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[QUOTE="oldhusky, post: 4495194, member: 9844"] I think we all have certain expectations for incoming freshmen. Based on what we see in videos, descriptions of the player's game, and some statistics, we form an opinion. I usually then form a ballpark of what I think their PER might be in their first year, recognizing that it is expected to improve in subsequent years, particularly freshmen to sophomore. In Ayanna's case I expected her PER to be around 20 her first year (15 is average), which would make her a significantly better than average substitute from day one. Most recruits at her ranking are positive contributors right away, at least off the bench. Yes they make mistakes and will get better, but are usually enough above average in enough traits that they are a positive impact right away. Ayanna appeared to be very unrefined offensively to me, so I wasn't necessarily expecting a great deal there, but given her obvious athletic gifts, I did think she would be a great rebounder and shot blocker from the get go, and a great one on one defender who would need to learn team defense, but would be special there very soon. Thus far her PER has been a little over 13, which frankly is not even in the ballpark of my expectations for whatever reason. Not being able to finish around the basket does not surprise me much, because she often shoots jump shots at point blank range. In HS she could do that, simply go over smaller players. At this level she needs to shield the ball from defenders more, develop more moves, and show some deception and patience. Everything seems rushed now and overly reliant on her physical superiority. Being rushed and overly aggressive has been killing her on defense as well. Her biggest statistical negative is not the interior finishing, but rather her rate of fouling which last time I looked on Her Hoops Stats was in the 2nd percentile of all Division 1 players, meaning she fouls more than 98% of the players in the data base. Moving that closer to average would pull her overall rating up dramatically. I also find the rebounding and shot blocking to be disappointing so far. Those numbers are pretty good, but given her athletic ability I thought she would be truly elite there, and so far it has been good but far from great. The ability and the effort are clearly there, as is the potential upside, but she has a long way to go to reach what at least I was expecting from her by this point in the season. At this point she is the player I most would like to see a breakout game from to regain her confidence and get her back on track. I think her offseason will be particularly important as well for next year, working on refining her finishing around the hoop against players her size that she just can't overpower like she did in HS. The potential is still there. [/QUOTE]
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