FBS Bracketology 2019

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Purple Stein

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For the last two years, I've been running a 24 team FBS Tournament sim modeled on the FCS tournament. The winner of the 2017 Purple Stein Cup was the Georgia Bulldogs, who defeated actual champion Alabama 27-13 in the national championship game. In 2018, 11th seeded LSU beat Alabama 14-10 in the national championship game (actual champion Clemson was eliminated in the round of 16).

I intend to sim the same tournament this year, and with the first CFP poll out, it's time for some FBS Bracketology! The first field consists of all conference champions as automatic qualifiers and the highest remaining CFP ranked teams as at-large bids. Non-CFP ranked AQs were slotted by their Massey index rating. As of 11/8, here's the field:

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. La Tech (AQ) @ 9. Oklahoma (8. Utah)
23. Miami (OH) (AQ) @ 10. Florida (7. Oregon -- AQ)
22. App St (AQ) @ 11. Auburn (6. Georgia)
21. Boise St (AQ) @ 12. Baylor (AQ) (5. Clemson -- AQ)
20. Cincinnati (AQ) @ 13. Wisconsin (4. Penn State)
19. Wake Forest @ 14. Michigan (3. Alabama)
18. Iowa @ 15 Notre Dame(2. LSU -- AQ)
17. Minnesota @ 16. Kansas State (1. Ohio State -- AQ)

Last Four In -- Kansas St., Minnesota, Iowa, Wake Forest
First Four Out -- Memphis, Oklahoma State, Navy, SMU
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): Texas A&M, Washington, Iowa State, Texas, UCF, USC.

Teams by Conference -- SEC - 6, B1G -6, Big 12 -2, Pac 12 --2 ACC- 2, All other conferences -- 1 each. The AAC is sniffing all around the edges of the tournament with Memphis, SMU, and Navy in the first four out and UCF right behind.

I'll update again after the next CFP poll is released. Today's most meaningful games:

  • Iowa State looks to get off the bubble at Oklahoma.
  • Penn State goes to Minnesota in a matchup of tournament teams.
  • Iowa goes to Wisconsin with a potential home game in the first round on the line.
  • LSU travels to Alabama in a fairly meaningless game between two teams who seem to have first round byes locked up.
  • Sun Belt leader App State looks to improve its ranking at South Carolina.
 

Purple Stein

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It's week 2 of bracketology! Here is your updated field:

24. W Michigan (AQ) @ 9. Penn State (8. Minnesota) -- How good does that quarterfinal rematch look?
23. La Tech (AQ) @ 10. Oklahoma (AQ) (7. Utah) -- Red Pants travels to his previous home.
22. App St (AQ) @ 11. Florida (6. Oregon -- AQ)
21. Boise St (AQ) @ 12. Auburn (AQ) (5. Alabama)
20. Iowa @ 13. Baylor (4. Georgia)
19. Texas @ 14. Wisconsin (3. Clemson -- AQ)
18. Memphis @ 15 Michigan (2. Ohio State-- AQ)
17. Cincinnati (AQ) @ 16. Notre Dame (1. LSU -- AQ) -- The Brian Kelly bowl.

Dropped Out: Kansas St, Wake Forest, Miami (OH)
Last Four In: Notre Dame, Memphis, Texas, Iowa
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Navy, Kansas St, SMU

On the Bubble (top 30 Massey, not in the field): Washington, UCF, Air Force, USC

Big Games This Week:
  • Navy looks to get off the bubble with a big win at Notre Dame.
  • Wake Forest looks to get back into playoff contention at Clemson.
  • Auburn hosts Georgia with a first round bye potentially on the line.
  • Minnesota travels to Iowa as both teams fight for home field in the first round.
  • Oklahoma travels to Baylor with the Big 12's AQ on the line.
Look at all those AAC teams in the hunt!
 
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ESPN FPI is a simulation...they run 10,000 simulations..

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
 

Purple Stein

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It's week 3 of bracketology! Here is your updated field:

24. Miami OH (AQ) @ 9. Oklahoma (AQ) (8. Penn St.)
23. La Tech (AQ) @ 10. Minnesota (7. Utah)
22. App St (AQ) @ 11. Florida (6. Oregon -- AQ)
21. Oklahoma St @ 12. Wisconsin (5. Alabama)
20. Boise St (AQ) @ 13. Michigan (4. Georgia)
19. Cincinnati @ 14. Baylor (3. Clemson -- AQ)
18. Memphis (AQ) @ 15 Auburn (2. Ohio State-- AQ)
17. Iowa @ 16. Notre Dame (1. LSU -- AQ)

Dropped Out: Western Michigan, Texas
Last Four In: Notre Dame, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
First Four Out: Iowa State, USC, SMU, Texas A&M

On the Bubble (top 30 Massey, not in the field): Washington, Air Force, Navy, Texas

Big Games This Week:
  • Penn State travels to Ohio State with a first round bye on the line.
  • Two bubble teams look to make their case when SMU travels to Navy.
  • Texas A&M looks to get off the bubble at Georgia.
  • Texas has a must win at Baylor.
So many games with playoff implications -- if we just had a real playoff!
 
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Purple Stein

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It's week 4 of bracketology! Here is your updated field:

24. Central Michigan (AQ) @ 9. Baylor (8. Minnesota)
23. Florida Atlantic (AQ) @ 10. Penn St (7. Oklahoma -- AQ)
22. App St (AQ) @ 11. Florida (6. Utah -- AQ) -- This game would be a blast and might slant App State.
21. Oklahoma St @ 12. Wisconsin (5. Alabama)
20. Boise St (AQ) @ 13. Michigan (4. Georgia)
19. Cincinnati @ 14. Oregon (3. Clemson -- AQ)
18. Memphis (AQ) @ 15 Auburn (2. LSU-- AQ)
17. Iowa @ 16. Notre Dame (1. Ohio State -- AQ)

Dropped Out: Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH)
Last Four In: Notre Dame, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
First Four Out: USC, Iowa St., VA Tech, Navy

On the Bubble (top 30 Massey, not in the field): UCF, Texas A&M, SMU, Air Force, LA Tech

Big Games This Week:
  • Memphis put themselves in the tournament with a win over Cincinnati this week. Will they have to beat them again next week to get a home game?
  • Wisconsin travels to Minnesota with a first round bye possibly on the line.
  • Texas A&M has one last chance to play themselves into the tournament with a huge game at LSU.
  • Oklahoma State's tournament starts today at Oklahoma. Win and they're in -- lose, they are likely out.
  • And, in the spirit of fun, don't forget -- Army at Hawaii, 12:30 AM, CBS Sports Network!
So many games with playoff implications -- if only we had a real playoff!
 
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