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Message: [QUOTE="housekeys, post: 4267331, member: 2379"] I agree with you. No one says, foul up 3 with 20 seconds left. Or 15 seconds, or even 10 seconds left. It has to be around 5 seconds or less, that fouling makes sense. Notice the KenPom data set is constrained between 5 and 12 seconds (IMO it makes a difference, but maybe not - the actual data would help): [I]I chose to use slightly different assumptions than John. I flagged all possessions at the end of the second half or overtime period where a team trailing by 3 took possession of the ball with[B] between five and 12 seconds left[/B]. Then I recorded what happened in that possession (foul/no foul) and whether the game was won or lost by the leading team in regulation, or if the game went to an extra period.[/I] Given there were 6.2 seconds left, for the NCST game, it looks like Geno made a difficult, but right, decision. We won. Kinda moot at this point. [/QUOTE]