy takes Ross to the post and hits a nice turnaround fadeaway. 1-1 2 points allowed

13:36 (1st Half 11:27 UConn 10 Georgetown 13)
Peavy tries to take Ross to the rim. Ross does a great job of keeping up with him and absorbing the contact causing Peavy to trip and creates a turnover. 1 TO forced

18:34 (1st Half 9:30 UConn 15 Georgetown 13)
Peavy again tries to take Ross to the rim. Ross keeps up and contests well causing a miss. 1-2

20:37 (1st Half 8:58 UConn 17 Georgetown 13)
Ross isn't directly involved in the end result here but bringing this up for two reasons. One, when Peavy stepped off the floor they put Ross on the next best player, Malik Mack. Two, on the pick and roll Ross avoids the screen but for some reason Samson stays on Ross's man and doesn't drop back. They both end up jumping at the shooter and Samson's guy gets the ball deep with Karaban having to help. Samson wildly recovers and has to foul. Another example of bad team defense the analytics would ding Ross for when he wasn't the problem on this play.

22:28 (1st Half 8:15 UConn 20 Georgetown 15)
Ross loses Mack on the dribble hand off which leads to Mack making a really tough layup over Samson. 2-3 2 points allowed

37:39 (1st Half 2:08 UConn 35 Georgetown 26)
This possession kind of showcases the little ways Ross is constantly locked in on defense. We see him very active and alert in his help position to start off. He fights over a slight screen to stay with Peavy and then contests for the miss. The kid always makes sure he sees ball and man (which is something a lot of pros are too lazy to do). 2-4

47:14 (1st Half 17:21 UConn 43 Georgetown 32)
Peavy attempts to drive again and pulls up for a mid-range that misses. 2-5

49:48 (2nd Half 16:35 UConn 46 Georgetown 32)
Peavy tries to drive on Ross again. I thought Ross did a good job personally and the ref bailed Peavy out. But you all can judge for yourselves. 1 foul committed, 1-2 Fts

59:49 (2nd Half 12:24 Uconn 53 Georgetown 35)
Ross again stopping another Peavy drive. This time with a block. Unfortunately nobody gets a rebound and it eventually leads to a foul on Sober. 2-6, 1 block

Overall: Opponent was 2-6 shooting on 4 points allowed. Committed 1 foul for 1 point on 1-2 FTs. 1 block and 2 TOs forced in 17 minutes.
Out of the 14 points Peavy scored Ross was responsible for 3 of those points. 1-5 shooting and 1-2 from the FT line. Peavy was 4-7 with 6 more FT attempts against the rest of the team.

 

[HW611]

Butler
Full Game:


16:03 (1st Half 12:07 Butler 12 UConn 18)
Reed gets beat bad but his man loses the ball. Only reason Ross is even in position to get this steal is because of his natural help side instinct to be right there even coming from the top of the key. 1 steal

16:39 (1st Half 11:30 Butler 12 UConn 18)
Speaking of which, he overhelps here and leaves Haywood wide open for a 3. 1-1 3 points allowed

1:00:06 (1st Half 12:42 Butler 44 UConn 54)
Doesn't make the same mistake twice. Helps and recovers a lot better here to cause a miss. 1-2

1:01:09 (1st Half 12:08 Butler 44 UConn 54)
Fastbreak where his man catches him off balance for the blow by that leads to a Samson foul. 2-2 FTs 2 points allowed

1:10:34 (2nd Half 7:53 Butler 54 UConn 58)
Butler isn't trying much against Ross this game. Especially not man to man. But just another example of him making the right play by switching guys with Stewart very intently, and then for some reason Stewart is confused and leaves his guy completely open or a 3. Luckily Telfort missed. Stewart just doesn't seem to grasp the rules of this defense when it comes to help and switching.

1:17:35 (2nd Half 4:46 Butler 60 UConn 64)
Finley banks in this fluke 3 that Ross is there to contest on. What can you do? 2-3 3 points allowed

Overall: Wasn't as much action in this game as the others. 2-3 overall with 6 points. 2 points from the FT line I deemed him responsible for even though the foul was on Samson. This in 17 minutes.

 

[HW611]

Xavier pt. 2
Full Game:


12:19 (1st Half 15:00 UConn 8 Xavier 7)
Ross gets beat down the court by Conwell for a layup in transition. 1-1 2 points allowed

27:14 (1st Half 7:32 UConn 18 Xavier 26)
Another one of those plays where Ross isn't exactly involved in the finish. But man wtf is Samson doing here. He's running with Freemantle, attempts to stop ball when Ross is already there, then runs to Solo's man, leaving Freemantle wide open for a dunk. Did everything but protect the rim and guard his own man.

42:02 (1st Half 1:27 UConn 36 Xavier 32)
Another one of those plays Samson may have overhelped on a play Ross had perfectly covered which allowed his man Freemantle to get an open 3.

57:42 (2nd Half 14:50 UConn 49 Xavier 51)
Didn't keep up with Maddox and ended up fouling him. 1 foul committed

1:00:35 (2nd Half 14:21 UConn 49 Xavier 53)
Ross tries to jump the pass to cause a jump ball. Ref calls it a foul that the announcers disagree with. Ross just having terrible luck with the whistle. 1 foul committed

1:03:36 (2nd Half 13:25 UConn 49 Xavier 35)
Not directly involved in the end result. But thought the way he avoided screens to stay on Conwell's hip to force him to give it up was impressive.

1:13:47 (2nd Half 9:51 UConn 54 Xavier 61)
Reed gets beaten badly, Ross helps on the contest but gets called for a foul when he brings his arms down during the contact. Announcers make the point Ross could've been more vocal about Reed switching onto McKnight. Even though Ross did push Reed towards McKnight, which probably should signal a switch. 1 foul committed, 0-2 FTs

1:18:08 (2nd Half 8:40 UConn 57 Xavier 61)
This is an overall great defensive possession for Ross. He's in great help on the roll to Freemantle, which forces the pass to a further McKnight. Who he then switches back onto to force a missed layup. A+ 1-2

1:28:33 (2nd Half 2:57 UConn 65 Xavier 71)
Bad pass by Xavier and Ross is in position to take advantage because of the pressure he's putting on Conwell. Takes it the other way for the jam! 1 steal

1:32:11 (2nd Half 1:49 UConn 69 Xavier 74)
Great help defense on an open Freemantle rolling to the rim to cause a miss. 1-3

1:42:03 (2nd Half :05.7 UConn 72 Xavier 74)
Silly foul before the inbound in a crucial moment at the end of the game. 1 foul committed 2-2 FTs

Overall: Opponent was 1-3 from the field with 2 points. Ross committed 4 fouls while giving up 2 points at the FT line at a crucial time. Also had a steal in 25 minutes.

 

[RuffRuff]

Thar she blows. I thought I was a committed fan, but you make me look pedestrian.

 

[HW611]

Overall observations

First off, I thank anyone who actually goes through these posts and entertains my addiction to UConn basketball because it is a lot.

I can see why Hurley loves both Ross and Samson. When they're out there, they play hard and they are locked in on the defensive end. Even when Samson made his mistakes, he made it at 100mph. In comparison to Reed and Stewart, who when they made mistakes on defense they seemed more confused, frozen, or in no man's land. Some of the stuff just looked lazy.

I don't think there's anyone on the team besides Karaban who knows the defense and its fundamentals better than Ross. He was consistently in the right places, whether it was in help, avoiding screens, being tight on his man and denying him the ball, whatever was needed. I can't see how you could watch this film and not think he's closer to being the best defender on the team rather than the worst.

His biggest area for improvement this year will probably be communicating more on that end and being a leader. He fully understands where he is supposed to be and what he is supposed to be doing. The next step is making sure everyone else does too. But that goes back to him needing to be more aggressive in general.

 

[Drame]

Amen Brother. In Ross I believe!

 

[HW611]

Thar she blows. I thought I was a committed fan, but you make me look pedestrian.

This part is fun and easy. HuskyAdrien scouts Mountain Valley Tech if need be to consistently give us opponent previews.

 

[auror]

Georgetown
Full Game:


10:29 (1st Half 14:17 UConn 5 Georgetown 8)
Subs in the game with the assignment of Peavy. Puts ball pressure on him and immediately causes him to slip and causes a turnover. 1 TO forced

11:05 (1st Half 13:59 UConn 5 Georgetown 8)
Ross isn't involved in the end result. But after @auror explanation of how the analytics calculate score I thought this was relevant. Ross almost causes a turnover here contesting Peavy's shot so well. But later in the possession Karaban is late on contesting a 3 so Ross will get dinged for that? This is where my disagreement comes in on how that is calculated. I know not every calculation probably works that way. But still.

12:07 (1st Half 12:58 UConn 7 Georgetown 11)
Peavy takes Ross to the post and hits a nice turnaround fadeaway. 1-1 2 points allowed

13:36 (1st Half 11:27 UConn 10 Georgetown 13)
Peavy tries to take Ross to the rim. Ross does a great job of keeping up with him and absorbing the contact causing Peavy to trip and creates a turnover. 1 TO forced

18:34 (1st Half 9:30 UConn 15 Georgetown 13)
Peavy again tries to take Ross to the rim. Ross keeps up and contests well causing a miss. 1-2

20:37 (1st Half 8:58 UConn 17 Georgetown 13)
Ross isn't directly involved in the end result here but bringing this up for two reasons. One, when Peavy stepped off the floor they put Ross on the next best player, Malik Mack. Two, on the pick and roll Ross avoids the screen but for some reason Samson stays on Ross's man and doesn't drop back. They both end up jumping at the shooter and Samson's guy gets the ball deep with Karaban having to help. Samson wildly recovers and has to foul. Another example of bad team defense the analytics would ding Ross for when he wasn't the problem on this play.

22:28 (1st Half 8:15 UConn 20 Georgetown 15)
Ross loses Mack on the dribble hand off which leads to Mack making a really tough layup over Samson. 2-3 2 points allowed

37:39 (1st Half 2:08 UConn 35 Georgetown 26)
This possession kind of showcases the little ways Ross is constantly locked in on defense. We see him very active and alert in his help position to start off. He fights over a slight screen to stay with Peavy and then contests for the miss. The kid always makes sure he sees ball and man (which is something a lot of pros are too lazy to do). 2-4

47:14 (1st Half 17:21 UConn 43 Georgetown 32)
Peavy attempts to drive again and pulls up for a mid-range that misses. 2-5

49:48 (2nd Half 16:35 UConn 46 Georgetown 32)
Peavy tries to drive on Ross again. I thought Ross did a good job personally and the ref bailed Peavy out. But you all can judge for yourselves. 1 foul committed, 1-2 Fts

59:49 (2nd Half 12:24 Uconn 53 Georgetown 35)
Ross again stopping another Peavy drive. This time with a block. Unfortunately nobody gets a rebound and it eventually leads to a foul on Sober. 2-6, 1 block

Overall: Opponent was 2-6 shooting on 4 points allowed. Committed 1 foul for 1 point on 1-2 FTs. 1 block and 2 TOs forced in 17 minutes.
Out of the 14 points Peavy scored Ross was responsible for 3 of those points. 1-5 shooting and 1-2 from the FT line. Peavy was 4-7 with 6 more FT attempts against the rest of the team.

I want to be clear. I don't think he's a bad defender. Hurley thinks he's a good defender, and he is the person who would know best. Specifically the plus/minus stats say that last year the team was worse defensively with him on the court by a substantial margin (not all defensive stats are calculated based on this). There can be many reasons for this, not the least of which is that defensive metrics aren't that accurate because of how important the collective is to defense as opposed to the individual. As noted in my post, a lot of it was also caused by bad shooting luck against the team with him on the court. The team in general was plagued by this, and this is generally not a sticky stat, which is why the good sites employ luck-adjustments.

Defensive stats can be unreliable and his eye test and Hurley test passes, but at the same time the magnitude of how much worse the team was on defense with him on the court is something that is hard to handwave away.

Potential reasons for this discrepancy: him being a good defender, but not a great one, and as a sophomore assigned to players above his level because he was the best of bad options. And then he played aggressively, leading to points and fouls given up (fouls are the slow death of a defense). Being out of position because he's trying too hard to cover for other people's mistakes, which actually hurts the integrity of the defense over the long run. Bad offense (in part caused by him) leading to more transition and semi-transition baskets against. Etc.

On that topic, a random stat quirk I see looking into his D profile further was that the team was horrible in transition defense (not in frequency, but in effectiveness) with him on the court. I looked through other players to see if it was horrible with any of them on/off, but it was uniquely horrible with Ross in the game. Could be just a random unlucky thing that affected his stats, or maybe there's some merit in the film, you tell me. Something to keep an eye on as you go. Stats accuse, film convicts as they say.

 

[HW611]

I want to be clear. I don't think he's a bad defender. Hurley thinks he's a good defender, and he is the person who would know best. Specifically the plus/minus stats say that last year the team was worse defensively with him on the court by a substantial margin (not all defensive stats are calculated based on this). There can be many reasons for this, not the least of which is that defensive metrics aren't that accurate because of how important the collective is to defense as opposed to the individual. As noted in my post, a lot of it was also caused by bad shooting luck against the team with him on the court. The team in general was plagued by this, and this is generally not a sticky stat, which is why the good sites employ luck-adjustments.

Defensive stats can be unreliable and his eye test and Hurley test passes, but at the same time the magnitude of how much worse the team was on defense with him on the court is something that is hard to handwave away.

Potential reasons for this discrepancy: him being a good defender, but not a great one, and as a sophomore assigned to players above his level because he was the best of bad options. And then he played aggressively, leading to points and fouls given up (fouls are the slow death of a defense). Being out of position because he's trying too hard to cover for other people's mistakes, which actually hurts the integrity of the defense over the long run. Bad offense (in part caused by him) leading to more transition and semi-transition baskets against. Etc.

On that topic, a random stat quirk I see looking into his D profile further was that the team was horrible in transition defense (not in frequency, but in effectiveness) with him on the court. I looked through other players to see if it was horrible with any of them on/off, but it was uniquely horrible with Ross in the game. Could be just a random unlucky thing that affected his stats, or maybe there's some merit in the film, you tell me. Something to keep an eye on as you go. Stats accuse, film convicts as they say.

As far as his individual defense, he did a great job on his assignments against the #1 options in these games.

I know it’s a lot to go through, but at the end of each game there’s a summary of his performance. Peavy, Haggerty, and Maddox all struggled from the field when matched up against him. Specific sample size of course, but still. These were the games he was on the court long enough for this to matter.

Fouls are also included here. There was a lot of unlucky fouls and he did a pretty good job consistently playing defense with his feet and not his hands.

As far as the transition defense, there were 3 cases of Tarris or Samson not doing their job in transition with him that he tries to compensate for.





- YouTube

Is it Ross’s fault that the big aren’t doing their jobs here? Should he let the bigs run free to the rim and instead stop ball? These are the things that would negatively affect these stats. I don’t know what more Ross could do in these situations outside of maybe communicate better if he isn’t doing that already.

From what I saw whether it was tagging a big running free or cutting off a ballhandler early so they aren’t freely dribbling the ball up, Ross consistently did his part.

I only saw one instance that he was out of position overcompensating in this 5 game sample. But again, is it him being a bad defender when he’s overcompensating for other bad defenders?

Appreciate you attempting to give some of this stuff a look. Know it’s a lot to go through.

 

[navery12]

As far as his individual defense, he did a great job on his assignments against the #1 options in these games.

I know it’s a lot to go through, but at the end of each game there’s a summary of his performance. Peavy, Haggerty, and Maddox all struggled from the field when matched up against him. Specific sample size of course, but still. These were the games he was on the court long enough for this to matter.

Fouls are also included here. There was a lot of unlucky fouls and he did a pretty good job consistently playing defense with his feet and not his hands.

As far as the transition defense, there were 3 cases of Tarris or Samson not doing their job in transition with him that he tries to compensate for.





- YouTube

Is it Ross’s fault that the big aren’t doing their jobs here? Should he let the bigs run free to the rim and instead stop ball? These are the things that would negatively affect these stats. I don’t know what more Ross could do in these situations outside of maybe communicate better if he isn’t doing that already.

From what I saw whether it was tagging a big running free or cutting off a ballhandler early so they aren’t freely dribbling the ball up, Ross consistently did his part.

I only saw one instance that he was out of position overcompensating in this 5 game sample. But again, is it him being a bad defender when he’s overcompensating for other bad defenders?

Appreciate you attempting to give some of this stuff a look. Know it’s a lot to go through.

Appreciate you going through all this, very insightful. I'll definitely agree the video looks better than the stats say. Feels like he should be closer to average than bad like he grades out.

The hard piece is assigning blame when we don't know the assignments. People will always see what they want to see and blame whoever they like least. Hopefully with better players around him this year the metrics improve too when he does get on the court

 

[businesslawyer]

Wow, that’s a lot of work. I will say that Jim Boeheim always laughed at individual computerized defensive grading. He said something like “how the hell does a computer program know if an individual defender is doing what I’d want him to be doing in any particular circumstance.”

 

[auror]

As far as his individual defense, he did a great job on his assignments against the #1 options in these games.

I know it’s a lot to go through, but at the end of each game there’s a summary of his performance. Peavy, Haggerty, and Maddox all struggled from the field when matched up against him. Specific sample size of course, but still. These were the games he was on the court long enough for this to matter.

Fouls are also included here. There was a lot of unlucky fouls and he did a pretty good job consistently playing defense with his feet and not his hands.

Two thoughts to consider. The first is that this is a biased selection of games (despite understandable reason to pick these). He got more minutes in these games in part because he was effective and/or his skillset was needed. It's sampling bias.

Secondly, you're just underselling some of his issues. He didn't do a good job consistently playing defense with his feet. The fouls are a problem. In the 2nd Xavier game for instance, he just fouled 4 times in 25 minutes. He wasn't unlucky with fouls or any other sort of minimization. He fouled 4 guys. In the first Xavier game, he fouled 4 times in 19 minutes. One of them was the horrible make-up call (though he did grab the guy, but they usually let that go), but the rest were clear fouls. I thought most of the times you wrote bailout or judge for yourself were good calls. He's aggressive and swings down, jumps into attackers, and reaches in, and defenders lose protections when they do those things.

Overall, he averaged a foul every 7 minutes in the games you picked, which would foul him out in games if he got starting caliber minutes. And again these were the games he earned the most playing time through good performances. Other games were even worse. He had 4 fouls in 12 minutes in the Dayton game. There's a lot of "11 minutes, 2 fouls" in his game log. Fouling is bad, and there are trickle down effects that lead to more points for the opponent even if it didn't directly translate to points in the moment. Especially since he had such a marginal steal rate relative.

Also, sometimes you noted an error, but then blamed someone else. Like on the Karaban dunker spot thing. Could he and Karaban have communicated and done a better job having Karaban guard the guy in the dunker's spot or have Ross actually rotate to that guy if Karaban was sticking with his man? Yeah. But in the end, the communication didn't happen, and then who was he guarding on the play when that particular communication didn't happen? Nobody. He was in no man's land.

 

[HW611]

Two thoughts to consider. The first is that this is a biased selection of games (despite understandable reason to pick these). He got more minutes in these games in part because he was effective and/or his skillset was needed. It's sampling bias.

Secondly, you're just underselling some of his issues. He didn't do a good job consistently playing defense with his feet. The fouls are a problem. In the 2nd Xavier game for instance, he just fouled 4 times in 25 minutes. He wasn't unlucky with fouls or any other sort of minimization. He fouled 4 guys. In the first Xavier game, he fouled 4 times in 19 minutes. One of them was the horrible make-up call (though he did grab the guy, but they usually let that go), but the rest were clear fouls. I thought most of the times you wrote bailout or judge for yourself were good calls. He's aggressive and swings down, jumps into attackers, and reaches in, and defenders lose protections when they do those things.

Overall, he averaged a foul every 7 minutes in the games you picked, which would foul him out in games if he got starting caliber minutes. And again these were the games he earned the most playing time through good performances. Other games were even worse. He had 4 fouls in 12 minutes in the Dayton game. There's a lot of "11 minutes, 2 fouls" in his game log. Fouling is bad, and there are trickle down effects that lead to more points for the opponent even if it didn't directly translate to points in the moment. Especially since he had such a marginal steal rate relative.

Also, sometimes you noted an error, but then blamed someone else. Like on the Karaban dunker spot thing. Could he and Karaban have communicated and done a better job having Karaban guard the guy in the dunker's spot or have Ross actually rotate to that guy if Karaban was sticking with his man? Yeah. But in the end, the communication didn't happen, and then who was he guarding on the play when that particular communication didn't happen? Nobody. He was in no man's land.

I understand part of the reason for these looking good is the fact that him playing longer probably means he’s playing well. I was just looking for a way to cut down the games watched while getting a lot of plays to judge. But that’s a fair point.

Maybe sometime next week I’ll do the 10-15 min non-cupcake games.

Xavier part 2, I only contested one of the fouls which the announcer also called a bad call. Out of the other 3 only one of them came from on ball defense which maybe the worst one from his on ball defense of the bunch.

In Xavier part 2, his 4 foul calls was the play where Reed doesn’t stop ball in transition, he undercuts a guy on a rebound, the cheap foul call discussed, and this supposed to be block here:

Realizing some of these timestamps are pulling up the wrong play. But it’s at 1:21:27



Only one of those fouls came from Ross’s on ball defense. Haven’t checked the film on the other games to speak on those. But for these, he’s not fouling a ton when he’s on ball.

I didn’t assign blame to anyone in particular on the exchange with him and Karaban either, just noted everything that was going on. Wouldn’t say he was in no mans land as at some point he had committed to the player in the dunker spot and that’s when the pass to Maddox was made. He just had no business being there and that should’ve been someone else’s responsibility for the exact reason of Maddox being that open. But that’s not a blame one guy thing rather than a he and Karaban both had to do a better job of communicating on that. If Ross stayed attached to Maddox it may be an easy dunk instead if no one picks him up.

One more thing about the fouling, as a guy who’s main job is to come in strictly to play aggressive defense the foul numbers don’t surprise me. Especially since his minutes were usually limited. If you’re in a big role, like Castle for instance, there will be instances where you may fall back on certain plays to avoid picking up a foul so you can stay on the court more. In Ross’s case, he’s not worried about that so he’s more likely to pick up cheap fouls that come from playing hard more than the average player who is getting extended minutes. Feel like that’s important context to note. While also typically guarding the other teams best player.

If he had a consistent role that the team had to rely on him to be on the court as much as possible for, I think he would be smarter about how he used some of these fouls.

 

[dennismenace]

Impressive amount of work. Probably won't get too many challenges. Deep dive!

"In Ross’s case, he’s not worried about that so he’s more likely to pick up cheap fouls that come from playing hard more than the average player who is getting extended minutes. Feel like that’s important context to note. While also typically guarding the other teams best player".

Above quote and what followed is a good explanation of how aggressiveness is often punished on defense when the refs are so inclined. If they're being so, it doesn't help for the coach to go too overboard. It kind of turns into a fire hydrant kind of contest.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Wow! This is incredible. I applaud your work.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Applaud the effort and I think everyone is rooting for him as it ultimately makes the team better if he can become prime…Lyman Depriest? I have to ask though, wouldn’t this massive effort bear more fruit if sent to Danny, Kimani, Luke or Glenn instead of posting for us nitwits? Or are you assuming they read our drivel? If the ultimate goal is getting JRoss more playing time, we have no juice. I mean if you need any evidence of that, Danny has yet to utilize our double bigs blinding ingenuity.

 

[UCan3]

Amen Brother. In Ross I believe!

I have to admit in that BC Game I was like who’s this? This dude look like he ain’t playing around. This might have been the one thing I was most excited about in the BC game aside from Mullins looking like he will be the offensive firepower we’ve been missing. And Reibe too looks like he will just get better and better. Furphy I need to see him on the court more - he may be someone that emerges.

 

[HW611]

Applaud the effort and I think everyone is rooting for him as it ultimately makes the team better if he can become prime…Lyman Depriest? I have to ask though, wouldn’t this massive effort bear more fruit if sent to Danny, Kimani, Luke or Glenn instead of posting for us nitwits? Or are you assuming they read our drivel? If the ultimate goal is getting JRoss more playing time, we have no juice. I mean if you need any evidence of that, Danny has yet to utilize our double bigs blinding ingenuity.

Haha I’d be stunned if they didn’t have someone on staff who did this kind of stuff already.

Ross will get more playing time when he acts like the ball doesn’t have cooties on the other end of the floor.

 

[Lafayette]

I don't like the +/- for each player. It's computed by score change while they clock minutes but there are so many reasons it does not resemble reality.

1. UConn fouls a 3 pt shooter and Hurley yanks the guy who did an inserts another player - say Ross. 3 foul shots made, Ross is -3.
2. On ball defense - you can deny, front, and get the ball out of your guy's hands but if anyone else fails at their job, you also get -2 for a bucket.
3. Players who don't shoot volume suffer the most. Ross is not a prolific shooter, quite the opposite, so he has limited + opportunities directly. Mullins and Karaban and Solo and Tarris probably have the most chances any given night and a player like that who gets hot would be smart to grab a bench seat and rest, hydrate. Not saying they do, but do game the system for +, they could.

Anyway, stats and the eye test tell a lot more than any +/- will.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Ross will get more playing time when he acts like the ball doesn’t have cooties on the other end of the floor.

Having confidence in whatever you’re doing is such a huge and overlooked piece of the puzzle.

 

[GlastonTim]

Ross will get more playing time when he acts like the ball doesn’t have cooties on the other end of the floor.

This.

 

[RuffRuff]

Wow, that’s a lot of work. I will say that Jim Boeheim always laughed at individual computerized defensive grading. He said something like “how the hell does a computer program know if an individual defender is doing what I’d want him to be doing in any particular circumstance.”

So says the father of the 2-3 zone.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Overall observations

First off, I thank anyone who actually goes through these posts and entertains my addiction to UConn basketball because it is a lot.

I can see why Hurley loves both Ross and Samson. When they're out there, they play hard and they are locked in on the defensive end. Even when Samson made his mistakes, he made it at 100mph. In comparison to Reed and Stewart, who when they made mistakes on defense they seemed more confused, frozen, or in no man's land. Some of the stuff just looked lazy.

I don't think there's anyone on the team besides Karaban who knows the defense and its fundamentals better than Ross. He was consistently in the right places, whether it was in help, avoiding screens, being tight on his man and denying him the ball, whatever was needed. I can't see how you could watch this film and not think he's closer to being the best defender on the team rather than the worst.

His biggest area for improvement this year will probably be communicating more on that end and being a leader. He fully understands where he is supposed to be and what he is supposed to be doing. The next step is making sure everyone else does too. But that goes back to him needing to be more aggressive in general.

I’ve said all along, I don’t have to squint hard to see him becoming a defensive stopper. I do find it interesting to see your view is that he needs to be more aggressive on defense. I’d say almost the exact opposite. To me his biggest issue is that he mixes in good defensive possessions with giving some absolute wide open looks to his man. The common theme I see is over-aggressiveness. He tends to bite on pump fakes, gets off balance pressuring the ball-handler, or over helps off-ball. I loved seeing the second half against BC because he seemed to play much more composed on the defensive end. He’s long, athletic, and has some good defensive instincts, and doesn’t need to do as much as he has historically to be a disruptive defender.