Does Geno catch Tara this season?

[mhshuskies]

Stanford lost at home to an unraked team to go to 6-6 starting conference play. Stanford has 18 games remaining on the schedule including 6 with ranked opponents. If they go .500 or worse in conference play, that could mean a gain of 9 + games for Geno. Then there is conference tournaments which could be a 2+ gain. Does a Stanford team with an even or less record still get into the NCAA and even so how far would they go? That could be a gain of 5 or 6 games. So how about this scenario, UCONN in the NC game with the chance to tie or pass Tara?

 

[UConn82]

No way this year. Tara will right her ship some. She is a truly great coach.

Soon, but not this year. I am calling it "The race to 1099." I want to see Geno catch her before he passes Pat.

 

[oldude]

The loss to Western Illinois certainly opened up the possibility that Stanford may be a 500 team this year, with the potential to quietly bow out of their conference tournament and miss the Big Dance entirely. At the same time, it’s difficult to contemplate that a HOF coach like Tara won’t be able to turn this team around by the end of the season.

But if UConn runs the table to win 38 games this season and Tara is unable to right the ship, then Geno could catch Tara this year. For the sake of WBB I’d rather not see that happen. I too believe a race between two great coaches to the holy grail of 1098 is better for WBB.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Tara is old and should retire. Then Geno will have no problem passing her.

 

[bags27]

Tara is old and should retire..

. You mean just BECAUSE she's old, she should retire? She's 9 months older than Geno....

But I agree that she SEEMS old on the bench, while Geno, like a Maytag washer, is just getting broken in....

 

[oldude]

Tara is old and should retire. Then Geno will have no problem passing her.

I hope your tongue was firmly planted in your cheek on that post. If not, I would point out that Tara is less than a year older than Geno, and, if I were being truly objective, she appears to be healthier.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I think most of you are giving Stanford way too much credit. They are not good this year. Even with that said, it would be hard for Geno to make up the 17 game difference in the remaining season. I think if UConn runs the table, it will be 28 more wins and all Stanford would have to do is to win 11 more to make it tied. I'm pretty sure they can win at least 11 more this season.

 

[oldude]

For years Stanford had a tremendous advantage over most schools relative to recruiting. One of the top academic schools in the nation, a beautiful campus environment and a perennial national power in WBB. Top players from around the country headed to play for Tara in Palo Alto, including the Ogwumike sisters and the two eldest Samuelsons.

One unexpected turn of events over the past few years that has negatively impacted Stanford WBB, is that they have repeatedly lost out on top recruits. While Stanford continues to get good players, Geno alone has pulled a number of top recruits from right under Tara’s nose including KML, Gabby and the youngest and most talented Samuelson sister. In addition, as Pac12 WBB has continued to improve, teams like UCLA, Cal, USC and others are now competing and winning recruiting battles that Stanford used to win more often than not.

Add to that, the transfer of Lili Thompson, a former starting pg with Stanford, and the somewhat surprising decision by ONO to eliminate Stanford from her list of finalists before eventually selecting UConn, and it makes you wonder if Stanford has lost its way in recruiting, something that used to be a tremendous strength.

 

[bags27]

For years Stanford had a tremendous advantage over most schools relative to recruiting.

One unexpected turn of events over the past few years that has negatively impacted Stanford WBB, is that they have repeatedly lost out on top recruits.

and it makes you wonder if Stanford has lost its way in recruiting, something that used to be a tremendous strength.

This seems entirely right, oldude, but WHY have they "lost their way"? If Stanford could and still can pretty much sell itself because of academic reputation (which is an absurd thing for athletes to fall for, but I'm not going to argue that again here), location (true), and social networking (true), what exactly has changed? Is it that Tara is "acting old" and that Geno isn't acting similarly? Or is it just a kind of lull that happens to even the best teams? Or maybe it's something significant that we haven't yet figured out, like the effects of more TV coverage and/or social media making it harder to "sell" a school based solely on reputation? or track record of preparing athletes for professional play, or something else? Is it a trend or just a one-off?

One thing that I do know that happens is that both ADs and directors of admission focus on certain sports and then eventually move on to other interests, leaving an established program in the lurch (famously, Princeton's decision regarding men's lacrosse cost them their great coach). Not saying it happened at Stanford, which probably focuses on all sports across-the-board more successfully than any other school in the country, but there can be nuanced shifts that we'll never be privy to.

 

[pacific 44]

Did Tara decide not to take credit for Stanford's victories one year when she was coaching the national team? I think she was still the Stanford coach and could actually have more victories but i can't remember the exact details.Coach Hatchell sp? missed a year of coaching the tarheels due to illness and she claims those wins.Maybe Tara can be credited with additional wins.I am not sure why these situations have played out the way that they have but someone here might know.

 

[WestCoastPup]

Did Tara decide not to take credit for Stanford's victories one year when she was coaching the national team?

Tara took a leave of absence the year she toured with the National Team, thus she was NOT the Stanford Head Coach that year. Hatchel took medical leave, but was STILL the head coach, so she gets credit for those wins, even though she wasn't physically on the bench. Hope that helps...

 

[oldude]

This seems entirely right, oldude, but WHY have they "lost their way"? If Stanford could and still can pretty much sell itself because of academic reputation (which is an absurd thing for athletes to fall for, but I'm not going to argue that again here), location (true), and social networking (true), what exactly has changed? Is it that Tara is "acting old" and that Geno isn't acting similarly? Or is it just a kind of lull that happens to even the best teams? Or maybe it's something significant that we haven't yet figured out, like the effects of more TV coverage and/or social media making it harder to "sell" a school based solely on reputation? or track record of preparing athletes for professional play, or something else? Is it a trend or just a one-off?

One thing that I do know that happens is that both ADs and directors of admission focus on certain sports and then eventually move on to other interests, leaving an established program in the lurch (famously, Princeton's decision regarding men's lacrosse cost them their great coach). Not saying it happened at Stanford, which probably focuses on all sports across-the-board more successfully than any other school in the country, but there can be nuanced shifts that we'll never be privy to.

All good questions. I have no firm answers...just a theory. I think for many years, Stanford sold itself as you indicate, similar perhaps to schools like UNC & Duke. But as Geno and others have pointed out, the days of contacting a top recruit in the fall of their senior year in HS and getting them to sign are long gone. Geno and his staff are working harder than ever, extending offers as early as a player’s freshman year (Azzi Fudd) and then babysitting those prized recruits all the way to signing day their senior year.

My theory is simply that Tara may still believe that Stanford sells itself and that additional engagement on the part of the coaching staff is not necessarily that important. At the end of the day, she may simply be a mediocre recruiter.

In my interaction with older college coaches through the years, for most of them, the aspect of the job they like the least is recruiting. While they can delegate much of the recruiting evaluation and legwork to younger assistants, the HC still has to be involved in the process and certainly has to be the ultimate closer.

Geno never misses an opportunity to watch a prospect play or meet with them, their family and their HS coach. By the time that kid makes their decision, Geno has established a relationship with everyone involved in the decision. It’s a hell of a lot of work for a 63 year old guy, but that’s what it takes to get to the top and stay on top.

 

[bags27]

You may well have nailed it, oldude.

I am shocked at and completely against offering athlete scholarships (or any scholarships) to 9th graders. It's bad for them and their peers, and makes a mockery of the application process: how can any college predict how a ninth grader will do with high school work and on SATs? I realize that's the norm these days and UConn is only keeping up with the competition. Maybe Stanford can't or won't do that. Or maybe, as you say, Tara and her staff are just overly confident and need to define deviancy downward.

 

[rugbymate]

Geno does not catch Tara this year but probably next year but not guaranteed. Tara is one of the great women's basketball coaches in women's history ( and a class act). But like most top programs ( Tennessee, Duke, UNC , Rutgers) things happen like a soft recruiting period, academic issues, injuries etc that lead to a down year or period. Stanford was a FF team last year and they will be back. However, UCONN seems to be exempt from down periods. When the very top recruits are looking for their best fit, they see a UCONN that is a model of consistent performance with a "program" that is the most comprehensive in women's sports. So when KLS decides that her best fit is the school that that will develop her better than any other and give her the best shot at an NC then she only has one choice. The genius of Geno has been to build a program that allows the top recruits that think like KLS to achieve their goals.

 

[oldude]

You may well have nailed it, oldude.

I am shocked at and completely against offering athlete scholarships (or any scholarships) to 9th graders. It's bad for them and their peers, and makes a mockery of the application process: how can any college predict how a ninth grader will do with high school work and on SATs? I realize that's the norm these days and UConn is only keeping up with the competition. Maybe Stanford can't or won't do that. Or maybe, as you say, Tara and her staff are just overly confident and need to define deviancy downward.

I don’t disagree, but every coach has to adjust to the realities of the game as it changes, or go the way of the dinosaurs. To Geno’s credit, once he extends an offer, that offer is good, unless the recruit advises they’re heading somewhere else, and Geno typically tries very hard to limit the number of scholarship offers in any one class so as not to end up with a bunch of kids he can not possibly find playing time for. Other schools will pull offers if they get a bigger fish on the line or pull in 5+ player classes that result in disgruntled players and transfers.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that Stanford can't actually offer a scholarship until a prospective recruit makes it through their admissions process. They don't use any kind of sliding scale for athletes like some schools do. Either you qualify to get in or you don't. That significantly lessens the pool of available players Stanford can go after. Now a problem can arise if you don't get most of those players that do qualify that you have targeted. I think they used to, and that might be changing.

 

[bags27]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that Stanford can't actually offer a scholarship until a prospective recruit makes it through their admissions process. They don't use any kind of sliding scale for athletes like some schools do. Either you qualify to get in or you don't. That significantly lessens the pool of available players Stanford can go after. Now a problem can arise if you don't get most of those players that do qualify that you have targeted. I think they used to, and that might be changing.

True for most of the so-called "elite" privates. They honestly do not want to bring anyone in whom they are not confident can do the work. What I don't know (but could find out) is whether they can make that determination before junior year grades are posted and SATs taken--which is when non-athletes can apply for early action or early decision; in other words, whether they can compete for the 9th graders.

 

[oldude]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that Stanford can't actually offer a scholarship until a prospective recruit makes it through their admissions process. They don't use any kind of sliding scale for athletes like some schools do. Either you qualify to get in or you don't. That significantly lessens the pool of available players Stanford can go after. Now a problem can arise if you don't get most of those players that do qualify that you have targeted. I think they used to, and that might be changing.

I’ve heard this argument before and it’s not entirely correct. Stanford has certain academic minimum guidelines, but there is considerable leeway allowed for athletes, talented musicians, etc., as well as various minorities. If football, MBB, WBB, swimming, golf, tennis, etc. want a recruit, up to whatever number of scholarships they are allotted, unless that athlete falls well below the guidelines, Stanford Admissions will accept them.

Furthermore, I think it’s fair to suggest that with few if any exceptions, Stanford would have been happy to accept just about everyone in the last 5-10 UConn recruiting classes.

 

[oldude]

True for most of the so-called "elite" privates. They honestly do not want to bring anyone in whom they are not confident can do the work. What I don't know (but could find out) is whether they can make that determination before junior year grades are posted and SATs taken--which is when non-athletes can apply for early action or early decision; in other words, whether they can compete for the 9th graders.

Stanford, like the Ivies, make a determination on recruits at the end of their junior year. They couldn’t offer LOI’s to recruits if they didn’t. The only caveat is that the recruit then complete their academic program in good standing and graduate from HS.

 

[Carnac]

I think most of you are giving Stanford way too much credit. They are not good this year. Even with that said, it would be hard for Geno to make up the 17 game difference in the remaining season. I think if UConn runs the table, it will be 28 more wins and all Stanford would have to do is to win 11 more to make it tied. I'm pretty sure they can win at least 11 more this season.

Unless Stanford has a complete and total collapse - Geno will not catch Tara THIS year. 17 games is a bridge too far to cross in a single season for the reasons you've stated. Maybe by the end of next year, and maybe not even then. If you figure Geno will only lose 1-2 games a year for the foreseeable future, and Tara should not lose more than 4 beginning next year. Yes, this is a down year for The Cardinal, but don't expect it to linger. Crunching the numbers, I'd say at best, it will take Geno 3 seasons to catch Tara.

 

[BroadwayVa]

The loss to Western Illinois certainly opened up the possibility that Stanford may be a 500 team this year, with the potential to quietly bow out of their conference tournament and miss the Big Dance entirely. At the same time, it’s difficult to contemplate that a HOF coach like Tara won’t be able to turn this team around by the end of the season.

But if UConn runs the table to win 38 games this season and Tara is unable to right the ship, then Geno could catch Tara this year. For the sake of WBB I’d rather not see that happen. I too believe a race between two great coaches to the holy grail of 1098 is better for WBB.

They weren't kidding---Tara is an exceptional coach---500 wins this year?? No way Geno can match that---his best is 40.
Most of what you say about Tara D V is accurate. She going to have to do some fantastic coaching. But it is not like she'll lose 50 percent of her games. As much as I like Uconn beating her--and hated her beating a Maya team. I respect her abilities and like you think she'll right this ship. In RED above: One is possible the other not likely.

 

[rugbymate]

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that Stanford can't actually offer a scholarship until a prospective recruit makes it through their admissions process. They don't use any kind of sliding scale for athletes like some schools do. Either you qualify to get in or you don't. That significantly lessens the pool of available players Stanford can go after. Now a problem can arise if you don't get most of those players that do qualify that you have targeted. I think they used to, and that might be changing.

Just to be clear,. at the Ivies and equivalents, for some sports a coach usually can provide a list to admissions of players that he or she wants and the players are not necessarily vetted against the applicant pool but vetted against a minimum standard , which can be fuzzy.

 

[BroadwayVa]

You may well have nailed it, oldude.

I am shocked at and completely against offering athlete scholarships (or any scholarships) to 9th graders. It's bad for them and their peers, and makes a mockery of the application process: how can any college predict how a ninth grader will do with high school work and on SATs? I realize that's the norm these days and UConn is only keeping up with the competition. Maybe Stanford can't or won't do that. Or maybe, as you say, Tara and her staff are just overly confident and need to define deviancy downward.

Bags---do you have to predict a students grades for the athlete or can you offer the scholarship predicated on acceptance in 2 years?? No it's a bad trend, terrible actually. Communications are fast and getting faster--this tends to speed up those things that should take time to develop.

 

[oldude]

They weren't kidding---Tara is an exceptional coach---500 wins this year?? No way Geno can match that---his best is 40.
Most of what you say about Tara D V is accurate. She going to have to do some fantastic coaching. But it is not like she'll lose 50 percent of her games. As much as I like Uconn beating her--and hated her beating a Maya team. I respect her abilities and like you think she'll right this ship. In RED above: One is possible the other not likely.

Tara is a HOF coach and deservedly so, but between graduations and injuries, she just may not have the players to get it done this season.

 

[bballnut90]

Not sure it'll be this season--but he'll definitely break Pat's record before she does. Stanford has actually been recruiting well lately, they may need a solid year to gel before they start hitting their stride:
2018: 2 top 20 recruits (#16 and 20)
2017: #8 recruit and #11 recruit
2016: 3 top 50 recruits (#27, 34 and 42)
2015: #38 recruit and Alanna Smith (Australia)
2014: 3 top 30 recruits

That said, they have definitely lacked star power. The best Stanford squads were loaded with top kids. On rosters from 2008-2012, they had:
Candice Wiggins-top 5 recruit
Jayne Appel-top 5 recruit
Kayla Pederson-top 5 recruit
Nneka Ogwumike-top 5 recruit
Chiney Ogwumike-#1 recruit
Joslyn Tinkle-top 10 recruit

Kiana Williams is the first top 10 recruit since Chiney in 2010. While they've remained competitive and have fielded strong teams, they haven't been a national power like they were during their 5 straight Final Four years.