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Here. We. Go.
Not going to lie, I was “rooting” for St. John’s last night as I wanted redemption, but now after UConn won last night, I am freakin’ pumped for a chance to dethrone the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Duck Fuke, let’s go. I’m psyched.
Collectively this season, it’s clear why Duke is considered one of the elite teams in the nation. With the sixth most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom, this is one of Duke’s strongest half-court offenses in a while as they’ve got a good team-oriented, ball-movement based versatile offense built around spacing, pace control and giving up a good shot to dish it to someone with a better option. Rather than having a true point guard, Duke is at its best when they can freely attack off the dribble to collapse defenses to kick out to open shooters in the perimeter or cutting rim attackers. In addition to their halfcourt comfort and execution, they’ve also got a strong collection of transition offense creators, getting scoring from that end more often from their excellent defensive rebounding rather than hunting for turnovers.
The defense is the second most efficient in the nation thanks to the foundation of their excellent individual athleticism and size, but it’s also a good system that is heavy on switching versatility to allow more aggressive on-ball pressure without leaving the remainder of the floor wide open. It’s a disciplined system that, like Michigan State, prefers to force ugly late-clock shots than prioritizing turnovers, but they’ve got their fair share of defensive playmakers. Easily, their biggest weakness on defense is that they give up a ton of perimeter looks (their 47.5 3PA/FGA ratio was the third highest in the ACC).
Despite their deserved praise, if you look closer at the team’s efficiency numbers of late, they’ve not been elite. In fact, in four of their last six games, the team’s defensive efficiency ratings have been average or worse, especially if you look at their recent Florida State, Virginia, Siena and St. John’s matchups.
From that note, I’m going to jump right into Cameron Boozer. He’s considered one of the best players in college basketball because he’s so damn versatile. Listed at 6’9 250 [I think he’s shorter than that] he can simplify his game to a straight power game, but his skill set is incredibly versatile: he’s Duke’s second best floor-spacer, he leads the team in assist rate, he’s efficient, he’s an excellent rebounder, he’s an elite pick and roll screener, great footwork all around and a good effort on defense. The reality is that both of Duke’s losses are when Boozer pops off, so containing him on offense is not the concern, what excites me about the matchup is what we’ve seen from Karaban the last two games: his ability to constantly move in the halfcourt renders the defensive versatility and effectiveness of Boozer to be neutralized quite a bit.
Part of Boozer’s effectiveness and versatility is how he can comfortably mix and match with Duke’s other forwards as overall, the defensive impact of Duke rests with their frontcourt.
Even though he is smaller, senior Maliq Brown starts at Duke’s de facto center and he’s the team’s defensive anchor. Hard not to love his style of play as he is a gritty, blue-collar defender who can truly switch all five positions and he is Duke’s best defensive playmaker, owning the second highest block rate and 286th highest steal rate in the nation while also owning excellent two-way rebounding rates. He’s good for about 17-26 minutes and while his defensive impact lies in his versatility, I’m curious how Duke matches up defensively when Boozer and Brown share the floor. They can switch on Reed and Karaban, but I like UConn’s matchup there.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Patrick Ngongba gets more minutes Sunday than Brown because he’s Duke’s only true low-post big that can physically match up with Reed. An elite shot-blocker with excellent two-way rebounding rates, Ngongba is probably Duke’s least switchable defender and he is prone to foul trouble. On the offensive end, Ngongba is an underrated low-post passer and he’s got some potential as a floor-spacer even though his strength is his soft touch under the rim. Just a rock-solid center who, like Brown, gets you about 18-24 minutes per game.
Quick note, Ngonba and Brown never share the floor together as that would ruin the team’s spacing.
My favorite all-around player on Duke is Isaiah Evans because he would fit wonderfully in UConn’s offensive system thanks to his high IQ, movement without the ball and super versatile shot-making. Evans has been on fire of late, averaging 17.2 points-per-game making 61% of his 2PAs and 40% of his threes. Evans' crafty footwork and ability to stay on-balance reminds me a bit of Mullins as Evans can put up a shot really quickly. Like Mullins, Evans is quite skinny, so he’s not really a threat to score iso off the dribble, but he needs to be shadowed off-ball all game. Personally, I’d prefer to put Demary on Evans whenever Foster is at point, because I think Ball can handle the size and lack of athleticism of Foster.
Now that Caleb Foster is back healthy after recovering with a lower-body injury, Duke’s tag-team point guard duo of Cayden Boozer and Caleb Foster definitely represent the team’s weak point on defense as both players rank in the bottom-two of the team’s defensive efficiency.
Foster is typically the starter, and even though Boozer started against St. John’s, I’d imagine Scheyer will go back to Foster as he is less flashy than lil’ Boozer, but is a much better floor-spacer (40% vs 29%) and his turnover rate is about 5% lower. Foster is the steadier guard: he’s unselfish, but can score at all three-levels. He’s also less athletic, but makes smart choices on defense.
On the flipside, Cayden Boozer’s strength is his ability to create offense off-the-dribble is his greatest strength. Once he’s got a full head of steam and going downhill, he’s a load to stop and he’s got nifty creativity and poise while penetrating [that’s what she said]. Even though Boozer is quite thickly built for a PG, he’s a surprisingly weak rebounder and he’s easily the team’s worst defender.
Starting at the 3 is freshman wing Dame Sarr, who, outside of Maliq Brown, is Duke’s other elite defensive playmaker, averaging 2.3 turnovers forced per 40. Even when Sarr is not causing turnovers, he is one of Duke’s most switchable defenders, easily moving between 1 through 4 thanks to his combination of length, footwork, quickness and athleticism. On the offensive end, Sarr rarely has the ball in his hands for very long, but he is a good team-oriented passer and can be streaky even though his shooting efficiency is inconsistent.
Speaking of streaky shooting, Duke freshman Nikolas Khamenia plays close to starter’s minutes off the bench switching between the 3 and the 4. When Khamenia plays the 4 alongside Boozer, the team has its best level of floor-spacing even though overall the team’s three-point shooting efficiency can be hot or cold (Cam Boozer, Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster are the only players with a 3P% higher than 33%). I think Khamenia has good long-term potential, but right now he’s a low-usage versatile combo-guard who can do a little bit of everything on offense while his length and BBIQ makes him an OK defender, he lacks strength and quickness to be an impact defender.
I respect the heck out of Duke, but based on their recent scares against Florida State, Virginia, Siena and St. John’s they are not peaking in March. If UConn wants to win, they need to rebound better than what they did against Michigan State (-9 rebounding ratio; Duke has top-9 rebounding rates on both ends of the floor), but I also love UConn’s off-ball movement as a major weapon to throw Duke off their defensive comfort level.
Let’s goooo!!!
