Entering Conference Play - Year 2

[tykurez]

I’m curious to hear what others are feeling heading into conference play in year 2 of Hurley. Numbers-wise (kenpom) it’s a mixed bag but this team feels like an improvement so far.

Offensively, there’s a still-obvious hangover from the late Ollie years. Their adjusted offensive efficiency (95th) is lower than any year since 2007. This is mostly attributable to what point in the season it is as they’re still top-100 (for reference, last year they finished 85th). The last two Ollie years had them finishing > 150.

Defensively, they shine. On pace for one of the better seasons since 2009, when they finished 3rd. Again, it’s early - so the numbers are inflated depending on how you look at it - but they’re currently ranked 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Hurley’s pressure defense + a legitimate shot blocking presence helps there. This could help us win a few more conference games this year. They finished 129th last year, which was worse than all but the very last Ollie year and you’d have to go back to 2001 to even get in the vicinity for a Calhoun year.

Last year, they were 9-4 going into conference play, coming off a stomping by Nova. The major improvement though at the time was that they took care of the garbage teams in non-conference play. None of those games were really in question. But if I recall (other than the Syracuse game), none of the other non-conference games had the feeling like they would pull it off. Even the “closer” losses to Arizona and FSU. This year, they are minutes away from being 11-1 and a collective brain-fart away from being 12-0. The Avg Opp. Ranking might not be vastly improved so far (184 vs. 177) - but the eye test tells you this is a better squad.

It feels like every year they stumble out of the AAC gate, last year no different losing to USF and UCF, so it’s unfortunate to start conference play this year @ Cincinnati because that’s going to be a tough one to pull out. But they way they’ve played the other sub-75 teams on the schedule so far leaves room for hope.

 

[Kenny11]

I didn't want to say it but I think we are going to beat Cinci by double digits. They haven't played since 12/21....they have under-performed in almost every game and it seems like we are very close to clicking. I think it happens on Wednesday.

Overall, I think we finish 2, 3, or 4 in the conference with a good shot to win the tournament.

 

[selles]

I’m curious to hear what others are feeling heading into conference play in year 2 of Hurley. Numbers-wise (kenpom) it’s a mixed bag but this team feels like an improvement so far.

Offensively, there’s a still-obvious hangover from the late Ollie years. Their adjusted offensive efficiency (95th) is lower than any year since 2007. This is mostly attributable to what point in the season it is as they’re still top-100 (for reference, last year they finished 85th). The last two Ollie years had them finishing > 150.

Defensively, they shine. On pace for one of the better seasons since 2009, when they finished 3rd. Again, it’s early - so the numbers are inflated depending on how you look at it - but they’re currently ranked 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Hurley’s pressure defense + a legitimate shot blocking presence helps there. This could help us win a few more conference games this year. They finished 129th last year, which was worse than all but the very last Ollie year and you’d have to go back to 2001 to even get in the vicinity for a Calhoun year.

Last year, they were 9-4 going into conference play, coming off a stomping by Nova. The major improvement though at the time was that they took care of the garbage teams in non-conference play. None of those games were really in question. But if I recall (other than the Syracuse game), none of the other non-conference games had the feeling like they would pull it off. Even the “closer” losses to Arizona and FSU. This year, they are minutes away from being 11-1 and a collective brain-fart away from being 12-0. The Avg Opp. Ranking might not be vastly improved so far (184 vs. 177) - but the eye test tells you this is a better squad.

It feels like every year they stumble out of the AAC gate, last year no different losing to USF and UCF, so it’s unfortunate to start conference play this year @ Cincinnati because that’s going to be a tough one to pull out. But they way they’ve played the other sub-75 teams on the schedule so far leaves room for hope.

Great post, I agree with all of it.

Our defense looks vastly improved. There were a lot of lukewarm reviews of yesterday's game, but I think those missed the fact that we were outstanding on defense for the first 30 minutes. The bigs were particularly good, Whaley caused multiple turnovers with hard hedges in the first and Carlton was fantastic doubling and then getting back to the paint in the second. Knowing that Akok's lurking to clean things up certainly helps with that aggressive style. We are deep, physical and swarming. I think that's Hurley's defensive brand and I look forward to watching it for many years. It's fun and it's effective.

We're very much a work in progress on offense. I think that's primarily because of the combination of old (Gilbert and Vital) and new (Bouk and Gaffney) on the perimeter. We haven't figured out how they all mesh together yet (Adams too, but I think he's already found his role as a classic energetic 6th/7th man). As we hit the conference schedule, it will be interesting to see what Hurley does with the rotations to resolve that. We have the pieces to be a pretty good offensive team.

I'm expecting to be at least over .500 in conference, and I'm hoping that we'll be much better than that. But until we're able to re-establish our winning tradition and build back our mojo it's hard to make confident predictions.

 

[Palatine]

We were 4-12 last year. This is a very tough conference. That said, if there was ever a year to beat Cinninati (our conference opener) this is it.

Bouk is the X factor. If he plays like the best new playing in the AAC, we could have a very good year. If he plays like the last few games., we'll struggle.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Lets just focus on Cincy. I think starting off with a W is very important for this team. Cincy looks vulnerable. While they have size and Cumberland, they seem to struggle at point and defensively. Now having that said....

 

[kemba]

No idea about where we are at compared to last year. Last year felt like we dominated the weak teams much more than this year. This year we have a couple of good wins and a couple of good showings that turned into missed opportunities, last year the Cuse win felt like fools gold and we didn't look as good in our other matchups against good teams. We seem to have a higher ceiling this year but we haven't been consistent at all and usually thats a problem once conference play starts.

So I'm optimistic but wouldn't be shocked if we slip up too much during conference play. Definitely feel positive about our direction, but this year is very important. Definitely disagree with people who have said this is just about getting ready for next year, things can change in a hurry.

 

[tykurez]

No idea about where we are at compared to last year. Last year felt like we dominated the weak teams much more than this year.

I don’t have a vivid memory of the 2018 OOC, but I have the opposite feeling. We’ve had one less power conference game, but last year every other team was ranked > 220. Would be interesting to see how we did against the spread year over year. Gone is the offensive benefit of Jalen Adams being able to control a game. Completely different this year with some of our best offensive options being freshman.

If you told showed me the future OOC stats for AG and CV over the summer I’d have predicted we were in much worse shape than we are now.

2018 vs. 2019

 

[auror]

I don’t have a vivid memory of the 2018 OOC, but I have the opposite feeling. We’ve had one less power conference game, but last year every other team was ranked > 220. Would be interesting to see how we did against the spread year over year. Gone is the offensive benefit of Jalen Adams being able to control a game. Completely different this year with some of our best offensive options being freshman.

If you told showed me the future OOC stats for AG and CV over the summer I’d have predicted we were in much worse shape than we are now.

2018 vs. 2019
View attachment 49523

The way I use is looking at the change in our KenPom rank on a game by game basis. That essentially shows how we're performing relative to the "KenPom spread" expectation, which factors in opponent strength and our team's at the time perceived strength. For the cupcakes...

2019
(positive is ranking climb, negative is fall)
Sacred Heart: +2
St. Joe's: -14
Buffalo: +6
Maine: 0
Iona: +2
St. Peter's -5
UNH: +4
NJIT: +1

Mean: -0.5, Median: +1.5
So generally we performed pretty well against the cupcakes, but had 2 big stinkers which skewed the overall impact negative.

2018
(positive is ranking climb, negative is fall)
Morehead St.: -5
UMKC: +10
Cornell: +2
UNH: +1
UMass Lowell: +1
Lafayette: +8
Manhattan: -7
Drexel: +9

Mean: +2.4, Median: +1.5

So identical median, both 2 negative games, but last year had higher highs of rank change. The only thing to keep in consideration is that it is harder to raise ranks as you increase your rank, so the +10 from 102 to 92 for example might not be as impressive as the +6 from 60 to 54.

 

[wheelerdog]

We need two road wins this week. That will set us up for the remainder of the season. Otherwise it will be a total scramble.

 

[Ts5034]

The way I use is looking at the change in our KenPom rank on a game by game basis. That essentially shows how we're performing relative to the "KenPom spread" expectation, which factors in opponent strength and our team's at the time perceived strength. For the cupcakes...

2019
(positive is ranking climb, negative is fall)
Sacred Heart: +2
St. Joe's: -14
Buffalo: +6
Maine: 0
Iona: +2
St. Peter's -5
UNH: +4
NJIT: +1

Mean: -0.5, Median: +1.5
So generally we performed pretty well against the cupcakes, but had 2 big stinkers which skewed the overall impact negative.

2018
(positive is ranking climb, negative is fall)
Morehead St.: -5
UMKC: +10
Cornell: +2
UNH: +1
UMass Lowell: +1
Lafayette: +8
Manhattan: -7
Drexel: +9

Mean: +2.4, Median: +1.5

So identical median, both 2 negative games, but last year had higher highs of rank change. The only thing to keep in consideration is that it is harder to raise ranks as you increase your rank, so the +10 from 102 to 92 for example might not be as impressive as the +6 from 60 to 54.

The fact there has not been any blow outs this year compared to last year is a huge step forward in my opinion. We could have won every game we played up to this point. The Iowa and Villanova games from last year got ugly, and even though we showed improvement, we still could not compete with the big boys.

 

[jkfer98]

Feels like if we're going to perform well in-conference we're going to need to win a lot of "ugly games" (i.e. the Florida game). Just not sure who they're going to turn to for consistent offense.

 

[buddy]

Feels like if we're going to perform well in-conference we're going to need to win a lot of "ugly games" (i.e. the Florida game). Just not sure who they're going to turn to for consistent offense.

That has been a problem. You need a really reliable point guard that you can trust to stabilize the ship. I don't see it here yet.

 

[ucawn]

Would we be 12-0 with Kofi? I think so

 

[TheChamps990411]

This season goes as CV and AG go. If they dont turn the ball over and score efficiently this team will be better and will have a chance at the tourney.

 

[Excalibur]

This season goes as CV and AG go. If they dont turn the ball over and score efficiently this team will be better and will have a chance at the tourney.

We will need more than that. Somebody needs to become a “reliable scorer”; i.e someone who we can count on to get us a bucket in end of game situations or to stop runs.

 

[UconnU]

Feeling cautiously optimistic about tomorrow.

 

[RayRay]

We will need more than that. Somebody needs to become a “reliable scorer”; i.e someone who we can count on to get us a bucket in end of game situations or to stop runs.

I keep seeing people write this. We have the answer in JB. We already saw it in the Xavier game down by 2 with 30 seconds left and he got the ball at the top of the key and took it to the basket and scored. That was his literally his 2nd game of the season. We need to go back to that now that we start conference play. Hurley knows it, just gotta instil in the young man that he is the alpha on this team and that he cant be afraid to take over, even as the freshman. Hurley even says in every post game lately that JB is the only one with the long leash to be creative with the ball and put the ball on the floor and make something happen.

 

[BuffaloHusky]

The next step in building the program back to prominance is winning on the road. Going .500 on the road would be a dramatic improvement and put us realistically in the NCAA hunt. That means finally winning in Tulsa as well as a Texas game or two and taking care of business versus the teams we are supposed to beat.

 

[Excalibur]

I keep seeing people write this. We have the answer in JB. We already saw it in the Xavier game down by 2 with 30 seconds left and he got the ball at the top of the key and took it to the basket and scored. That was his literally his 2nd game of the season. We need to go back to that now that we start conference play. Hurley knows it, just gotta instil in the young man that he is the alpha on this team and that he cant be afraid to take over, even as the freshman. Hurley even says in every post game lately that JB is the only one with the long leash to be creative with the ball and put the ball on the floor and make something happen.

The potential is clearly there, but he hasn’t shown that he can do it consistently enough.

 

[weyuo]

Bouknight is not going to carry this team to the Big Dance. Vital and Gilbert need to be the best guard tandem in the AAC not just on defense but offensively. Carlton needs to be more than a ghost around the paint. Akok will have good games and will have games where he's in foul trouble and will hardly play. Adams, Polley and Whalley can help this team go from a first-round bye in the conference tourney to a top 5 seed in the NCAA's. I think by March this team can be good enough to finish in the top four in the AAC.

 

[RayRay]

The potential is clearly there, but he hasn’t shown that he can do it consistently enough.

I agree, but you can tell that is what Hurley is trying to develop NOW, and not for next season. I just think by sometime during conference play, it will be there. He has that killer mentality as we saw in Charleston, he just took a couple steps back for some reason lately (freshman). I'm confident Hurley will help him figure it out. My prediction is he is our leading scorer the rest of the way out, not counting the first 12 games.

 

[HuskylnSC]

Tonight I expect to see a drastic change in Hurley. We are now in the more important portion of the schedule and the ability to let players play through issues is past. While I still expect to see 9 players in rotation, the distribution of minutes will change drastically. We should see more quick hooks than during the OOC schedule. The opportunity to see if Bouk or Gaff can figure something out is now gone. If either gets into a game and appears lost, they will be out as soon as a tired player has been refreshed. If Carlton gets slow and sluggish and Whalley brings energy, Carlton will sit more. If CV or Al go back to old (I hope old) habits, they will get pulled, and have some constructive criticism. IF Polley does not demonstrate his new found aggression, find someone who will. Now is the time for the coach to assert himself as more dictatorial and less of an encourager. It's time to win.