Digging Deeper into the Defense

[UConnJim]

I think we will all agree that the biggest disappointment this year has been the defense. People have argued about scheme vs talent, so let's dig a little deeper.

First, let's look at the stats.

2016:
Scoring defense 28.1 pts/gm. (65th)
Total defense 410.8 yds/gm. (65th)
Rushing defense 146 yds/gm. (41st)
Passing defense 265 yds/gm. (107th)
Sacks 1.42/gm. (111th)
Tackles for loss 4.58/gm. (118th)
Interceptions 0.58/gm. (104th)
Fumbles Forced 0.67/gm. (93rd)
3rd down conversions 40.8% (77th)

2017:
Scoring defense 38.3 pts/gm. (123rd)
Total defense 554.3 yds/gm. (129th)
Rushing defense 175.8 yds/gm. (79th)
Passing defense 379 yds/gm. (130th)
Sacks 2.11/gm. (55th)
Tackles for loss 5.56/gm. (75th)
Interceptions 0.56/gm. (98th)
Forced fumbles 1.00/gm. (30th)
3rd down conversions 49.3% (125th)

Generally, the defense this year has worse stats, but the defense that Edsall inherited was not that good. Clearly, the defense this year is trying to be more aggressive as sacks and tackle for loss are up, but we all see the DB cushions which are leading to big passing days for opposing QBs. The defense still doesn't force enough turnovers, but forced fumbles are up (I was surprised based on poor tackling), but interceptions are about the same.

In my opinion, some (I'm saying some, not all) of the defensive deterioration from last year can be attributed to Diaco's offensive style which focused on ball control as Diaco tried to eliminate opponent's offensive possessions. UConn's offensive time of possession has gone from 29:52 (64th) to 27:58 (106th) this year meaning that opponents have the ball almost 2 minutes per game more than last year.

Now let's look at the roster numbers.

UConn returned 7 starters and 8 backups from the 2016 defense, which was a 4-3-4. That is 15 out of 22 on the 2 deep which should have meant that UConn would have a relatively experienced defense in 2017. The staters lost were Myers (DT), Walsh (LB), Williams (CB), and Melinfonwu (S) and they were all solid contributors to the defense.

At DL, UConn brought back 11 scholarship players and 1 walk-on. At LB, UConn brought back 6 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons. At DB, UConn brought back 10 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons. In summary:

DL 11 returning scholarship players.
LB: 6 returning scholarship players
DB: 10 returning scholarship players

If UConn continued playing a 4-3-4 defense the experienced depth at DL and DB looked OK, but LB looked thin. With the switch to a 3-3-5 defense, UConn looked like they had too many DL and were now thin at both LB and DB. Injuries at LB and DB have compounded the thin roster problems at LB and DB.

With the roster they inherited and the switch to the 3-3-5 defense, the coaches recognized the numbers problems as they brought in 6 DBs, 4 LBs, and only 1 DL.

The DB 2 deep for USF included 2 Fr and 1 RFr starters and 1 Fr and 1 RFr backups. Since UConn has to develop most players to be competitive at this level, the inexperience at DB means that the defense will not be good.

My takeaways:

The defense under Diaco in 2016 was not that good and was made to look better by the offense emphasizing ball control to keep the opponents' offense off the field. This year's defense is more aggressive than Diaco's, but the overall poor play of the defense has masked the philosophy change. The roster that Edsall inherited was designed for a 4-3-4 defense and the switch to a 3-3-5 meant UConn would have depth problems at both LB and DB this season even if there were no injuries.

Edsall inherited a weak defense and coupled with a switch to a 3-3-5 defense that the roster was not designed for has lead to the worst defense that UConn has had in the FBS era.

 

[Excalibur]

UConn never played with a 4 man front under Diaco.

 

[JMick]

We were 109 last year in adjusted efficiency and we are currently at 120. The drop-off isn't nearly as bad as many would think

 

[UConnJim]

UConn never played with a 4 man front under Diaco.

Ultimately, Diaco wanted to play a 3-4, but he never fully transitioned to it while he was UConn. His depth charts showed a 4 man front. Carrozola was listed as a DE, but he played a hybrid position.

 

[Excalibur]

I don't care about the depth chart. Our actual lineup, on the field, was a 3 man front with Campenni and then Meyers as a NT and Fatukasi as a strong side end.

 

[ktuck911]

I think we will all agree that the biggest disappointment this year has been the defense. People have argued about scheme vs talent, so let's dig a little deeper.

First, let's look at the stats.

2016:
Scoring defense 28.1 pts/gm. (65th)
Total defense 410.8 yds/gm. (65th)
Rushing defense 146 yds/gm. (41st)
Passing defense 265 yds/gm. (107th)
Sacks 1.42/gm. (111th)
Tackles for loss 4.58/gm. (118th)
Interceptions 0.58/gm. (104th)
Fumbles Forced 0.67/gm. (93rd)
3rd down conversions 40.8% (77th)

2017:
Scoring defense 38.3 pts/gm. (123rd)
Total defense 554.3 yds/gm. (129th)
Rushing defense 175.8 yds/gm. (79th)
Passing defense 379 yds/gm. (130th)
Sacks 2.11/gm. (55th)
Tackles for loss 5.56/gm. (75th)
Interceptions 0.56/gm. (98th)
Forced fumbles 1.00/gm. (30th)
3rd down conversions 49.3% (125th)

Generally, the defense this year has worse stats, but the defense that Edsall inherited was not that good. Clearly, the defense this year is trying to be more aggressive as sacks and tackle for loss are up, but we all see the DB cushions which are leading to big passing days for opposing QBs. The defense still doesn't force enough turnovers, but forced fumbles are up (I was surprised based on poor tackling), but interceptions are about the same.

In my opinion, some (I'm saying some, not all) of the defensive deterioration from last year can be attributed to Diaco's offensive style which focused on ball control as Diaco tried to eliminate opponent's offensive possessions. UConn's offensive time of possession has gone from 29:52 (64th) to 27:58 (106th) this year meaning that opponents have the ball almost 2 minutes per game more than last year.

Now let's look at the roster numbers.

UConn returned 7 starters and 8 backups from the 2016 defense, which was a 4-3-4. That is 15 out of 22 on the 2 deep which should have meant that UConn would have a relatively experienced defense in 2017. The staters lost were Myers (DT), Walsh (LB), Williams (CB), and Melinfonwu (S) and they were all solid contributors to the defense.

At DL, UConn brought back 11 scholarship players and 1 walk-on. At LB, UConn brought back 6 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons. At DB, UConn brought back 10 scholarship players and 2 walk-ons. In summary:

DL 11 returning scholarship players.
LB: 6 returning scholarship players
DB: 10 returning scholarship players

If UConn continued playing a 4-3-4 defense the experienced depth at DL and DB looked OK, but LB looked thin. With the switch to a 3-3-5 defense, UConn looked like they had too many DL and were now thin at both LB and DB. Injuries at LB and DB have compounded the thin roster problems at LB and DB.

With the roster they inherited and the switch to the 3-3-5 defense, the coaches recognized the numbers problems as they brought in 6 DBs, 4 LBs, and only 1 DL.

The DB 2 deep for USF included 2 Fr and 1 RFr starters and 1 Fr and 1 RFr backups. Since UConn has to develop most players to be competitive at this level, the inexperience at DB means that the defense will not be good.

My takeaways:

The defense under Diaco in 2016 was not that good and was made to look better by the offense emphasizing ball control to keep the opponents' offense off the field. This year's defense is more aggressive than Diaco's, but the overall poor play of the defense has masked the philosophy change. The roster that Edsall inherited was designed for a 4-3-4 defense and the switch to a 3-3-5 meant UConn would have depth problems at both LB and DB this season even if there were no injuries.

Edsall inherited a weak defense and coupled with a switch to a 3-3-5 defense that the roster was not designed for has lead to the worst defense that UConn has had in the FBS era.

Honestly, I thought we were at 60% on 3rd down conversions... 49% is way better than I thought... still not good though...

 

[UConnDan97]

Also, the decrease in time of possession from Diaco to this year's offense is an illusion. That's not why the defense is worse.

If you look at the time of possession stats (I did this up to two games ago and posted the results in another thread), the offense is only about 3 1/2 minutes shy in possession vs. Diaco's offense. So in other words, the wild scores that the defense has let up this year is not due to what amounts to less than 4 extra minutes on the field.

Diaco's offense was slow and methodical, but they also went 3-and-out. This offense, while operating much faster, at least makes the announcer say, "That's another UConn....first down!"

 

[businesslawyer]

I don't care about the depth chart. Our actual lineup, on the field, was a 3 man front with Campenni and then Meyers as a NT and Fatukasi as a strong side end.

to be fair, it was more like a 3-1-3-4. I could never decide watching us line up whether the Luke/Stape position was more of a DE or more of a LB. It really was some of both.

 

[UConnJim]

I don't care about the depth chart. Our actual lineup, on the field, was a 3 man front with Campenni and then Meyers as a NT and Fatukasi as a strong side end.

Carrezola played the hybrid DE/LB position in Diaco's defense and was generally positioned on the line. Stapleton played that role as well. Based on their size and skills, they are really DEs, not LBs.

 

[UConnJim]

Also, the decrease in time of possession from Diaco to this year's offense is an illusion. That's not why the defense is worse.

If you look at the time of possession stats (I did this up to two games ago and posted the results in another thread), the offense is only about 3 1/2 minutes shy in possession vs. Diaco's offense. So in other words, the wild scores that the defense has let up this year is not due to what amounts to less than 4 extra minutes on the field.

Diaco's offense was slow and methodical, but they also went 3-and-out. This offense, while operating much faster, at least makes the announcer say, "That's another UConn....first down!"

Right now, UConn's time of possession is 2 minutes less than last year. I didn't say it was the main reason the defensive stats are worse, but a contributing reason. That 2 minutes per game translate to about 5 plays per game which equals about 25 to 30 yards per game against an average defense (teams average 400 yards per game of offense and 75 plays in 30 minutes of possession) and probably 30 to 40 yards against UConn's defense which allows 6.8 yards per play.

By the way, UConn's offensive time of possession has gone from 64th in the country to 106th this year. This is due to a hurry up offense paired with a below average defense which is a bad combination. UConn's opponents' offenses have the ball ~4 minutes per game more than UConn's offense and last year that gap was about 0, and it does put additional pressure on the defense.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

We are actually a threat to move the football and put up points on offense this year. Last year we were not.

When we were down 20 last year, other teams tended to take their foot off the gas on offense because they didn't have to worry about us stringing scoring drives together.

Also, our schedule is just all-around tougher this year. Our SOS is 78 this year vs an abysmal 116 last year. Even if we had exactly the same defense as last year, you'd expect defensive regression this season against a tougher schedule.

 

[UConnDan97]

Right now, UConn's time of possession is 2 minutes less than last year. I didn't say it was the main reason the defensive stats are worse, but a contributing reason. That 2 minutes per game translate to about 5 plays per game which equals about 25 to 30 yards per game against an average defense (teams average 400 yards per game of offense and 75 plays in 30 minutes of possession) and probably 30 to 40 yards against UConn's defense which allows 6.8 yards per play.

By the way, UConn's offensive time of possession has gone from 64th in the country to 106th this year. This is due to a hurry up offense paired with a below average defense which is a bad combination. UConn's opponents' offenses have the ball ~4 minutes per game more than UConn's offense and last year that gap was about 0, and it does put additional pressure on the defense.

Okay.

So from your statement above, how is 40 extra yards contributing in any measurable sense to what we are seeing this year? The question is rhetorical, so don't worry about answering it. The answer, of course, is no real measurable difference. You could convince me that 40 extra yards is the difference in a 3 point game. But when we are losing games by 40 points, there's no sense in even bringing up a 2 minute difference in time of possession...

Addendum: I'm not saying that to be overly critical of you or your analysis. But it is an aspect of this year's team that constantly gets thrown around as if somehow the offensive rhythm is the problem, when the reality is that our offensive rhythm is the only thing that makes these games watchable...

 

[UConnJim]

Okay.

So from your statement above, how is 40 extra yards contributing in any measurable sense to what we are seeing this year? The question is rhetorical, so don't worry about answering it. The answer, of course, is no real measurable difference. You could convince me that 40 extra yards is the difference in a 3 point game. But when we are losing games by 40 points, there's no sense in even bringing up a 2 minute difference in time of possession...

Addendum: I'm not saying that to be overly critical of you or your analysis. But it is an aspect of this year's team that constantly gets thrown around as if somehow the offensive rhythm is the problem, when the reality is that our offensive rhythm is the only thing that makes these games watchable...

The time of possession decline is due to both offense and defense. The offense is going much faster this year as UConn averages 6 plays more per game despite a 2 minute decline in time of possession. The defense is not getting stops to force punts. But, a 40 yard change in yards per game is a pretty big change. If you add 40 yards per game to last year's defense, the defensive rating goes from 65th to 98th.

My main point was Edsall inherited a defense that wasn't very good despite being ranked 65th in yards allowed and they changed the scheme even though the roster could not support the change and the result has been a horrific defense. That said, hidden in the defensive woes is the defense is trying to be more aggressive based on the increase in sacks, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles.

 

[BlueDogs]

My lying eyes say we don't know how to tackle and play 8 -10 yards off of wide-outs that feed on us all day long...but maybe it's just time of possession.

 

[Excalibur]

The time of possession decline is due to both offense and defense. The offense is going much faster this year as UConn averages 6 plays more per game despite a 2 minute decline in time of possession. The defense is not getting stops to force punts. But, a 40 yard change in yards per game is a pretty big change. If you add 40 yards per game to last year's defense, the defensive rating goes from 65th to 98th.

My main point was Edsall inherited a defense that wasn't very good despite being ranked 65th in yards allowed and they changed the scheme even though the roster could not support the change and the result has been a horrific defense. That said, hidden in the defensive woes is the defense is trying to be more aggressive based on the increase in sacks, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles.

I’m a firm believer in the idea that our defense last year was much worse than most believe, but the increase in cumulative statistics (sacks, TFL etc.) could be just as much a product of time of possession as the total yards given up.

 

[Chief00]

Edsall isn’t hiding it - expect numerous transfers out on defense - many of Diaco’s recruits were not D1 guys. They will almost certainly go to low D1 or D2 schools.

 

[Husky68]

We are actually a threat to move the football and put up points on offense this year. Last year we were not.

When we were down 20 last year, other teams tended to take their foot off the gas on offense because they didn't have to worry about us stringing scoring drives together.

Also, our schedule is just all-around tougher this year. Our SOS is 78 this year vs an abysmal 116 last year. Even if we had exactly the same defense as last year, you'd expect defensive regression this season against a tougher schedule.

Agee with all you said, was going to post similar related to last year teams taking foot off gas, especially once BS was out at QB. Also, believe a factor in our 3rd down % not being worse this year is we give up a lot of 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down so teams often have few 3rd downs on their drives. UConn gave up 253 1st downs but only 77 came on other teams 3rd or 4th downs, the other 176 had to be on 1st or 2nd downs.

 

[geordi]

When you have defensive backs that can't outrun a chair, you are forced to give the receiver some room.