Early Resume Metrics

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 7
KenPom: 6
BPI: 9
Strength of Schedule: 38

Q1: 3-1
Q2: 1-0
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 3-0

Road/Neutral: 3-0

 

[uconngb]

NET: 7
KenPom: 6
BPI: 9
Strength of Schedule: 38

Q1: 3-1
Q2: 1-0
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 3-0

Road/Neutral: 3-0

This goes to show how meaningless these rankings are so early in the season.....SOS is 38? I'd like to see the 37 ahead of us.

 

[auror]

This goes to show how meaningless these rankings are so early in the season.....SOS is 38? I'd like to see the 37 ahead of us.

They're mostly low majors that play insane schedules for money. They're legitimately better schedules, they just don't win any of the games.

 

[Travelman6]

This goes to show how meaningless these rankings are so early in the season.....SOS is 38? I'd like to see the 37 ahead of us.

I don't think anyone has a better OOC than Illinois, Arizona, Kansas, BYU, as is, even if that was it...never mind Florida and Texas coming up.

 

[Austin316]

NET: 7
KenPom: 6
BPI: 9
Strength of Schedule: 38

Q1: 3-1
Q2: 1-0
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 3-0

Road/Neutral: 3-0

Is this SoS only for games played to date or the entire schedule?

 

[AllHusky]

Was going to start a thread about schedules in general, but it fits in here. Is there a memo that went around the top hoops teams that said you must schedule a crucible or gauntlet of brutal games before Jan 1? Do you remember the John Thompson pre conference schedules? The amount of cupcake he had made Hostess blush! Seemed like 20 years ago, everyone liked to have 1 or 2 tough pre-conference games, maybe a couple more if you had a good tournament. Am I misremembering?

 

[BFieldHusky]

Is this SoS only for games played to date or the entire schedule?

To date.

 

[upstater]

NET: 7
KenPom: 6
BPI: 9
Strength of Schedule: 38

Q1: 3-1
Q2: 1-0
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 3-0

Road/Neutral: 3-0

I'm going to ignore Strength of Schedule assessments going forward.

I don't think there are 38 teams that have had harder contests than BYU, Arizona, Illinois and AT Kansas.

Several teams have had schedules that are just as tough, so anywhere from 5-10 works.

And yes I know SOS is a statistical analysis, not an assessment, but I hate getting dinged for playing New Haven and Arizona while other teams get credit for playing Praire View and SMU.

 

[auror]

9th in Torvik WAB. 2nd among teams with a loss.

 

[auror]

I'm going to ignore Strength of Schedule assessments going forward.

I don't think there are 38 teams that have had harder contests than BYU, Arizona, Illinois and AT Kansas.

Several teams have had schedules that are just as tough, so anywhere from 5-10 works.

And yes I know SOS is a statistical analysis, not an assessment, but I hate getting dinged for playing New Haven and Arizona while other teams get credit for playing Praire View and SMU.

Well Oakland has played at Purdue, at Michigan, and at Houston. A lot of low majors have similar schedules.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Was going to start a thread about schedules in general, but it fits in here. Is there a memo that went around the top hoops teams that said you must schedule a crucible or gauntlet of brutal games before Jan 1? Do you remember the John Thompson pre conference schedules? The amount of cupcake he had made Hostess blush! Seemed like 20 years ago, everyone liked to have 1 or 2 tough pre-conference games, maybe a couple more if you had a good tournament. Am I misremembering?

I was wondering about that too. Seems like this year more than ever we are spoiled as CBB fans with the non-con gauntlet among the top 25. It almost feels like every top 25 team has played each other. Or has played against someone who has played the other top teams. Like a 6 degrees of separation.

Is the change due to metrics? I’m usually not a bit metrics follower but you keep hearing how you don’t “get punished” for losing to great teams. Gary Parrish said something to that extent on his latest podcast episode with Norlander when talking about Illinois.

Or is the change socio-economic? More big games means more money whether at the Players Era tournament or home-and-homes or major venues like MSG/Boston/Chicago? Also feels like there’s a big push from the top coaches to hold these marquee games early in the season to challenge the public notion that CBB doesn’t matter til March.

 

[Excalibur]

This goes to show how meaningless these rankings are so early in the season.....SOS is 38? I'd like to see the 37 ahead of us.

3 games against 300+ teams offset it a bit. That impact will be less as we get more games in.

 

[bendm]

We're sitting on the 2 seed line so we need to beat UF and UT and not have any bad losses in the BE which means...never losing? Maybe away to SJU but that's still at MSG so i consider it neutral.

Duke beating UF last night was really big for them unfortunately. They have better metrics than us (2 NET, 3 KP, 1 BPI) and should similarly plow through the ACC. They have pole position for the 1 seed in the East.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I would say we are behind Michigan, Purdue, Arizona, Duke and Iowa State. None of them have a loss.

 

[businesslawyer]

I don't think anyone has a better OOC than Illinois, Arizona, Kansas, BYU, as is, even if that was it...never mind Florida and Texas coming up.

Yeah, but in computing SOS it’s not as much about how good your tough games are but how easy your easy games are. We would be doing ourselves a favor if we would keep our cupcakes in the 150-200 range rather than playing all the teams above 250 that we always seem to end up with.

We really, really, really need to sweep Florida and Texas before heading into conference play, because it’s going to take an unbelievable winning percentage in conference to not be losing ground to the best teams in the P-4 who will have much tougher average opponents than we will.

 

[businesslawyer]

I was wondering about that too. Seems like this year more than ever we are spoiled as CBB fans with the non-con gauntlet among the top 25. It almost feels like every top 25 team has played each other. Or has played against someone who has played the other top teams. Like a 6 degrees of separation.

Is the change due to metrics? I’m usually not a bit metrics follower but you keep hearing how you don’t “get punished” for losing to great teams. Gary Parrish said something to that extent on his latest podcast episode with Norlander when talking about Illinois.

Or is the change socio-economic? More big games means more money whether at the Players Era tournament or home-and-homes or major venues like MSG/Boston/Chicago? Also feels like there’s a big push from the top coaches to hold these marquee games early in the season to challenge the public notion that CBB doesn’t matter til March.

The obvious answer is it’s both. With payments to players schools are desperately trying to increase revenues and they know that the NCAA Tournament Committee pays more and more attention to various metrics every year

 

[LetsGoUC]

We are gunning for a 1 seed.

 

[Kenny11]

Was going to start a thread about schedules in general, but it fits in here. Is there a memo that went around the top hoops teams that said you must schedule a crucible or gauntlet of brutal games before Jan 1? Do you remember the John Thompson pre conference schedules? The amount of cupcake he had made Hostess blush! Seemed like 20 years ago, everyone liked to have 1 or 2 tough pre-conference games, maybe a couple more if you had a good tournament. Am I misremembering?

The good players are all making at least half a million per year. It’s professional sports now and playing a bunch of overmatched teams with kids making no money doesn’t make sense.

 

[NewBlood]

I would say we are behind Michigan, Purdue, Arizona, Duke and Iowa State. None of them have a loss.

Well outside of Duke, there will be some eating of their own in that group, Michigan and Purdue, AZ and Iowa State, not to mention the depth in those conferences. This is why beating Florida (preferably by double digits) and Texas is so key.

If you get to 10-1 to conference play, you can afford a loss to StJ as long as you win the BE Regular Season Title to be in heavy consideration for a #1 seed.

My prediction for the top 4 seeds?
Purdue (all of their tough conference games are at home, except for Indiana)
Duke (a L to Florida would have been great for us, two games vs Louisville, one game vs Michigan in February)
UCONN
Gonzaga (I don't see a loss if they get past Kentucky in Lexington)

Our schedule vs Duke's is interesting. Common matchups:
Texas, Kansas, Florida, MSU (won't count)
They have Michigan and Arkansas
We have BYU and Arizona
The Huskies will really be pulling for a Duke split with Louisville and a UNC split at worst

It's going to be fun to watch over the year

 

[temery]

The good players are all making at least half a million per year. It’s professional sports now and playing a bunch of overmatched teams with kids making no money doesn’t make sense.

There is no "good player" making half $1 million a year. 1st round draft picks, maybe.

 

[uconngb]

3 games against 300+ teams offset it a bit. That impact will be less as we get more games in.

I obviously knew that but still…..

 

[Samoo]

We're sitting on the 2 seed line so we need to beat UF and UT and not have any bad losses in the BE which means...never losing? Maybe away to SJU but that's still at MSG so i consider it neutral.

Duke beating UF last night was really big for them unfortunately. They have better metrics than us (2 NET, 3 KP, 1 BPI) and should similarly plow through the ACC. They have pole position for the 1 seed in the East.

1 seed in the east? We don't need no stinkin' 1 seed in the east...

 

[temery]

We are gunning for a 1 seed.

Curse of death.

 

[RuffRuff]

3 games against 300+ teams offset it a bit. That impact will be less as we get more games in.

Nailed it - I can see playing 1-2 of those to start the season and get the legs warm, but after that, moving it up to 150-225 types. I don't know what the point of playing the atrocious teams is. Get a Yale on the calendar.

 

[Palatine]

Any top 4 seed will do. As long as we're playing well coming down the stretch....