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Message: [QUOTE="fomalhaut, post: 4244930, member: 9423"] The historical record of 14 through 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament, through last year, is 1 win and 323 losses: [URL='https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2022-02-24/ncaa-womens-basketball-tournament-seed-records-all-time-history']Records fo[/URL][URL='https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2022-02-24/ncaa-womens-basketball-tournament-seed-records-all-time-history']r every seed[/URL] However, according to ESPN's BPI projections, the 1, 2, and 3 seeds have first-round winning probabilities ranging from .736 (3 Indiana vs. Charlotte) to .982 (South Carolina vs. play-in winner): [URL='https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/33496336/2022-women-ncaa-tournament-odds-bpi-predictions']BPI predictions[/URL] In the first place, it's hard to imagine how they could project such a precise win rate for South Carolina without even knowing its opponent. In the second place, ESPN is predicting there is just above a 20% chance that [B]all twelve 1/2/3 teams will win[/B]: nearly a 1-in-8 chance for another 16 vs. 1 upset, better than 1-in-3 for a 15 vs. 2 upset which has never occurred, and almost 2-in-3 for a 14 vs. 3 which has also never occurred. I'm certainly not claiming that all of the 1/2/3 seeds are guaranteed winners, and sooner or later there will be a 14 or 15 seed upset. But these win rates seem ridiculously low. By comparison, Massey has the 1 and 2 seeds at 99% or even 100%. [/QUOTE]