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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 5297474, member: 1329"] Have to think of it in a Bayesian context. We [I]know[/I] Ball wasn't very good on defense last year, and we only have an [I]idea[/I] that Furphy probably won't be great. Ball will likely improve as players do as they get older, but will he improve enough to be better than Furphy's theoretical average freshman outcome considering how poor Ball was last year? The numbers are close enough that you should consider it like the model saying it's 50/50 as to who will be a better defender. That being said, I think we can be bullish on Ball's defense this year considering his tools and some improvement he showed during the course of the season. [/QUOTE]