Drivers of recruiting: (a) competing and (b) winning

[pj]

On the Quinn Thompson thread someone mentioned an uptick in recruiting; elsewhere HuskyFanDan had an amusing comment on what drives recruits. I thought I'd compile some numbers and look for patterns.


Here's the fraction of 3* according to Rivals by year:

2002 1/14 7%
2003 5/20 25%
2004 1/28 4%
2005 6/25 24%
2006 3/21 14%
2007 6/29 21%
2008 3/22 14%
2009 4/21 19%
2010 9/20 45%
2011 8/16 50%
2012 9/23 39%
2013 5/9 56% (Andreas Knappe not in database)

The only really clear pattern is a significant uptick in recruiting with the 2010 class. We want from FCS type recruiting to bottom half of the BCS recruiting in that year.

Some milestones that must have impacted recruiting: In 2002 UConn became 1-A; in 2003 the Rent opened; in 2004 UConn entered the Big East; in 2006 the practice facility opened.

None of those events led to an immediate uptick in recruiting.

It looks to me like what produced the improvement that first appeared in the 2010 class was consistent winning. The record over the three prior years (2007, 2008, 2009) was 8-5, 8-5, and 9-4. That was the first time UConn had demonstrated an ability to compete and consistently win at the BCS level.

Recruits may not follow college football closely until they get into high school. So the three seasons before signing day may have the most influence over their perception of a program. I think you have to compete on a national stage, and win for 3 years, in order to qualify yourself to recruits.

Cumulative 3-year records prior to the recent classes:
2007: 17-18
2008: 18-18
2009: 21-17
2010: 25-14
2011: 24-15
2012: 21-17
There is a correlation.

Will there be another uptick in recruiting, to take us to the level of the upper half of BCS teams? To make it happen, the place to start is with a great season this year.

 

[Rumrunner]

With Shawn Boose, 3* percentage is 5/10 (if he's not a walk-on)

Of course if Ogundeko did not decommit, and perhaps his presence would have drawn in A. Edwards, and Khaliel Rodgers followed through with his very positive impression of UConn...what a class this would have been.

Success breeds success. Highly ranked recruits will follow other highly ranked recruits. For every kid that buys the line, " you can be the one that puts Uconn on the map", there's 99 kids that would rather hear " you're on the map if you sign with us"

UConn just needs to seal the deal.

 

[pj]

Shawn Boose is class of 2012 so that becomes 9/24.

I agree, top recruits draw top recruits, so you have to pass a threshold in attractiveness and then you can take a big jump. I think we have a chance to do that.

 

[Rumrunner]

For some reason I thought Boose was 2013, but being 2012 makes more sense re the comments in the U-T.

 

[SubbaBub]

This makes too much sense to be posted here.

I would expect the Playoff fallout to muddy the correlation for a bit.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

 

[businesslawyer]

On the Quinn Thompson thread someone mentioned an uptick in recruiting; elsewhere HuskyFanDan had an amusing comment on what drives recruits. I thought I'd compile some numbers and look for patterns.


Here's the fraction of 3* according to Rivals by year:

2002 1/14 7%
2003 5/20 25%
2004 1/28 4%
2005 6/25 24%
2006 3/21 14%
2007 6/29 21%
2008 3/22 14%
2009 4/21 19%
2010 9/20 45%
2011 8/16 50%
2012 9/23 39%
2013 5/9 56% (Andreas Knappe not in database)

The only really clear pattern is a significant uptick in recruiting with the 2010 class. We want from FCS type recruiting to bottom half of the BCS recruiting in that year.

Some milestones that must have impacted recruiting: In 2002 UConn became 1-A; in 2003 the Rent opened; in 2004 UConn entered the Big East; in 2006 the practice facility opened.

None of those events led to an immediate uptick in recruiting.

It looks to me like what produced the improvement that first appeared in the 2010 class was consistent winning. The record over the three prior years (2007, 2008, 2009) was 8-5, 8-5, and 9-4. That was the first time UConn had demonstrated an ability to compete and consistently win at the BCS level.

Recruits may not follow college football closely until they get into high school. So the three seasons before signing day may have the most influence over their perception of a program. I think you have to compete on a national stage, and win for 3 years, in order to qualify yourself to recruits.

Cumulative 3-year records prior to the recent classes:
2007: 17-18
2008: 18-18
2009: 21-17
2010: 25-14
2011: 24-15
2012: 21-17
There is a correlation.

Will there be another uptick in recruiting, to take us to the level of the upper half of BCS teams? To make it happen, the place to start is with a great season this year.

\\

Excellent post. Thanks for the work.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I found something about this very interesting.

In 2004 we had our worst recruiting year (according to Rivals) and yet 3 years later we are sharing a Big East Championship.

In 2006, we only had 3/21 three star kids (again, according to Rivals) and 4 years later we're in the Fiesta Bowl.

What this does for me is reinforces my belief that the gap between a 2 star and 4 star is a lot smaller than we think.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

Think only 5 or so from the 06 class made it to the fiesta, they would be a rs sr.
Lutrus, Wilson, Hurd and a couple of others

 

[Palatine]

The two most significant events in UConn recruiting were.

The de-commit of Aaron Hernandez. A 5-star who could have been used as a bell cow and would have had a sensational career.

Edsall leaving after the Fiesta Bowl. Removing the BCS Bowl as a major recruiting lure.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

The two most significant events in UConn recruiting were.

The de-commit of Aaron Hernandez. A 5-star who could have been used as a bell cow and would have had a sensational career.

Edsall leaving after the Fiesta Bowl. Removing the BCS Bowl as a major recruiting lure.

How can you leave out getting out of the trailers?

 

[Dann]

On the Quinn Thompson thread someone mentioned an uptick in recruiting; elsewhere HuskyFanDan had an amusing comment on what drives recruits. I thought I'd compile some numbers and look for patterns.


Here's the fraction of 3* according to Rivals by year:

2002 1/14 7%
2003 5/20 25%
2004 1/28 4%
2005 6/25 24%
2006 3/21 14%
2007 6/29 21%
2008 3/22 14%
2009 4/21 19%
2010 9/20 45%
2011 8/16 50%
2012 9/23 39%
2013 5/9 56% (Andreas Knappe not in database)

The only really clear pattern is a significant uptick in recruiting with the 2010 class. We want from FCS type recruiting to bottom half of the BCS recruiting in that year.

Some milestones that must have impacted recruiting: In 2002 UConn became 1-A; in 2003 the Rent opened; in 2004 UConn entered the Big East; in 2006 the practice facility opened.

None of those events led to an immediate uptick in recruiting.

It looks to me like what produced the improvement that first appeared in the 2010 class was consistent winning. The record over the three prior years (2007, 2008, 2009) was 8-5, 8-5, and 9-4. That was the first time UConn had demonstrated an ability to compete and consistently win at the BCS level.

Recruits may not follow college football closely until they get into high school. So the three seasons before signing day may have the most influence over their perception of a program. I think you have to compete on a national stage, and win for 3 years, in order to qualify yourself to recruits.

Cumulative 3-year records prior to the recent classes:
2007: 17-18
2008: 18-18
2009: 21-17
2010: 25-14
2011: 24-15
2012: 21-17
There is a correlation.

Will there be another uptick in recruiting, to take us to the level of the upper half of BCS teams? To make it happen, the place to start is with a great season this year.

very nice post pj, but can i play? are your * numbers just rivals? i think they are from a glance. anyway, the past 5 years things have changed on recruit sites. rivals is slowly on the decline, espn has gone from a joke to a ok site. scout has been coming back to life a bit and 247 has jumped right in the thick of it now. based off that i like to jusge classes thru multiple eyes. of course i also judge them by offers first off but star wise i look at it like this. what was the grade across the 4. did u get multiple stars or equal ratings or what. if you have multiple stars or ratings at a certain level, then i trust/think that the powers that be checked tape and info and rated you with the same thoughts in mind. having just one site doesn't do it for me because its a better chance that the kid was just given a rating, but if all 4 have him at that rating then so be it. do i make any sense?

any 4*-whitmer got 1, had more but he was changed to 3* the rest
multiple 3*- cochran, clax, whitmer, rugg, battles, sylva, myers, meli, hicks, samara
got one 3*- bock, williams, floyd, gutz, ellis, marder, green, vinci, cunn, norris

-we had 10 kids who were rated with multiple 3* across the sites.
-we had another 10 kids that one of the sites thought was a 3*.
-the touch of a 4* happens to be our juco qb, hmmm

so for the kids that only got 1 3* the question is, how did they get those ratings? maybe a grader from that site actually rated them instead of throwing stars on kids because there names were a bit more known on the trail then kids we have got in past years. possibly.

my point is, last year was a monster year for us bringing in a ton of new faces, and i think considering what went on the class was the best we have got star/website wise.

2010 class (247 doesn't have ratings going back for classes, just lists so this is over 3 sites)
any 4*-
multiple 3*- mckee, steg, opoku, small
got one 3*- kin, osi, alex, mcc, tjones, davis, paull, frank, louis, mack, st lou

-4 kids with multiple 3*
-11 kids with one 3*

could we asume that 247 ratings would be what rivals was for 2010? you get my drift on that?
then:
any 4*-
multiple 3*- mckee, steg, opoku, small, davis, frank, louis, mack, stlou, paull
got one 3*- kin, osi, alex, mcc, tjones

-10 kids got multiple 3*
-5 kids got a 3*

-2012 class is more deep
- i made a stretch but realistic somewhat assumption on 247, currently it seems 247 3* are fewer come by then rivals.

lets look at offers?

2010 (from all 4 sites)
alex- md, nm, ncst, uri, temple
brown- akron, bg, kst, pitt, toledo
cruz-
davis- , chat, elon, hampton, kst, jst, lam, ohio odu, wc, wk
frank- buff, cuse
hansson- cst, fiu, harv, ind, unh, troy
bjones-
tjones-
louis- cuse
mack- akron, gs, furman
mcbryde- bc, em
mccombs-
mccum-cuse
mckee- wisc, em, ni, bs, army
mueller-
opoku- temple
paull-
pruitt-
ruby- toledo
small- umass
st louis- cm, cst, ind, wm
steg- buff, wm

-10 total bcs offers this class got. of those 10 cuse was 3 of them(consider cuse in 2010) and ind is 2 of them(consider ind...). beating out pitt is a good win and wisc is a great win. only 1 player(alexander) had multiple bcs offers. umass was fcs back then and temple was mac.

2012 ( i had these in a old thread i just c/p, some of these offers i found in articles about commitments probably and not from sites so take that fwiw, i'm not digging each player in 2010 back lol, if there was a big offer in 2010 we and the sites would know about it so i'm pretty confident i got them all)
battles-usf
bock-
bryan-temple
clax- temple, asu, md, rutgers, minn
cochran- bc, iowa
floyd-md, temple, marhsall
ghino-
green-fui, buff
gutz-buff, fiu, fau, kansas, mtst
hicks- temple, cuse, pitt, rutgers
levy-
marder-ucf, tulane
meli- psu
norris- kan st, md, msu
puyol- mtst
rugg- buff, ohio, temple, nova
samara-
shortell-
stephens-
sylva-bc, buff
vinci- navy, army
whitmer- several bcs pre juco, memphis tst, kst, mst
jhwilliams- uk, fau, gs, marsh, nm
jwilliams-

-for kicks remember where all those transfers are coming from also. only 1 is going from a lower level to uconn, the rest come from psu/clem/bc/fl...
-18 bcs offers, 4 kids with multiple bcs offers.

2012 was a uptick. thats my stance as u know but the offers and numbers also show it.

 

[pj]

The pattern may be a little clearer if we only include the record against BCS conference opponents:

2002 1-4
2003 3-3
2004 3-4
2005 2-6
2006 2-7
2007 6-5
2008 5-5
2009 6-5
2010 6-4
2011 3-6

So the cumulative prior 3 year record before each signing day:
2012 14-15
2011 17-14
2010 17-15
2009 13-17
2008 10-18
2007 7-17
2006 8-13
2005 7-11

2010 when our recruiting upticked was the first time we went into signing day with a winning 3-year record against BCS opponents.

 

[pj]

Dan, I agree with you, we're on an uptick. Most of all, we're competing with top programs for kids now. I think we're getting in the final 3 with a lot more top kids than in the past ... but only a slight uptick in actual commits.

That said I'm expecting big things from P and company. I think this year we have a really big season, moreover with a brand of football on both sides of the ball that gets kids excited, followed by a big NFL draft; and the Big East will get its new TV deal, maybe a bowl tie-in; one those things happen I think we'll start winning some of these head-to-head battles we've been losing. I think in 2014 recruiting we make inroads into MA, NY, NJ, PA against BC, Cuse, and Rutgers/Temple/Penn St/Pitt, especially if Penn State gets put on some kind of probation.

I said I expected maybe 9/16 3* this year but I think most of the non-rated players will be 3* quality. Definite uptick in quality.

But I think people need to realize the time frames recruiting works on. If you need to win for 3 years before top recruits commit, and need 4 straight quality recruiting classes to compete at the highest levels, that means you need to win 7 straight years to become a top-level team. I haven't checked performance of Boise / Oregon / Stanford / Virginia Tech etc to see if their patterns match that picture, but my guess is it would be reasonably consistent. I think 5-7 years from now if all goes well, we'll be a highly respected team.

 

[Dann]

2013 so far:

thomas- multiple 3*, ruty, temple
hopkins- multiple 3*, bucknell
lagow- multiple 3*, north texas
bradley- multiple 3*, hawaii, umass, temple
myers- temple, fordham
lucas-
fatuk-one 3* so far, buff
burling- purdue, md
thomp- one 3* so far, akron, bc, bg, umass, ohio, temple

-each site still has some rating to do
-temple is now in our confrence and umass is a mac offer now
-AK-just going to assume he will be 2012 class for now...
-four of the nine commits have multiple 3* and there is potential for more still among that 9 once they are rated. two commits have one 3* so far already.
-8 bcs offers total so far from 9 kids, its early and 3 of them have multiple already.

 

[metsfan2323]

Edsall leaving after the Fiesta Bowl. Removing the BCS Bowl as a major recruiting lure.

Actually we saw an uptick after Edsall left (Campienni, Ashiru, Hemmingway, Phillips, Ryan Donaghue). The fact that P was able to hold the class together after Edsall left was also a plus. Edsall just wasn't "all in" when it came to recruiting for UCONN.

Hopefully P keeps 10 scholarships in reserve until after this season. Win 10 games and finish ranked and there will be a major postseason uptick. Plus an NBC TV deal may help recruiting.

 

[Adios]

Actually we saw an uptick after Edsall left. Edsall just wasn't "all in" when it came to recruiting for UCONN.

He sucked in recruiting in our own state.

 

[huskysupporter]

I found something about this very interesting.

In 2004 we had our worst recruiting year (according to Rivals) and yet 3 years later we are sharing a Big East Championship.

In 2006, we only had 3/21 three star kids (again, according to Rivals) and 4 years later we're in the Fiesta Bowl.

What this does for me is reinforces my belief that the gap between a 2 star and 4 star is a lot smaller than we think.

Couldn't have said it better. Those 2 to 4 stars come down to how a coach evaluates. Edsall was very good at this. My hope is Coach P is as well. Won't know for a couple more years.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

 

[huskysupporter]

He sucked in recruiting in our own state.

I think he did a good job of finding talented in state players.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

 

[Rumrunner]

For 2013

Bradley
Rivals 3*
247 3*
ESPN 3*

Hopkins
Rivals 3*
247 2*
ESPN 2*

Lagow
Rivals 3*
247 3*
ESPN 3*

Thomas
Rivals 3*
247 3*
ESPN 3*

Fatukasi
Rivals 2*
247 Not in system??
ESPN 3*

Lucas
Rivals 2*
247 2*
ESPN Not ranked

Myers
Rivals NR
247 NR
ESPN 2*

QThompson
Rivals 3*
247 NR
ESPN NR

If you throw away the lowest rating that a recruit received from a service, then the data looks like:

16 ratings (assigning 0 in each instance a recruit is unranked)
Mean 2.3
Median 3

16 ratings (assigning 1 in each instance a recruit is unranked)
Mean 2.4
Median 3

I left out Burlingame b/c of JC vagaries.

From the data, the average UConn recruit for 2013 so far is a 2.5-3* recruit. That is definitely in the bottom of AQ ratings, and more in line with average of MWC/CUSA.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

In Rivals, instead of stars, a tighter measure would be their avg. numerical rating per number of recruits with 5.5 rating being the 3 star minimum. also should not include unfiished classes.

 

[pj]

From the data, the average UConn recruit for 2013 so far is a 2.5-3* recruit. That is definitely in the bottom of AQ ratings, and more in line with average of MWC/CUSA.

Disagree there.

CUSA teams: East Carolina has 4 rivals 3*. Marshall has 1, Rice has 2, Southern Miss has 1, Tulane has 4 (of 17 commits), Tulsa has 4, UAB zero, UTEP has zero. The only CUSA teams who can match UConn's 5 are coming to the Big East (Houston, SMU, UCF) and they're all in recruiting hotbeds.

MWC teams: Air Force has 1, Colorado St has 2, Fresno St has zero, Hawaii has 1, Nevada has 1, New Mexico zero, UNLV zero, Wyoming zero. Of the teams coming to the Big East, Boise has 6 and SDSU 2.

Apart from teams that are coming to the Big East, not a single MWC or CUSA team has as many 3* recruits as UConn. And this is a small class for us, and we're far from done.

Also, I bet by January a lot of our lower rated guys will become 3* rated.

 

[Rumrunner]

So right now in CUSA:

SMU 5
UCF 9
Houston 6
ECU 4
SoMiss 1
Marshall 1
Tulane 4
UAB 0
Rice 2
Tulsa 4
UTEP 0
Let's put UConn 5

Does that number 5 look out of the ordinary? Not to me.

Since those teams will be playing in CUSA this season (SMU,UCF, and Houston), I don't get your point?

Here's UConn's number 5 as compared to the SEC, ACC's: 3*,4*,5*

Alabama 16
Auburn 14
LSU 19
Texas A & M 22
Florida 18
Georgia 18
USCe 17
Vandy 15
MSU 13
Mizzoue 12
Tenn 10
MSU 10
Ark 7
UK 5
UConn 5

ACC
FSU 17
UVA 14
CU 10
MD 9
VaTech 12
UNC 10
GaTech 9
Miami 8
NC State 9
WFU 7
Bc 5
Duke 5
UConn 5

The #'s are consistent with the Big 12, Pac 12 and Bug 10.

As against the Big East:

The number of 3* commits for the 7 other teams: (no Temple)
8,9,6,7,7,5 [ UConn 5]

So yes, UConn's average recruit looks an average CUSA team. Or a below average BE team. Or a really bad ACC team. Or a really really bad SEC team.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

All this paralysis by analysis.

I'll let you guys know how good this class is. In 3 years.

 

[pj]

So yes, UConn's average recruit looks an average CUSA team. Or a below average BE team. Or a really bad ACC team. Or a really really bad SEC team.

You left off Syracuse with 5 from the ACC. You ignored, eg, Big Ten teams like Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota, none of which has more than 3; and Pac-12 teams like Arizona St, Utah, and Oregon State which have 5 or less. In the SEC, Kentucky has 5. In the Big 12, Kansas, Kansas St, and Iowa St all have 4 or less.

The reason the teams moving to the Big East shouldn't be counted as MWC/CUSA is that they are moving to the Big East, the Big East move helps their recruiting, and all of their commits this year will be playing in the Big East, not the MWC or CUSA.

So we're doing better than every single CUSA or MWC team not moving to the Big East, and as well as or better than 13 teams from the top 5 conferences.

That equals far above average, and above the best, for MWC/CUSA and in line with the lower tier of teams in all the major conferences.

Don't know why you're so eager to portray UConn recruiting as worse than it is. Yes, recruiting will have to get better. But it is improving, and we're closer to the top conferences than to the non-AQ conferences.

 

[Adios]

Maybe the Patriots' and Giants' recent success over the past decade will turn the northeast into a more fertile recruiting ground. It's been a long while since we've had heavy duty success around here in gridiron football.