ESPN article on 2nd year coaches

[methodology]

Second-year coaches: Who's ascending, who's stagnating?

The rookies in charge will get a lot of the preseason attention, but it's the second season that could make or break the tenure of these coaches.

www.espn.com

Dan Hurley, UConn Huskies
Hurley's tenure will get an immediate jolt next season when UConn returns to the Big East, where it had an enormous amount of success under Jim Calhoun. But before then, the Huskies have one final season in the American Athletic Conference -- but it's unlikely they will be competing for a conference title as a farewell.
UConn finished tied for ninth in Hurley's first season at the helm, but it's clear the Huskies are bringing in more talent than in Kevin Ollie's final couple of years. Jalen Gaffney and James Bouknight were both ESPN 100 recruits in the backcourt, while Akok Akok was a top-50 recruit before enrolling at UConn early. Hurley also already landed ESPN 100 prospect Andre Jackson for the 2020 class.
Hurley's calling card in the past has been his team's improvement in his first three years. At Wagner, he went from 13-17 in his first season to 25-6 and 15-3 in the Northeast Conference. It's hard to foresee UConn making that sort of leap in Year 2. But at Rhode Island, it was 8-21 to 14-18 and then 23-10 in Year 3. That seems more likely for what Hurley will do with the Huskies. They will undoubtedly be improved this season, but they're poised to make a big jump in Year 3 -- their first season back in the Big East.

 

[McLovin]

Second-year coaches: Who's ascending, who's stagnating?

The rookies in charge will get a lot of the preseason attention, but it's the second season that could make or break the tenure of these coaches.

www.espn.com

Dan Hurley, UConn Huskies
Hurley's tenure will get an immediate jolt next season when UConn returns to the Big East, where it had an enormous amount of success under Jim Calhoun. But before then, the Huskies have one final season in the American Athletic Conference -- but it's unlikely they will be competing for a conference title as a farewell.
UConn finished tied for ninth in Hurley's first season at the helm, but it's clear the Huskies are bringing in more talent than in Kevin Ollie's final couple of years. Jalen Gaffney and James Bouknight were both ESPN 100 recruits in the backcourt, while Akok Akok was a top-50 recruit before enrolling at UConn early. Hurley also already landed ESPN 100 prospect Andre Jackson for the 2020 class.
Hurley's calling card in the past has been his team's improvement in his first three years. At Wagner, he went from 13-17 in his first season to 25-6 and 15-3 in the Northeast Conference. It's hard to foresee UConn making that sort of leap in Year 2. But at Rhode Island, it was 8-21 to 14-18 and then 23-10 in Year 3. That seems more likely for what Hurley will do with the Huskies. They will undoubtedly be improved this season, but they're poised to make a big jump in Year 3 -- their first season back in the Big East.

It could be the blindness I suffered from watching 3 losing seasons or just having very wishful thinking, but I think a 20 win season and a shot at an NCAA berth is more likely than 14-18 as they reference here.

There are 8 gimme non-conference games, including the first game at CoCC. Win 1 more in Charleston and 1 of Florida (unlikely), at Villanova (also unlikely) or Indiana (most likely of the 3) and we would be 10-3 in the non-conference schedule.

10-8 in the conference should be possible. Here's the road to that...
@Cincy L
@USF W
vs Tulane W
vs Wichita L
@Houston L
vs Tulsa W
vs Temple W
@Memphis L
@Tulsa L
vs Cincy W
@SMU L
vs Memphis W
@Temple L
vs USF W
vs UCF W
@ECU W
vs Houston L
@Tulane W

That puts us at 20-11 heading into the conference tournament. Probably need to make the semi-finals if not the finals to get onto the bubble for an NCAA berth.

If we can turn some of those L's into W's (any 3 games of: vs Wichita, vs Houston, @ temple, @ Tulsa, @ SMU) we could put ourselves in much better spot to get into the NCAA and be a 24 win team.

Either way, I can't wait for this season to begin. I think this year's team is going to be way more entertaining to watch regardless of wins and losses.

 

[goskis2018]

It could be the blindness I suffered from watching 3 losing seasons or just having very wishful thinking, but I think a 20 win season and a shot at an NCAA berth is more likely than 14-18 as they reference here.

There are 8 gimme non-conference games, including the first game at CoCC. Win 1 more in Charleston and 1 of Florida (unlikely), at Villanova (also unlikely) or Indiana (most likely of the 3) and we would be 10-3 in the non-conference schedule.

10-8 in the conference should be possible. Here's the road to that...
@Cincy L
@USF W
vs Tulane W
vs Wichita L
@Houston L
vs Tulsa W
vs Temple W
@Memphis L
@Tulsa L
vs Cincy W
@SMU L
vs Memphis W
@Temple L
vs USF W
vs UCF W
@ECU W
vs Houston L
@Tulane W

That puts us at 20-11 heading into the conference tournament. Probably need to make the semi-finals if not the finals to get onto the bubble for an NCAA berth.

If we can turn some of those L's into W's (any 3 games of: vs Wichita, vs Houston, @ temple, @ Tulsa, @ SMU) we could put ourselves in much better spot to get into the NCAA and be a 24 win team.

Either way, I can't wait for this season to begin. I think this year's team is going to be way more entertaining to watch regardless of wins and losses.

I don't think the author meant we would be 14-18 but rather that we will have a more gradual turn around like the one Hurley had at URI as opposed to the dramatic year over year turnaround Hurley had at Wagner.

 

[JB75]

I kno it’s the norm here and human nature to expect a good season but I really can’t see why we wouldn’t be at least a bubble team if : the freshman have an impact like they are supposed to.- CV plays like a senior and AG stays healthy and Carlton continues to improve off last season. That’s not even considering Whaley put on some muscle, Adams supposedly is more improved as shud be polley and sid can’t possibly be worse than last year. And I forgot akok as well and springs as a live body on the boards - Last year we had no AG and Jalen for 30-40 % of the year Cobb was non existent defensively down low and diarra was hurt. I think we hit 20 wins and then some

 

[Waquoit]

I'd go to an NIT game even if it was at Gampel.

 

[Kenny11]

Screw that. The big jump starts this season.

 

[Shine33]

Hurley is improving this team in many facets but looking around the NCAA I still see too many teams that possess qualities we don’t have. We still lack overall toughness (Ollie didn’t recruit “tough-in your face” players imo), we still lack athleticism (see Hurley’s quote on our dunking) and we still lack a guy who can take over a game (Gilbert maybe but he lacks size which limits his ability to take over imo).

I pay close attention to the UW huskies (I’m from Seattle) and seeing how Mike Hopkins has turned that team around and the personnel he has this year, that’s where I see us in the 20-21 21-22 seasons. But unfortunately we are just not there this season. We will be better though!

My prediction: 19-14 or something around there. A potential bubble team

 

[Huskyforlife]

We lost our best player and added some young talent. Expecting us to be better is kind of a stretch.

 

[superjohn]

We lost our best player and added some young talent. Expecting us to be better is kind of a stretch.

I expect us to be a lot better.

 

[ToolzieFan]

We lost our best player and added some young talent. Expecting us to be better is kind of a stretch.

We’ll definitely miss Adams. However, there are a lot of teams who lost their best player, and most decent teams probably lost more talent than we did. I’m not saying we’re a surefire tourney team or anything, but I expect us to better if we’re relatively healthy.

 

[Austin316]

My prediction: 19-14 or something around there. A potential bubble team

we don’t have a strong enough schedule to be a bubble at 19-14... maybe when we get into the Big East that record might look different to the committee. Not in the AAC.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Rodney Terry will orchestrate the biggest turnaround in the history of 2nd year coaches this year @ UTEP. IMO

Should go from a 21 loss season to a 21 win season. I don't have the stats though just speculating this could be the best turnaround.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Is springs for this year? Yes?

 

[Road2Six]

Is springs for this year? Yes?

If you’re asking is he playing this year, yes he is

 

[Hurleyman216]

I expect our defense to be drastically improved. Too many focusing on losing Jalen’s offense, but he was an average or even below average defender for a guard. All indications are that our freshman are an upgrade defensively. We lost a lot of close games. I’m not going to guarantee we make the tournament but if we stay healthy I think we’ll have more wins and be a solid bubble team

 

[QuickDraw]

With a vastly improved D, they should be more efficient on the break, we should have more options in the half court O not relying on JA to create off the dribble like last season. I think the success of this years team lies on their ability to control the boards which killed us last year. Not getting bullied in the lane, boxing out & solid defensive rotations will be the key to our success this year.

 

[CL82]

We should be better.

Having more scoring options will make us harder to guard. We won’t need Jalen to play hero ball for us. We should get more looks which in turn will make penetration easier. Plus our depth is going to mean that we can afford to play uptempo.

Junior year Carlton plus Akok is going to give us a much, much better presence in paint. It will also let our guards be more aggressive at the perimeter. Better defensive rebounding will lead to more fast break opportunities and scoring in transition will be a key for us.

Bouknight is the real deal. Once he figures out the college game and commits to working hard every play expect him to be an impact player. Gaffney, will have his moments, but I think he will come along a little slower.

We should definitely be better. It’s not a guarantee of being a tournament team but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility if everything goes well.

 

[Waquoit]

We lost our best player and added some young talent. Expecting us to be better is kind of a stretch.

When did Vital leave?

 

[intlzncster]

Rodney Terry will orchestrate the biggest turnaround in the history of 2nd year coaches this year @ UTEP. IMO

Should go from a 21 loss season to a 21 win season. I don't have the stats though just speculating this could be the best turnaround.

It would be one of the biggest. I looked into this awhile back and remember there was a team that had a 20 game turnaround and made the Final Four. That's crazy.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

It would be one of the biggest. I looked into this awhile back and remember there was a team that had a 20 game turnaround and made the Final Four. That's crazy.

UTEP beat Texas Tech in a scrimmage by 10 tonight. It was @ UTEP though.

 

[Huskyforlife]

When did Vital leave?

Vital might be a freshman's backup this year.

 

[tzznandrew]

The team will have a better record this year provided there are fewer injuries. Even with injuries, there is much more talent on this team.

People need patience. This team is a year away. Some of the key players on this team wouldn't have cracked our rotation in our heydays, and the most talented players are injury-prone or freshmen.

 

[uconnbill]

We lost our best player and added some young talent. Expecting us to be better is kind of a stretch.

Then I am not sure why you are watching because we all expect others to improve and the new influence of talent will help.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Then I am not sure why you are watching because we all expect others to improve and the new influence of talent will help.

You probably expected us to win it all in 2011 and 2014.