It's interesting to me that Mulkey doesn't get more credit. It's possible they did underachieve in two of Griner's four postseasons — once to a red-hot A&M team that Baylor had already beaten three times, and once in a game that ranks among the most bizarrely physical that I've ever seen. But it's also true that outside of Griner and Sims, Baylor's supporting cast was pedestrian at best. I bet most people on this site don't even remember the other starters' names.
But even if we insist on diminishing her NC in 2012, there's no denying that her achievement in turning around a bottom-feeder Baylor WBB program was Geno-like, just based on the records alone. The 1999-2000 Baylor team went 7-20 (2-14) in Sonja Hogg's last year. In Mulkey's first year in 2000-01? 21-9 (9-7) with an NCAA tournament bid. In only her fourth year at Baylor (2003-04), she took her team to the Sweet 16 where they suffered the infamous loss to Tennessee on free throws with 0.2 seconds on the clock. And in the following year (2004-05), she won the whole enchilada. She took an uber-gifted but very rough talent in Sophia Young and developed her into a superstar by her junior year.
It's puzzling to me that Mulkey's two titles should count for less than Muffet's one (which she won when Mulkey was in her first year at Baylor) or, for that matter, than Tara's two (won when Mulkey was just an assistant at La Tech).
The rest of her team in 2012 wasn't pedestrian though...they had a lot of really good college players. Destiny Williams was a top 10 recruit in 09, Brookilyn Pope was a very good forward and a former McDonald's AA game MVP (she torched UCONN in 2013), Hayden was a very good wing, Madden was a good wing, etc. None of those players went on to be players in the W, but they were good collegiate players and played well against the best competition.
Kim had 3 years with Griner and Sims and she only managed one Final Four. What would the results look like if it was Tara, Geno or Muffett with those players? Likely more than just the one Final Four.
I will give her credit for turning around the program and making Baylor a consistent top 10 team, that ability alone establishes her as one of the more elite coaches in the country. But now that she's hauling in the talent, she's done less with more for the last 5 seasons. Her teams are littered with McDonald's All Americans and she regularly has top 10 kids on her team and they get beat by lesser teams in the tournament.
I do not think titles are the end all be all for evaluating coaching success. To me, a lot comes down to three factors:
1. Ability to take a bad program and make them great
2. Ability to take a team expected to be good and make them great
3. Ability to take a team expected to be great (title favorite) and make them a champion
Most coaches with teams in the top 10 have accomplished #1.
McGraw and Vanderveer have consistently accomplished #2 more even if they haven't won a title in 15+ years. Their programs are usually much better than their preseason ranking would indicate, and more often than not they're in the mix at the Final Four. Mulkey's teams 3 of the last 5 years have been expected to be very good or great, and fell short of expectations. The other two years they had decent teams but didn't overachieve either. I'd personally give Muffett a higher coaching rating for her string of success the last 7 years than I'd give Mulkey for her last 7 years, where she won 1 title in 2012 but hasn't made the Final Four for 6 of the last 7 years.
#3, the only active coach who has mastered this is Geno. Kim has had 4 teams that were either unanimous preseason #1 or were perceived to be a real threat for the title entering the season (2011-2013 and 2017) and has only been able to deliver a Final Four bid once. Missing 2/3 Final Fours with Griner/Sims and striking out last year with that loaded roster is falling well short of expectations.
Muffett and Tara have had just 1 team in the last 15 years that were expected to be title favorites....Notre Dame this past season when they split votes with Connecticut and Baylor, their trajectory changed when Turner got injured in the tournament and they didn't make the Final Four. Stanford's was in 2011 where they made the Final Four and lost in the last 10 seconds to the eventual champion.
The only other teams in the last 15 years who have received a substantial number of preseason #1 votes are Tennessee (who was preseason #1 in 05, 06, and 08...they won a title in 08, made the Final Four in 05, and Elite 8 in 06), Duke (who was preseason #1 in 2003 where they made the Final Four and split with UT in 2006, they had the title won and Maryland stole it from them), and Maryland (unanimous preseason #1 and they lost in the 2nd round....people rip Brenda to shreds on this board).
I don't think it's out of line to argue that Tara and Muffet likely have multiple titles if their best teams didn't coincide when Geno had Maya Moore or had Stewart. Notre Dame very likely goes undefeated in 2014 if there is no UCONN (they went 37-1 with 1 loss to UCONN) and likely wins it all in 2013 and 2015 too. Same for Stanford going undefeated in 2010 and winning it all in 2009 (their only losses in 2010 were to UCONN, and they lost in the semis to UCONN in 2009). Bad timing to face some of Geno's best teams. Contrary to that, Mulkey's titles have come when Geno had his worst team in the last 20+ years (2005), and when his team had 5 losses in one season (which is tied for his 2nd most number of losses in a season since 1992-93, after the 2005 squad). The only title she potential missed out on due to Geno was in 2010 when Baylor got beat handily by UCONN in the semis. That year, even if they faced a different team in the semis and won, they would've faced a red hot Stanford team in the Finals.
Maybe it's just a difference in opinion or there is some bias too it, but to sum it up, I feel that Mulkey has underachieved relative to the talent on her teams while other coaches have consistently met or outperformed expectations, and for that reason I think more highly of the other coaches.
