End of the regular season assessment

[DefenseBB]

With the P4 season now over and we wait for the Conference tournaments, I have to say it has been an interesting journey with a few good surprises and some anticipated pitfalls.
The TOP 3 unquestioned
UConn going undefeated was sort of expected after those early games. Still an unbelievable accomplishment especially the way we won most of them.
UCLA has actually stayed strong throughout the year but I am still not sure if that is because they are that good or the Big 10 is not as good as many people think.
SC has shown itself to integrate new players into the system and still dominate the SEC
The next 3
Texas is still elite defensively but was shown to have troubles offensively against top flight teams
Vandy has been the Cinderella story and very impressive. I wasn't a believer for a long time but now, I am a convert. Blakes is an absolute POY candidate, Galvin should be the SEC FOY (and she wasn't even ranked in the HoopGurlz top 100!). Shea should be SEC COY and possibly the NCOY. This team is more than the sum of their parts. Congrats
LSU is still a very formidable opponent. Their OOC brought skepticism when they lost early in SEC play but this team has shown resiliency. Depending on their seeding, they could make it to the Final Four.
Then the rest
By and large the top 6 are way ahead of the remaining schools and I don't see anyone outside of these 6 making it to the Final 4.

Duke struggled early but then hit a major winning streak and looking like we expected. Their ceiling would be an Elite 8 game once again but now they will have a target on their back.
TCU is basically the land of "free agents" but Campbell has done well. I am not sure they can get past a Sweet 16 game.
Oklahoma had a great season but with the core returning and adding a top freshman, I thought of expected more-fair or unfair. I think this team tops out at an Elite 8 level.
Michigan looked really good early, but had a few slip ups near the end of the Big Ten season before righting themselves against Maryland. Their lack of size inside will hurt them against the top 4 and their guard play we need to match LSU or Vandy if in those regions. Elite 8 best.
Iowa is much approved over the full season with Ava Heiden now being the next "big" on their long list of front-court successes. Jan has truly done a remarkable job but against the top 6 teams means a ceiling of an Elite 8.
As for the rest:
There are some really nice teams who had good or great moments in 2025-26 but not sure how many can achieve true success in the NCAAT given the pecking order I have listed. Yes, on any given day, something can happen but in WCBB most tournaments follow the chalk.

Thoughts?

 

[cancontent]

With the P4 season now over and we wait for the Conference tournaments, I have to say it has been an interesting journey with a few good surprises and some anticipated pitfalls.
The TOP 3 unquestioned
UConn going undefeated was sort of expected after those early games. Still an unbelievable accomplishment especially the way we won most of them.
UCLA has actually stayed strong throughout the year but I am still not sure if that is because they are that good or the Big 10 is not as good as many people think.
SC has shown itself to integrate new players into the system and still dominate the SEC
The next 3
Texas is still elite defensively but was shown to have troubles offensively against top flight teams
Vandy has been the Cinderella story and very impressive. I wasn't a believer for a long time but now, I am a convert. Blakes is an absolute POY candidate, Galvin should be the SEC FOY (and she wasn't even ranked in the HoopGurlz top 100!). Shea should be SEC COY and possibly the NCOY. This team is more than the sum of their parts. Congrats
LSU is still a very formidable opponent. Their OOC brought skepticism when they lost early in SEC play but this team has shown resiliency. Depending on their seeding, they could make it to the Final Four.
Then the rest
By and large the top 6 are way ahead of the remaining schools and I don't see anyone outside of these 6 making it to the Final 4.

Duke struggled early but then hit a major winning streak and looking like we expected. Their ceiling would be an Elite 8 game once again but now they will have a target on their back.
TCU is basically the land of "free agents" but Campbell has done well. I am not sure they can get past a Sweet 16 game.
Oklahoma had a great season but with the core returning and adding a top freshman, I thought of expected more-fair or unfair. I think this team tops out at an Elite 8 level.
Michigan looked really good early, but had a few slip ups near the end of the Big Ten season before righting themselves against Maryland. Their lack of size inside will hurt them against the top 4 and their guard play we need to match LSU or Vandy if in those regions. Elite 8 best.
Iowa is much approved over the full season with Ava Heiden now being the next "big" on their long list of front-court successes. Jan has truly done a remarkable job but against the top 6 teams means a ceiling of an Elite 8.
As for the rest:
There are some really nice teams who had good or great moments in 2025-26 but not sure how many can achieve true success in the NCAAT given the pecking order I have listed. Yes, on any given day, something can happen but in WCBB most tournaments follow the chalk.

Thoughts?

Think there are several more players on Iowa's roster that deserve credit for getting Iowa get to where they are this season.

Incoming transfer Wright has fit in with this team and style of play very nicely and will be part of the roster for a few more seasons. Along with Stremlow, Levin who are also sophomores and Deal as a freshman Iowa has a solid core of guards that will continue to get better for a few more years.

Houston has been pretty solid as a freshman forward and Hays showed some flashes earlier this season. Along with Heiden, Jensen will have a good front court with Stuelke graduating this year.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Excellent analysis @DefenseBB and I pretty much agree.

The only thing is there is a bit of an undertone that somehow an Elite 8 ceiling isn't actually really great.

Where we agree is that the top 2 seeds should produce the Final 4 - with 3 of the top 4 teams looking really difficult to defeat (I'm in on UCLA - don't like them, but I think they really are all that). But only UConn is undefeated. It will take a lot of luck and great play to top any of them (UConn, UCLA or SC).

But Elite 8 or even Sweet 16 is actually really, really good. Put another way - as to Elite 8 - one of the 8 best teams out of 350. It is missing the tourney or going out against a lower seed that are real disappointments, at least from my viewpoint.

 

[DefenseBB]

Excellent analysis @DefenseBB and I pretty much agree.

The only thing is there is a bit of an undertone that somehow an Elite 8 ceiling isn't actually really great.

Where we agree is that the top 2 seeds should produce the Final 4 - with 3 of the top 4 teams looking really difficult to defeat (I'm in on UCLA - don't like them, but I think they really are all that). But only UConn is undefeated. It will take a lot of luck and great play to top any of them (UConn, UCLA or SC).

But Elite 8 or even Sweet 16 is actually really, really good. Put another way - as to Elite 8 - one of the 8 best teams out of 350. It is missing the tourney or going out against a lower seed that are real disappointments, at least from my viewpoint.

Elite 8 is an unbelievable goal/achievement but I just think there are only 10 teams who could really garner those 8 spots and only 6 teams with a Chance for the Final Four which depends almost entirely not being paired with UConn, UCLA or SC. Some
Of the SEC schools might have a familiarity edge but I would not bet against Dawn in any game of SC vs LSU/Texas/Vandy who are the only serious threats for a final four spot.
The likes of Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan, Iowa or TCU will be beat by any of these 6 teams. I just don’t see many 2 or 3 seeds being able to put together enough. And forget about any of the 4 seeds, as I am not sure more than 1 will reach the Sweet 16. That 3-7 region seeding is razor thin (the 13-28 ranked teams).
While there is significantly more depth in the women’s game, the elite coaches still maintain their dominance.