Drawing to a Winning Hand | The Boneyard

Drawing to a Winning Hand

diggerfoot

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An assist for this post goes to @Bald Huskie, who used the phrase "winning hand" in one of the Cardoso threads.

A full house is typically a winning hand in poker. Three of one kind, two of another, can be compared to having three good guards and two good forwards (the best hand probably is one good guard, one good post and three "interchangeables," but work with me here). Elite programs are in a position to go for an elite "full house," like Aces over Kings, yet there is one combination of cards that beats a full house, the straight flush.

If you are drawing to an elite full house, hoping for another Ace or King, it does not matter what the suit is of the card. However, if you are drawing to a royal flush only the Ace of a particular suit will get you the hand that cannot be beat. Otherwise you only have a straight, a pretty good hand, but not good enough to beat a full house. Evidence suggests that UConn attempts to draw to a straight flush. Drawing and discarding to a straight flush is a higher risk, higher reward strategy, that is where player development comes in to turn the odds in your favor.

Diverse classes are a good strategy for drawing/developing to a straight flush. We have this with a mixture of guards, wings and posts in both the Bueckers and Fudd classes. Now if we can add at least one guard to the Brady class I would say we are fully back on track. This allows for the competition in practices to also be developing a "card" into the suit you eventually need to maintain the right combination of a "straight flush," without risky discard.

In contrast, our 2017 class was a head scratcher for me; I assume factors beyond Auriemma's control led to that. In hindsight we can see that all the guards were good but, unlike with diverse classes, only one or two had a chance to be trained into becoming the right "suit" for the "straight flush" to which we used to aspire. There are bound to be harmful "discards" in classes like that.

It's possible the transfer portal may have the impact of forcing programs into pursuing a "full house" of elite guards and forwards without the development/draw to turn them into a "straight flush" of one developed suit. Yet for now I'm heartened by how 2 1//2 classes in a row has taken shape (with confidence that we'll find an elite guard to go with Brady and Patterson). It requires more patience than many fans have, but it should lead to the more helpful draws and less harmful discards that has been a mark of vintage UConn teams.
 
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I have a hope that HANA MUHL is a future guard for UCONN. If not Hana the an
elite USA version of PG . Check out the WEB PAGES for old and new
Hana highlights. She was a MVP of the Adriatic Conference (?) ( U17) when she
was 15 (if memory serves me correctly.
 

CocoHusky

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Awesome stuff @diggerfoot. Just so you know I'm going to steal borrow this phrase going forward- "harmful discards". BTW I don't know if the '22 class will be completed by an impact guard. The roster is just too crowded up to that position.
 

diggerfoot

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Awesome stuff @diggerfoot. Just so you know I'm going to steal borrow this phrase going forward- "harmful discards". BTW I don't know if the '22 class will be completed by an impact guard. The roster is just too crowded up to that position.
Thanks. Btw, I once tried to pm you on this forum but it would not let me. Live well.
 

CocoHusky

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Thanks. Btw, I once tried to pm you on this forum but it would not let me. Live well.
You do the same. I'm not sure what happening with the PM but I have reported it.
 
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An assist for this post goes to @Bald Huskie, who used the phrase "winning hand" in one of the Cardoso threads.

A full house is typically a winning hand in poker. Three of one kind, two of another, can be compared to having three good guards and two good forwards (the best hand probably is one good guard, one good post and three "interchangeables," but work with me here). Elite programs are in a position to go for an elite "full house," like Aces over Kings, yet there is one combination of cards that beats a full house, the straight flush.

If you are drawing to an elite full house, hoping for another Ace or King, it does not matter what the suit is of the card. However, if you are drawing to a royal flush only the Ace of a particular suit will get you the hand that cannot be beat. Otherwise you only have a straight, a pretty good hand, but not good enough to beat a full house. Evidence suggests that UConn attempts to draw to a straight flush. Drawing and discarding to a straight flush is a higher risk, higher reward strategy, that is where player development comes in to turn the odds in your favor.

Diverse classes are a good strategy for drawing/developing to a straight flush. We have this with a mixture of guards, wings and posts in both the Bueckers and Fudd classes. Now if we can add at least one guard to the Brady class I would say we are fully back on track. This allows for the competition in practices to also be developing a "card" into the suit you eventually need to maintain the right combination of a "straight flush," without risky discard.

In contrast, our 2017 class was a head scratcher for me; I assume factors beyond Auriemma's control led to that. In hindsight we can see that all the guards were good but, unlike with diverse classes, only one or two had a chance to be trained into becoming the right "suit" for the "straight flush" to which we used to aspire. There are bound to be harmful "discards" in classes like that.

It's possible the transfer portal may have the impact of forcing programs into pursuing a "full house" of elite guards and forwards without the development/draw to turn them into a "straight flush" of one developed suit. Yet for now I'm heartened by how 2 1//2 classes in a row has taken shape (with confidence that we'll find an elite guard to go with Brady and Patterson). It requires more patience than many fans have, but it should lead to the more helpful draws and less harmful discards that has been a mark of vintage UConn teams.
Don't forget the river cards
 

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