Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="auror, post: 4104876, member: 1329"]
As your username puts it, the best way to track performance against expectation against cupcakes is to look at the cumulative spread +/-.

The first game we covered a 34 point by +17 points. The second game we didn't cover a 42 point spread by -7. The third game we covered a 28.5 spread by +24.5 points. So on average we're covering the spreads by 11.5 points with 2/3 covers of +15 over the spreads. The middle spread was insanely high (I took Coppin) because of the Coppin schedule/back-to-back narrative. Coppin is about as good as the other teams but the spread was 7 points higher for no reason. We essentially covered what the spread should have been.

It means we've performed exceedingly well compared to Vegas expectations. Those strongly mirror KenPom and other metrics, which means I expect we'll climb in those as some of the pre-season training wheel weights drop off and when the NET shows up we'll be ranked quite strongly. The numbers say we've played like a top 15 team.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

First name of men's bb coach