FF Teams Tourney Stats: What the Facts Say | The Boneyard

FF Teams Tourney Stats: What the Facts Say

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DobbsRover2

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NCAA keeps a tally of the tourney stats for all 64 teams in 21 or so categories. The team stats have a lot of revealing info about how teams have either been getting it done or not getting it done in the NCAAs. The individual leader stats are largely worthless because there are no minimum requirements and most of the players listed played just 1 game and sank 1 three point attempt or went 1-1 at the FT line.

For the four FF teams, UConn is naturally the leader in 15 of the 21 categories and is as low as third only in two stats. Outside of scoring margin, the category where the four teams rank the highest as a group among the 64 teams is FG%, in which they rank 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 10th. The category least related to tournament success is likely FT%, in which the FF teams rank 10th, 27th, 34th, and 44th, which may be a little discouraging to those who believe that hitting the FTs proficiently is a major key to Tourney success. FWIW, the per game averages:

Scoring offense: UConn 94.0, SC 81.2, ND 78.5, MD 70.8
Scoring defense: UConn 53.0, MD 57.5, ND 59.5, SC 63.8
Scoring margin: UConn 41.0, ND 19.0, SC 17.5, MD 13.2
FT%: MD 82.3%, UConn 75.0%, SC 72.3%, ND 66.7%
FG%: SC 56.3%, UConn 55.3%, ND 50.6%, MD 46.8%
FG% defense: UConn 34%, ND 36.1%, SC 36.6%, MD 39.3%
3pt FG%: ND 46.2%, MD 44.1%, UConn 43.2%, SC 39.2%
3pt FG% defense: MD 23.2%, ND 25.3%, UConn 30.4%, SC 34.4%
Rebounding: UConn 45.0, ND 42.8, MD 38.5, SC 34.5
Rebounding opp.: MD 28.3, UConn 29.3, SC 32.0, ND 35.2
Rebound margin: UConn 15.7, MD 10.2, ND 7.5, SC 2.5
Blocks: UConn 7.3, ND 5.5, SC 4.8, MD 3.0
Assists: UConn 21.0, SC 17.8, ND 16.5, MD 14.5
Steals: UConn 8.8, ND 8.3, SC 6.3, MD 4.0
Turnover margin: UConn 4.25, ND 0.50, SC -1.25, MD -3.25
Assist\TO margin: UConn 1.9, SC 1.3, ND 1.3, MD 1.0
Offensive Rebounds: UConn 14.5, ND 12.0, MD 11.5, SC 9.0
Defensive rebounds: ND 30.8, UConn 30.5, MD 27.0, SC 25.5
Defensive rebounding %: MD 74.0%, UConn 71.3%, ND 69.9%, SC 64.6%
Offensive rebounding %: UConn 46.0%, MD 38.0%, ND 35.3%, SC 33.3%
3pt FGs per game: UConn 9.5, MD 7.5, SC 5.0, ND 4.5

Clearly just because a team has had certain stat trends in the first four games, it's not a sure thing that they will continue, but then again, the stats say some interesting things have been happening so far. Good or bad match ups in the earlier games may also have skewed things a bit, but the team stat summary is:

UConn: As Voepel noted, there's not much to say except they're really good. In every stat you look at they are getting the job done, and the Offensive Rebounding% is amazing, though they will be facing an MD team with the top Defensive Rebounding%. The scoring margin is hugely ahead of the other three teams. Perhaps the least glossy stat is the opponents 3pt FG% largely because of the Dayton game, and MD has been shooting the 3s often and well, so that may be something to focus on.

Maryland: The Terps have done well at controlling the boards even with their three guard offense. That has helped them to do okay holding the score down even though opponents are shooting at a high 39% rate, which could be worrisome for a Terp team against UConn. Their -3.25 turnover margin is also not good, however they have been shooting the 3s pretty well while also being the stingiest at denying opponent's 3s, so they will likely be trying to keep KML under control while hoping their front court can hold up under the basket. And with the rate the Terps are shooting at the line, the Huskies do no want to put them there.

Notre Dame: The Irish stats have been pretty solid and are the second best overall, as they are shooting and rebounding pretty well, and though their turnover margin is barely positive, you can't find anything particularly worrisome about their stats. The main thing that stands out is that even though they are shooting the 3s a little better than UConn and USCar, they also have the least 3s per game at only 4.5. Against a USCar team that has allowed a pretty high 34.4% rate, ND may be working the perimeter a bit more.

South Carolina: For a team reputed to have a strong front court, the GC-ocks have had a really tough time on the boards in the Tourney, out-rebounding opponents by a measly 2.5 margin. They have shot the ball well and done some good scoring, and the assists are being dished but they also have but also have a negative turnover margin. The perimeter has been a testy area for them as they have shot the arc balls at a decent 39.2% but have allowed opponents to do that high 34.4%.

It was hard for any players on the four teams to make the individual leaders lists because of the no minimum game setting, and some categories have no one who is playing in the FF. But these are the ones who made it:

Scoring: Tuck - UConn 19.8, Stewart - UConn 19.8
Rebounding: Jones - MD 10.3, Stewart - UConn 10.0
FG%: Jefferson - UConn 69.4%, Coates - SC 68.0%
Assists: Allen - ND 6.3
FT%: Mosqueda-Lewis - UConn 8-8, 100%
3pt FGs per game: Mosqueda- Lewis - UConn 3.5
Blocks: Stokes - UConn 3.3
Assist\TO ratio: Dozier - SC 4.3, Jefferson - UConn 3.7, Allen - ND 3.6
Offensive Rebounds: Jones - MD 4.0
Defensive Rebounds: Stewart - UConn 8.0

And no, ESPN's pick for NPOY does not make any of the lists, though Lindsey Allen does.
 

DobbsRover2

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Great post, by the way.
Glad you caught an allusion. Never could quite figure out what he does say, but it's by a Norwegian group, so maybe something gets lost in translation. As for BB facts, never have a clue what they say, at least about the future.
 
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