End Of Game Scoring Math

[Chin Diesel]

Color analyst brought up kicking XP vice going for two after UConn TD.

Math is the TD put UConn up by 4. Fresno needs a TD to win. An FG is useless. UConn kicking XP makes it a 5 point game. TD still wins.

Going for 2 and making it makes it a 6 point. Now you need TD and XP for the win. Makes it a bit more dicey for opponent.

So, what is consensus? Up by 4 late in game, do you kick XP or go for 2?

 

[RedStickHusky]

In the game chat, I argued that the 1 pointer was meaningless. I saw someone else post the very good point that it meant UConn could still win with a field goal if Fresno went up 21-19.... That,s playing chess two moves ahead kind of stuff.

 

[joelerg87]

In the game chat, I argued that the 1 pointer was meaningless. I saw someone else post the very good point that it meant UConn could still win with a field goal if Fresno went up 21-19.... That,s playing chess two moves ahead kind of stuff.

Fresno would go for 2 in that case.

I’d prefer Mora go for 2 but was to excited we took the lead to care in the moment.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Color analyst brought up kicking XP vice going for two after UConn TD.

Math is the TD put UConn up by 4. Fresno needs a TD to win. An FG is useless. UConn kicking XP makes it a 5 point game. TD still wins.

Going for 2 and making it makes it a 6 point. Now you need TD and XP for the win. Makes it a bit more dicey for opponent.

So, what is consensus? Up by 4 late in game, do you kick XP or go for 2?

Think about this. Fresno state take the kickoff back for a touchdown with 2:00 left. Game is 21-19 vs. 21-18

You guys are assuming that Fresno drives to win the game with no time left. To me, give Fresno 7-points, then you get ball back and can still win with a FG.

 

[Bomber36]

With the amount of time left, I don’t think it really mattered. FSU got the ball back with 2:20 left on the clock. If they had managed a drive for a TD, UConn would have had very little time to do anything.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Good job by Mora and team gaming this out btw.

Assume a Fresno TD. Now UConn is down 1 or down 3 (Fresno assuredly goes for 2).

What is more likely? Fresno scores a TD plus x tra or UConn blocks an x trapoint to force OT? I would say TD plus 1 More likely. Then, up 1, Fresno goes for 2. Then u can still tie with a FG as worst case.

Kicking the 1-pointer gives you a minuscule chance on the back end if disaster strikes. The most damage Fresno can do is an 8-point possession, and if they did that you still can kick a FG to tie.

That still leaves you with a FG to tie.

 

[Blades]

In the game chat, I argued that the 1 pointer was meaningless. I saw someone else post the very good point that it meant UConn could still win with a field goal if Fresno went up 21-19.... That,s playing chess two moves ahead kind of stuff.

True and in a worse case scenario that almost happened. If the Fresno QB hits his open WR in stride, but overthrew him at the Uconn 30. That long pass was on 2nd down of their last drive.. A TD on that pass would've given Uconn the ball back, with a bout 1:30 or so to win on a FG. So bad things do happen and the math in that case certainly made it the right call.

 

[tjhusky]

Either XP ( 1 or 2 pt) could be run back by the defense for 2 point on a blocked kick or fumble/interception. Our lead would be 2.

After that we kickoff to Fresno who only would need a field goal to win.

Going for two would have slight risk for no reward.

 

[Kemba Time]

The advantages of going up 20–14 over 19-14 are:

1. Fresno St. needs an extra point after a TD instead of just a TD with no conversion to win.

2. Two field goals by the opponent tied the game instead of beating you (There was not enough time for this one to matter in our scenario leaving No. 1 — and making the conversion charts you can quickly Google not a fit here)

The advantages of being ahead 19-14 instead of 18-14:

1. Should Fresno State score a TD with time left, they either kick an extra point to go up 21-19 (unlikely) or have to get a 2-point conversion to go up 22-19.

If they kick or fail to get the 2 points, you can win the game outright with a field goal and if they do, you can still tie with an FG. Instead of an extra point to make it 21-18 or having the option to take the FG out of play completely with a two-point conversation to make it 22-18

So on a basic level, which is more likely to come into play?

Fresno scores a TD and misses an extra point, something kickers at this level hit 95-99% of the time.
Or
Fresno makes a big play for a TD, and you only have to get to the 40 or so to kick a field goal.

I’m not sure the exact odds here, but I’d guess it’s much higher than of a missed extra point.

So you get to this: The odds of making a two-point conversion are just under 50%, I believe about 48% so we are talking about a slightly loaded coin flip in favor of not. But this isn’t as simple as calling heads or tails, the best offenses have a 55-60% chance and the worst have about a 40-45% chance.

Given what we know about the two offenses on the field in our scenario, let’s say each had about a 45% chance.

By kicking the extra point, what you’ve essentially done is something your kicker will do almost automatically and flipped it to Fresno needed to do something they will do less than half the time, at the expense of the very small odds their kicker would come down and miss an extra point at 20-20.

It’s a small trade off and this is a situation where there isn’t a huge payoff either way, but it improves your odds in the most likely way to come into play to make it worthwhile.

 

[Chin Diesel]

The advantages of going up 20–14 over 19-14 are:

1. Fresno St. needs an extra point after a TD instead of just a TD with no conversion to win.

2. Two field goals by the opponent tied the game instead of beating you (There was not enough time for this one to matter in our scenario leaving No. 1 — and making the conversion charts you can quickly Google not a fit here)

The advantages of being ahead 19-14 instead of 18-14:

1. Should Fresno State score a TD with time left, they either kick an extra point to go up 21-19 (unlikely) or have to get a 2-point conversion to go up 22-19. If they kick or fail to get it, you can win the game with a field goal and if they do, you can still tie with an FG.

So on a basic level, which is more likely to come into play?

Fresno scores a TD and misses an extra point, something kickers at this level hit 95-99% of the time.
Or
Fresno makes a big play for a TD, and you only have to get to the 40 or so to kick a field goal.

I’m not sure the exact odds here, but I’d guess it’s much higher than of a missed extra point.

So you get to this: The odds of making a two-point conversion are just under 50%, I believe about 48% so we are talking about a slightly loaded coin flip in favor of not. But this isn’t as simple as calling heads or tails, the best offenses have a 55-60% chance and the worst have about a 40-45% chance.

Given what we know about the two offenses on the field in our scenario, let’s say each had about a 45% chance.

By kicking the extra point, what you’ve essentially done is something your kicker will do almost automatically and flipped it to Fresno needed to do something they will do less than half the time, at the expense of the very small odds their kicker would come down and miss an extra point at 20-20.

It’s a small trade off and this is a situation where there isn’t a huge payoff either way, but it improves your odds in the most likely way to come into play to make it worth it.

I just put a comment on the announcer thread where you were discussing this.

I'll say the same thing here. You laid the secondary downstream effects comparing 20-14, 19-14 and 18-14 and how each one fares compared to what Fresno St would do. For me, I think early in the game, I go for one. I'm a huge proponent of putting points on the board and let opponents chase your score. Late in game, say less than 5 minutes to go when there are fewer possessions remaining, I think I lean towards going for 2.

Overall, I think this is the one score differential where a coach really has to have a feel for the game flow up to that point and this is more the art of coaching than it is science/math.

 

[Kemba Time]

I just put a comment on the announcer thread where you were discussing this.

I'll say the same thing here. You laid the secondary downstream effects comparing 20-14, 19-14 and 18-14 and how each one fares compared to what Fresno St would do. For me, I think early in the game, I go for one. I'm a huge proponent of putting points on the board and let opponents chase your score. Late in game, say less than 5 minutes to go when there are fewer possessions remaining, I think I lean towards going for 2.

Overall, I think this is the one score differential where a coach really has to have a feel for the game flow up to that point and this is more the art of coaching than it is science/math.

The most important thing to everything I’m saying is we are talking about something that comes down to very little overall win probability impact and both sides are reasonably defensible. Which was the point of my original announcer thread annoyance at them basically saying ‘We know more than the coach does, gotta go for 2’ and moving on instead of looking at any further reasoning.

I personally would lean toward the math I laid out and putting the least pressure on my true freshman quarterback and relatively new to close-and-late pressure offense as I can. Taking a way needed to convert what is essentially 4th-down and 3, leaving the option of a field goal to win in play as long as possible and trusting my defense to stop Fresno on a short yardage two-point conversion as they have all day even if someone gives up a fluky big-play TD.

But you could argue both sides of the art of coaching all day, does not getting a two-point conversion give Fresno some momentum back, does it let the seed of doubt creep in for a team that hasn’t felt winning a close game in a long long time? Or does getting the two maybe feel like an exclamation point for a team with budding confidence there?

Would certainly be interesting to hear Mora’s thoughts on why made his decision.

 

[Platt81]

The advantages of going up 20–14 over 19-14 are:

1. Fresno St. needs an extra point after a TD instead of just a TD with no conversion to win.

2. Two field goals by the opponent tied the game instead of beating you (There was not enough time for this one to matter in our scenario leaving No. 1 — and making the conversion charts you can quickly Google not a fit here)

The advantages of being ahead 19-14 instead of 18-14:

1. Should Fresno State score a TD with time left, they either kick an extra point to go up 21-19 (unlikely) or have to get a 2-point conversion to go up 22-19.

If they kick or fail to get the 2 points, you can win the game outright with a field goal and if they do, you can still tie with an FG. Instead of an extra point to make it 21-18 or having the option to take the FG out of play completely with a two-point conversation to make it 22-18

So on a basic level, which is more likely to come into play?

Fresno scores a TD and misses an extra point, something kickers at this level hit 95-99% of the time.
Or
Fresno makes a big play for a TD, and you only have to get to the 40 or so to kick a field goal.

I’m not sure the exact odds here, but I’d guess it’s much higher than of a missed extra point.

So you get to this: The odds of making a two-point conversion are just under 50%, I believe about 48% so we are talking about a slightly loaded coin flip in favor of not. But this isn’t as simple as calling heads or tails, the best offenses have a 55-60% chance and the worst have about a 40-45% chance.

Given what we know about the two offenses on the field in our scenario, let’s say each had about a 45% chance.

By kicking the extra point, what you’ve essentially done is something your kicker will do almost automatically and flipped it to Fresno needed to do something they will do less than half the time, at the expense of the very small odds their kicker would come down and miss an extra point at 20-20.

It’s a small trade off and this is a situation where there isn’t a huge payoff either way, but it improves your odds in the most likely way to come into play to make it worthwhile.

I think the biggest thing for this argument of “Fresno would have to kick the extra point to win” is based off an assumption they score with no time left, any situation other than that of course they’re kicking the extra point. Also just kicking the extra point is also sending a subliminal (or maybe verbal not being in the huddle) that you have confidence in your D to make the stop and win the game, those boys were already playing fired up but getting that vote of confidence from your coach is even bigger.

 

[geordi]

If I'm Mora, I'm thinking this is a trust, confidence moment. You say to your defense, 'you've beaten their butt all game. You've been better in the second half than in the first. I totally trust you to stop them and win this game for us..' It appears this team is going to go as far as the defense can take them.

That being said, I'd have gone for 2.

 

[RioDog]

All the Fischer/Spassky analysis aside, the kicker was money; the first 2 pt conversion was not. As geordi noted the D was stout. Take the point and the MO-

 

[freescooter]

I think you need to have more information than just the score. As long as the Other guy needs a td under any circumstances, with the clock running down I take the point. Make them go the length of the field, something they haven’t done all day, with the clock on your side. And you need to be aware of your guys abilities too. Our offense isn’t exactly automatic. Our kicker is pretty close. In a 2 point game, maybe you go for 2 to force them to have to score the td. But in this situation, a touchdown beats you most likely.

 

[McLovin]

Failed 2PT 18-14 -> 18-20 or 18-21 or 18-22
Successful PAT 19-14 -> 19-20 or 19-22
Successful 2PT 20-14 -> 20-20 or 20-21

There has to be a sheet out there that breaks down winning percentage by each score differential with under 2:00. But my guess is that coach as just playing his gut.

 

[Alum86]

You go for 2 with that much time left. That was about the only thing those announcers were right about the whole game.

 

[superjohn]

Everyone in the chat was making it out like Mora had no clue what he was doing kicking the extra point.

He knows what he's doing.

 

[HuskyAlum012]

Either XP ( 1 or 2 pt) could be run back by the defense for 2 point on a blocked kick or fumble/interception. Our lead would be 2.

After that we kickoff to Fresno who only would need a field goal to win.

Going for two would have slight risk for no reward.

This was exactly my thought process after I thought about it for a little bit. With how the defense was playing, I think it was the right move to go for the PAT attempt rather than risk an INT or fumble recovery for 2 point conversion for Fresno, then them only needing a FG rather than a TD to win. 100% in agreement with Coach Mora on this one.

 

[uconnfan68]

Color analyst brought up kicking XP vice going for two after UConn TD.

Math is the TD put UConn up by 4. Fresno needs a TD to win. An FG is useless. UConn kicking XP makes it a 5 point game. TD still wins.

Going for 2 and making it makes it a 6 point. Now you need TD and XP for the win. Makes it a bit more dicey for opponent.

So, what is consensus? Up by 4 late in game, do you kick XP or go for 2?

If we had a 2yd GUARANTEE play, yeah, go for it. We haven't had that in over a decade.

 

[AzHusky]

We tried for 2 when we made it 14 to 12 and failed badly. I had no problem with them kicking the PAT.

 

[Kolumbo]

Went for the extra pernt to go up by 5 and now Fresno is busy doing all the math and trying to think what was UCONN's angle here. Now they're thinking we can get a field goal and then win the game on a field goal if we get the ball back. Or maybe they're thinking if we get a touchdown, now we gotta go for 2 in case UCONN gets the ball back and gets a field goal to tie. Turns out Fresno was so obsessed with the math that it didn't score at all.

Mora is a genius!

 

[Get a Job]

Went for the extra pernt to go up by 5 and now Fresno is busy doing all the math and trying to think what was UCONN's angle here. Now they're thinking we can get a field goal and then win the game on a field goal if we get the ball back. Or maybe they're thinking if we get a touchdown, now we gotta go for 2 in case UCONN gets the ball back and gets a field goal to tie. Turns out Fresno was so obsessed with the math that it didn't score at all.

Mora is a genius!