Feinberg Stat: Beating UConn Unseen

[nd2tty]

Sorry if this has been discussed before here, but I was watching a replay of the Texas S16 game from last year and Doris Burke used a stat from AP writer Doug Feinberg: "only twice - once in 1999 and once in 2004 - in the last 20 years has a team facing UConn beaten them meeting them for the first time".

I assume Feinberg means overall (not in the same season, or in the regular season vs. tournament (which doesn't work with that stat either)).

Unless Burke repeated the stat incorrectly, I can't figure out what he is talking about. In 1999, UConn lost to Tennessee, Boston College, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, and Iowa State. Tennessee and Boston College aside, UConn played Louisiana Tech in 1991 and 1995, Old Dominion in 1998, and Iowa State in 1990. In 2004, UConn lost to Duke, Notre Dame, Villanova, Boston College, UNC, Arizona State, and Michigan State. Conference foes, Duke, and UNC aside, UConn played Arizona State in 2003, and Michigan State in 1996.

What am I missing here?

 

[sarals24]

Maybe he meant that particular team? Not the school itself, but the players on that team? Like, if Tennessee beat UConn this year it would be unbelievable (on a lot of levels) because none of the players have faced UConn even though the programs have played? Just a guess. I have no clue.

 

[ThisJustIn]

When UConn lost to Tennessee, Boston College, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, and Iowa State, was that the first time they'd played?

 

[chrissaran]

It means the first time they've ever played that school, the first time ever.

 

[nd2tty]

Maybe he meant that particular team? Not the school itself, but the players on that team? Like, if Tennessee beat UConn this year it would be unbelievable (on a lot of levels) because none of the players have faced UConn even though the programs have played? Just a guess. I have no clue.

Hmm, yeah maybe, dunno...Seems like an odd stipulation to have and difficult to figure out: i.e. whether a particular roster had never faced another particular roster (not difficult to figure in UConn's case necessarily, just difficult/weird in general).

 

[nd2tty]

When UConn lost to Tennessee, Boston College, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, and Iowa State, was that the first time they'd played?

No, see above.

 

[nd2tty]

It means the first time they've ever played that school, the first time ever.

Hmm, well, then the stat is wrong, which is odd cause Feinberg is *usually* pretty accurate.

 

[dtbtbtb]

I think they meant, that only 2 times UConn lost in the NCAA tournment to a team they didn't play that season during the regular season. In other words, if you want a chance to beat UConn in the post season you should play them during the season.

 

[ucdt3]

The amount of times it's happened and the year 2004 (obviously) are incorrect. And the quote meant (I remember her saying it and the context in which she meant it), if you're going to beat UConn in the NCAA tournament (which Dayton was attempting to do rather successfully at the time she made it), you better have played them already that season because in the past 20 years, only two (it's actually 4) teams have ever done it.

http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-women/hc-webuconnwomenncaatournamentmar25-story.html
1998 NC State (Elite 8); 1999 - Iowa State (Sweet 16); 2005 - Stanford (Sweet 16); 2006 - Duke (Elite 8).

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools...16/misc_non_event/w-baskbl-media-guide-16.pdf

 

[nd2tty]

I think they meant, that only 2 times UConn lost in the NCAA tournment to a team they didn't play that season during the regular season. In other words, if you want a chance to beat UConn in the post season you should play them during the season.

Yeah, that's what I thought initially too. However, in 2004 they won the championship, so that doesn't work. Unless he meant the 2004-2005 season when they lost to Stanford in the tournament and never faced them in the regular season, which does work. But in that case, those two times weren't the only times it happened Other years than 1999 and 2004, they lost to a team in the tournament that they never faced in the regular season: take, for example, 1997-1998 when they lost to NC State, or 2005-2006 when they lost to Duke.

 

[nd2tty]

The amount of times it's happened and the year 2004 (obviously) are incorrect. And the quote meant (I remember her saying it and the context in which she meant it), if you're going to beat UConn in the NCAA tournament (which Dayton was attempting to do rather successfully at the time she made it), you better have played them already that season because in the past 20 years, only two (it's actually 4) teams have ever done it.

1998 NC State (Elite 8); 1999 - Iowa State (Sweet 16); 2005 - Stanford (Sweet 16); 2006 - Duke (Elite 8).

Ah, ok, thanks. That makes more sense. Just doesn't sound quite as good, especially given that UConn has only lost in the tournament 10 times in the last 20 years. So, roughly just more than half of the time did it help to have seen them in regular season before meeting in tournament. (Not discounting, of course, the fact that ND was able to compete largely because of their familiarity).

 

[ucdt3]

Ah, ok, thanks. That makes more sense. Just doesn't sound quite as good, especially given that UConn has only lost in the tournament 10 times in the last 20 years. So, roughly just more than half of the time did it help to have seen them in regular season before meeting in tournament. (Not discounting, of course, the fact that ND was able to compete largely because of their familiarity).

Well it's more than WAY 10 times because UConn faced up to 6 teams each tournament over those 20 years. Many, many of those teams were seeing UConn for the first time that season. But I can easily see how thinking we won 10 titles and lost 10 times total would make it look like only 4 out of those 10 losses were at the hands of a team able to beat us while playing us for the first time that season.

And I concur, 4 doesn't sound quite as good as 2.

 

[nd2tty]

Well it's more than WAY 10 times because UConn faced up to 6 teams each tournament over those 20 years. Many, many of those teams were seeing UConn for the first time that season. But I can easily see how thinking we won 10 titles and lost 10 times total would make it look like only 4 out of those 10 losses were at the hands of a team able to beat us while playing us for the first time that season.

And I concur, 4 doesn't sound quite as good as 2.

Ah, right of course, good point. I wonder what the actual numbers are...would probably take a while to crunch.