Do players improve when they go to Kentucky?

[UConnJim]

Every year, we see so many top recruits go to Kentucky, but are they really improving at Kentucky? From 2010 to 2015, Kentucky has signed 25 top 30 recruits. In other words, these kids were already recognized as top high school basketball talents. But did the recruits improve their draft status by going to Kentucky?

If you compare their high school recruiting ranking with their NBA draft selection, it appears that going to Kentucky is not improving the draft status of the players. Of the 25 top 30 recruits, here is how they were selected in the NBA draft relative to their high school class ranking:

Drafted above their high school ranking: 5
Drafted = high school ranking: 1
Drafted below their high school ranking: 16
To be determined: 3 (Briscoe, Lee, and Mulder, but they will probably be below their high school ranking)

So, we could have 19/25 kids selected below their high school recruiting ranking. How was it beneficial for these kids to go to Kentucky? Would they developed more if they went to another school with less talent on the roster?

Look at a kid like Wenyen Gabriel. 14th ranked recruit and was basically out of the rotation at Kentucky by the end of the season as his minutes collapsed. His 40 minute #s: 10.3 pts, 10.8 rbs, 2.0 blocks. Has he improved his draft stock? Probably not. Would he have developed more at another school? Probably.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Just what we need.

 

[Jerry1714]

OT: - Bam Adebayo hires agent

 

[Stainmaster]

I wonder if Kentucky's board has as many threads on us as we do on them.

An interesting research project for another day.

 

[AntG168]

What calipari does to these MCDAAs is equivalent to selling water to a fish. These kids dont need kentucky or calipari to get to the NBA. He's just somehow convinced them they do

 

[Storrs South]

I wonder if Kentucky's board has as many threads on us as we do on them.

An interesting research project for another day.

I see on Twitter that Kentucky fans frequently bring up UConn in terms of having won more championships since Cal linked up with UK. There is definitely a non-insignificant faction of their fanbase that is not happy with Cal having only won 1 championship with UK.

 

[KembaStepback]

I don't think it's fair to say to be honest. What he can promise them is a load of other talented players to compete against in practice. These teams generally start slow and hit their stride in March. A lot of that has to do with them getting used to playing with each other. But at least some of it is improvement. Some guys just don't pan out. Not all these top recruits have what it takes. Cal isn't going to hit on all of them.

 

[BlueMAB]

Their HS ranking is just that, a ranking against other HS players.

When they are drafted, they are measured against established college players and international players. They should be expected to drop. I'm impressed that 5 were actually drafted higher than they were rated. The fact most were drafted below their HS rating should be expected, it doesn't mean they didn't improve.

Edit:

The OP also conveniently ignores the very real possibility that some kids in HS will be overrated. There's simply no reason to accept that their HS ranking as entirely accurate.

 

[gtcam]

I don't think it's fair to say to be honest. What he can promise them is a load of other talented players to compete against in practice. These teams generally start slow and hit their stride in March. A lot of that has to do with them getting used to playing with each other. But at least some of it is improvement. Some guys just don't pan out. Not all these top recruits have what it takes. Cal isn't going to hit on all of them.

Hit their stride in March - sounds like a few UConn teams to me - with reaching the ultimate goal

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Cal isn't going to hit on all of them.

Is that his secret?

 

[Danzz]

Every year, we see so many top recruits go to Kentucky, but are they really improving at Kentucky? From 2010 to 2015, Kentucky has signed 25 top 30 recruits. In other words, these kids were already recognized as top high school basketball talents. But did the recruits improve their draft status by going to Kentucky?

If you compare their high school recruiting ranking with their NBA draft selection, it appears that going to Kentucky is not improving the draft status of the players. Of the 25 top 30 recruits, here is how they were selected in the NBA draft relative to their high school class ranking:

Drafted above their high school ranking: 5
Drafted = high school ranking: 1
Drafted below their high school ranking: 16
To be determined: 3 (Briscoe, Lee, and Mulder, but they will probably be below their high school ranking)

So, we could have 19/25 kids selected below their high school recruiting ranking. How was it beneficial for these kids to go to Kentucky? Would they developed more if they went to another school with less talent on the roster?

Look at a kid like Wenyen Gabriel. 14th ranked recruit and was basically out of the rotation at Kentucky by the end of the season as his minutes collapsed. His 40 minute #s: 10.3 pts, 10.8 rbs, 2.0 blocks. Has he improved his draft stock? Probably not. Would he have developed more at another school? Probably.

Kentucky players aren't there long enough to improve.

 

[polycom]

Yes, for the most part. Pre college rankings don't matter because they are a crapshoot. However, you can see clear differences in there game after 1 year for the vast majority.

 

[Balker]

Recruits don't pick Kentucky because Calipari is good at teaching basketball skills. They pick it because all the other top recruits do, it's treated as a training ground for the NBA, and there are scouts there constantly every step of the way. It's a bit of circular logic, but that's how these things work, and whatever Cal is selling to top recruits, it seems to be working, and has since he was at UMass.

You can't look at the input as a high school recruiting ranking and the output being their draft position. Undersized guards are often highly ranked HS recruits, for instance, but get surpassed by 6'3" PGs from small schools like Damian Lillard who was ranked below 300 in his class but was the top PG in the 2012 draft. Plus, just by nature, if a school has either all highly ranked, or low ranked HS recruits, they are exponentially more likely to underperform, or over perform when looking at how they "groom recruits" in that way.

 

[auror]

What calipari does to these MCDAAs is equivalent to selling water to a fish. These kids dont need kentucky or calipari to get to the NBA. He's just somehow convinced them they do

Nah it's selling the swiftest Salmon on a particular stream. They have to go to a stream, might as well go to the one with the best spawning rate, even if they'd have no trouble on their own. But it's only the best spawning stream because at some point he started convincing only the swiftest Salmon to go.

 

[willie99]

I use you and you use me and nobody cares, working on our night moves

One and done are student athletes for about 8 months

 

[traitor71]

I think Cal and these kids pretty much see college sports for what it is. Win, play on television a lot and get to the pros. I will say this about Cal, I don't like him, but the guy has a new team pretty much every year and wins a lot of games so he can't just be rolling out the basketball and letting these kids do it themselves.