ESPN big dance simulations. Huskies tied for second best championship, behind SC, of course

[CTtoSanDiego]

ESPN ran 1000 tournament simulations (they used Creme's bracketology). UConn had a 12% win rate, tied with Texas. SC was at 36%. So the BPI still likes us, even if the pollsters don't.

Will South Carolina win the women's NCAA title? ESPN ran the simulation

Which teams might be the biggest threats to South Carolina's perfect run? ESPN simulated the NCAA tournament 1,000 times using BPI and Bracketology.

www.espn.com

 

[VaConnFan11]

If you go by most of the numerical metrics, UConn is the 2nd best team on paper. It will all come down to matchups. You don't have to beat all 67 teams. You only have to beat 6.

I think being in the Big East really hurt UConn this year. The reason is, the other Big East teams were offensively challenged and played very slow. Each team only had 2, maybe 3 scorers, so playing defense was "easy". The teams UConn lost to had multiple scoring threats and played up tempo for the most part. IMO, hope for teams that play their games in the 130's or lower for total points.

 

[cuzinvinny]

Rebecca said "Don't sleep on UCONN" they will make the Final Four...

 

[PacoSwede]

If you go by most of the numerical metrics, UConn is the 2nd best team on paper. It will all come down to matchups. You don't have to beat all 67 teams. You only have to beat 6.

I think being in the Big East really hurt UConn this year. The reason is, the other Big East teams were offensively challenged and played very slow. Each team only had 2, maybe 3 scorers, so playing defense was "easy". The teams UConn lost to had multiple scoring threats and played up tempo for the most part. IMO, hope for teams that play their games in the 130's or lower for total points.

it always makes a difference. luck of the draw. uconn will face whatever shows up.

so, i think it really 'comes down to' the makeup of the team. will the current crew able to remain intact for the 3 weekends of the tourney.

some of that also involves fickle fate (injury, illness) but the team has some control over trouble with fouls, intensity of play, smart choices, etc. it's better to focus on such things. who we play is irrelevant otherwise.

 

[omshanti]

If you go by most of the numerical metrics, UConn is the 2nd best team on paper. It will all come down to matchups. You don't have to beat all 67 teams. You only have to beat 6.

I think being in the Big East really hurt UConn this year. The reason is, the other Big East teams were offensively challenged and played very slow. Each team only had 2, maybe 3 scorers, so playing defense was "easy". The teams UConn lost to had multiple scoring threats and played up tempo for the most part. IMO, hope for teams that play their games in the 130's or lower for total points.

I agree that the Big East is soft. four of the losses came early in the season. March is Paige’s month. The UConn team I saw in the BE tournament is a different team than a few weeks ago. They just need another scorer each game. After watching some other tournament games I’m not sold on other ‘multiple scoring threats’ from other Top ten teams. Depends on who’s hot that given night. Some teams come out tight when the bright lights come on. The Huskies defense this weekend was lights out; gotta give them their due.

 

[Rowdy831]

If you go by most of the numerical metrics, UConn is the 2nd best team on paper. It will all come down to matchups. You don't have to beat all 67 teams. You only have to beat 6.

I think being in the Big East really hurt UConn this year. The reason is, the other Big East teams were offensively challenged and played very slow. Each team only had 2, maybe 3 scorers, so playing defense was "easy". The teams UConn lost to had multiple scoring threats and played up tempo for the most part. IMO, hope for teams that play their games in the 130's or lower for total points.

True and you can usually get a little help along the way which UConn will need. Not because they don't have the best talent because I think they do, but they don't have the size and when they have played the bigger lineup they lose something. Hopefully fate gave Ice a chance to see that she is good enough and that will help her in the NCAA Tournament.

 

[Bone Dog]

After watching some other tournament games I’m not sold on other ‘multiple scoring threats’ from other Top ten teams. Depends on who’s hot that given night.

Absolutely agree. The SEC and Pac12 tournaments showed this pretty clearly. Juju had weak games and it wasn’t entirely from tough defense against her. She’s a tremendous talent, but she can feel the pressure. Watching the final against Stanford, my first thought was we could beat either one of them. In the SEC, SC came out really flat in the last two games. They looked eminently beatable, though maybe not by us. They are still a great team, the favorites for a good reason. But there seems to be a motivation lull going on down in Columbia. We’ll see if Dawn can turn it around. It may be the difference between storming to an NC and just squeaking by.

 

[CTtoSanDiego]

the men were a 4 seed last year. They have won as a 7, 4, 3, and twice as a 1