Women's basketball: Do conference tournament championships spark NCAA title runs? | NCAA.com
Excerpts:
- With 64 percent of the past 25 champions also boasting conference tournament crowns, fans should feel confident picking one to win the national title but not beholden to doing so. Thirty-six percent is more than a third and only twice have teams combined to put together back-to-back years of a non-conference champion winning it all.
- UConn seems to be a safe pick no matter what year. The Huskies have 11 national titles during this span and three came when they didn’t win their conference tournament. They won four national championships in a row from 2013-16, back-to-back titles in 2009 and 2010, three straight from 2002-04, one in 2000 and another in 1995.
- It’s rare a school doesn’t make its conference final and wins it all. Just three times in the past 25 years — Tennessee in 1997, UConn in 2004 and Tennessee again in 2007 — has it happened. Pick teams that have overcome adversity, but shy away from those who are bounced early in their conference tournaments.
I don't think it's a good indication, especially if the team comes from a conference where they have multiple final four threats/participants. If you look back year by year you have:
Champions who played in conference with FF threat (#2 seed in NCAA tournament or Elite 8 finish):
2018-Notre Dame, lost to a Final Four participant in conference finals (by 2)
2017-South Carolina, won over a Final Four participant
2014-UCONN, won over a Final Four threat Louisville
2013-UCONN, lost to Final Four participant (by 2)
2011-A&M, lost to Final Four threat Baylor (by 3)
2009-UCONN, won over Final Four participant
2008-Tennessee, won over Final Four participant
2007-Tennessee, lost to Final Four participant (by 9)
2006-Maryland, lost to Final Four participant (by 11)
2003-Connecticut, lost to Final Four threat Villanova (by 4)
2001-Notre Dame, lost to Final Four participant (by 2)
2000-UCONN, won over Final Four participant
1998-Tennessee, won over Final Four threat Alabama
1997-Tennessee, lost to non Final Four threat (but conf. had Final Four threats) (by 2)
1996-Tennessee, won over non Final Four threat (but conf had Final Four threats)
This group went 7-8 against other Final Four threats or participants....pretty much a toss up if the eventual champion wins or loses. It is worth noting, almost all of the losses by the eventual champion were very competitive or hard fought games. None of the eventual champions were blown out in their conference tournaments.
Champions who played in conference without FF threat:
2016 UCONN
2015 UCONN
2012 Baylor
2010 UCONN
2005 Baylor
2004 UCONN (lost)
2002 UCONN
1999 Purdue
1995 UCONN
1994 North Carolina
This group went 9-1 playing against pretty weak competition....all of these were no brainer picks, especially UCONN in AAC.
Overall I don't think losing in a conference tournament is a bad sign entering the NCAAs as long as you're losing to a good team. However, if you lose badly or lose to a mediocre team, it's a pretty bad sign as only 2004 UCONN and 1997 Tennessee overcame that to win it all.
