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Message: [QUOTE="UcMiami, post: 3872186, member: 199"] Everybody gets freaked out about the committee and how the seeds are going to go, but the reality is every team is going to have to play six games to win an NC and three of those games are going to be against really good teams that are playing really well themselves. Most years come down to a FF populated by 4 team from the top ten of everyone's list. Here is a decade by decade analysis of FF seeds (perfect score would be 4.0 = 4 one seeds 6.0 = 2 ones and 2 twos, or 3 ones and 1 three etc.): 1990-1999 score is 9.6, 7 years in which a seed other than a 1 or 2 made the FF and 14 non 1 or 2 seed team in the 10 years of FF 2000-2009 score is 7.2, 4 years with other than a 1 or a 2 seed, and 7 non 1 or 2 in the decade. 2010-2019 score is 7.0, 4 years with other than a 1 or 2 seed and 6 non 1 or 2 seeds in the decade. If you throw out the worst year in each decade as an aberration (eg a #7 seed Washington taking down a 3 and a 4 and two #4 seeds taking out 2 #1s) The scores would be: 9.1/6.4/6.2 Two things, an average of 7.0/7.2 is pretty good for a 64 team tournament for a decade, and the committee has done noticeably better since 2000 than before 2000 (I might say the game has grown up.) [7.0 = 3 #1s and #4, or 2#1s and a #2 and a #3, or 1 #1 and 3#2s] In terms of 30 years of tournaments only 2 teams not seeded as a 1 or a 2 ever won the tournament both #3 seeds, the last time when TN got healthy and won in 1997. Baylor in 2005, MD in 2006, and TA&M in 2011 are the only teams to win not seeded #1 since TN's win in 1997, all as a #2 seed. [/QUOTE]

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