D1 Athletics in the age of SARS-COV-2 | The Boneyard

D1 Athletics in the age of SARS-COV-2

TheFarmFan

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Mods, please move to general basketball if this isn't UConn specific enough, but I thought many UConn-only fans may have insights on and interest in this, and times are slow now that we're out of season earlier than usual.

From what I am reading and hearing, my sense is that many D1 sports programs are about to take a great-depression-level hit financially. My sense is that serious cuts are in store for basically everything - staffing, recruiting expenses, travel, etc.

Schools are going to be hurting for revenue losses from:
-Loss of summer residential academic programs, sports camps, and foreigner study abroad programs. Those are cash cows.
-There will likely be a huge decline in foreign enrollment next fall, which is another cash cow, especially for many brand-name state schools. This was already the trend with all the travel restrictions put into place by the current Administration.
-The NCAA paid out half of what it was supposed to. Conferences will too - ad revenue will plummet on conference networks, and there will be no ticket sales revenue (already minimal) for the foreseeable future.
-State budgets are going to take huge hits - assume state schools will see cutbacks.
-University endowments have been blasted in the past 6 weeks.
-Donors have been hit similarly and are and will be scaling back on giving.
-Alumni weekends are being cancelled, which are often buffo fundraising opportunities.
-It is not inconceivable that many fall sports will be played without crowds, and therefore lost ticket revenue there, too. (Many anticipate a second wave of SARS-COV-2 in the fall, and there is no serious likelihood of widespread vaccination before mid-2021.)

There may be some offset from an uptick in school enrollments for those who would rather go back to school than find jobs in this climate, but it's too late for that to make an appreciable difference for the 20-21 academic year. And all of that revenue will likely go to offset other losses in academic department revenue, rather than to athletics.

D1 scholarships are a huge cost to universities, and now they aren't even generating the (minimal) revenue from these students' on-field performance. If you think of it like a business, they are putting out no product for sale but can't furlough any employees. And now some spring athletes may want to come back for a 5th year spring next year, which is a further crunch.

A Change is Gonna Come:
My guess is that a number of D1 athletic programs will have to fold at universities that were already losing a lot of $$$ on athletics. To that end, I have to think UConn's days as a D1 football program may be numbered now?

I would also predict that the era of huge guarantees and buyouts in coaching contracts will be over, and more coaches who are on the firing bubble will be kept at least until their contracts run out. And more internal promotions from assistant coaches.

What are other downstream consequences folks foresee? Curious for others' thoughts, especially those who work in higher ed. These are dark, dark times.
 
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CL82

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To that end, I have to think UConn's days as a D1 football program may be numbered now?

@TheFarmFan said:
To that end, I have to think UConn's days as a D1 football program may be numbered now?
Unlikely. It will impact most the heavyweights whose gate revenue is a major revenue item. Michigan, Notre Dame or Alabama losing a season of home games is nearly an order of magnitude difference compared to the East Hartford faithful.

I get your point, though. 85 scholarships are a lot to carry.
 

UcMiami

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In general, I think you are correct in anticipating a 'new era' in the US and around the world. The worldwide economy is being shattered, and recovery even with incredible levels of stimulus from central governments will be slow. And the stimulus packages themselves will be hard to dig out from.

That said, many will see sport and education as a worthy and important investment in the future. Sport as a way of attempting to create normalcy in a population even as people remain wary of large gatherings. The main revenue stream of college and professional sports remain the broadcast rights.
 
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Mods, please move to general basketball if this isn't UConn specific enough, but I thought many UConn-only fans may have insights on and interest in this, and times are slow now that we're out of season earlier than usual.

From what I am reading and hearing, my sense is that many D1 sports programs are about to take a great-depression-level hit financially. My sense is that serious cuts are in store for basically everything - staffing, recruiting expenses, travel, etc.

Schools are going to be hurting for revenue losses from:
-Loss of summer residential academic programs, sports camps, and foreigner study abroad programs. Those are cash cows.
-There will likely be a huge decline in foreign enrollment next fall, which is another cash cow, especially for many brand-name state schools. This was already the trend with all the travel restrictions put into place by the current Administration.
-The NCAA paid out half of what it was supposed to. Conferences will too - ad revenue will plummet on conference networks, and there will be no ticket sales revenue (already minimal) for the foreseeable future.
-State budgets are going to take huge hits - assume state schools will see cutbacks.
-University endowments have been blasted in the past 6 weeks.
-Donors have been hit similarly and are and will be scaling back on giving.
-Alumni weekends are being cancelled, which are often buffo fundraising opportunities.
-It is not inconceivable that many fall sports will be played without crowds, and therefore lost ticket revenue there, too. (Many anticipate a second wave of SARS-COV-2 in the fall, and there is no serious likelihood of widespread vaccination before mid-2021.)

There may be some offset from an uptick in school enrollments for those who would rather go back to school than find jobs in this climate, but it's too late for that to make an appreciable difference for the 20-21 academic year. And all of that revenue will likely go to offset other losses in academic department revenue, rather than to athletics.

D1 scholarships are a huge cost to universities, and now they aren't even generating the (minimal) revenue from these students' on-field performance. If you think of it like a business, they are putting out no product for sale but can't furlough any employees. And now some spring athletes may want to come back for a 5th year spring next year, which is a further crunch.

A Change is Gonna Come:
My guess is that a number of D1 athletic programs will have to fold at universities that were already losing a lot of $$$ on athletics. To that end, I have to think UConn's days as a D1 football program may be numbered now?

I would also predict that the era of huge guarantees and buyouts in coaching contracts will be over, and more coaches who are on the firing bubble will be kept at least until their contracts run out. And more internal promotions from assistant coaches.

What are other downstream consequences folks foresee? Curious for others' thoughts, especially those who work in higher ed. These are dark, dark times.

Am I wrong or is NCAA tournament money distributed to conferences and not teams? If so, then it has been the P-5 conferences that have received the bulk of those funds. I'd like to see exactly how much has gone to the mid-major D1 schools. They almost always get but one team in the tournament and most of those are eliminated early. The bulk of the money goes to those P5 conferences that get 7-9 teams in.
It would seem to me that if football is cancelled in the fall it will be the power conferences that will be forced to tighten their belts, not the smaller conferences. Football may be the cash cow but it also consumes the bulk of any university's athletic budget. I would guess that their are entire conferences that don't spend on their entire range of athletics what a school like Alabama spends on football alone. And that's fine until the football revenue disappears.

Of course there is no problem at well endowed schools like Stanford & Harvard .... unless their endowment fund takes a major hit from the current investment crash.
 
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I believe that this pandemic is going to change many things about the way our society functions and one of them is that we have to come to the realization that we have spent too much money on sports in general. It has become a cash cow for professional sports and some of the larger college programs, charging outrageous prices for food, beverages, tickets, parking, and many other avenues of income. Those days, I believe, are going to come to and end, not because we don't want to see or go to games but because the economy for the next several years will not allow us to spend six or seven dollars for a hot dog and nine or ten dollars for a bottle of beer. Also, I don't think that it is going to have a great impact on programs like the Uconn women's basketball team because greed has never been the motivating factor and we have always felt like we were getting our "bang for the buck".
 
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If advertisers cut their budgets it will put a crimp into the flow of money into football. And that could turn some college football programs from cash cows into millstones almost overnight.
 

TheFarmFan

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Looks like it's already starting. From CNBC, on media networks seeking refunds for unaired sports:

That has ramifications up and down the supply chain. The NCAA received less money than normal from its broadcast and cable partners, which means individual colleges will also get less TV money than typical for 2020. Distributors will also pay diminished fees for regional sports networks, such as the SEC network or the Big 10 network, which aired fewer games than contracts specified.
 
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For some perspective. Cornell University has estimated that they will have a 45 million dollar budget gap just for the rest of this fiscal cycle (ends June 30). The estimate for the 2020/2021 cycle is around $125 million deficit. Obliviously Cornell does not offer athletic scholarships, so that does not come into play in their calculations. For Cornell, one of the biggest concerns is the amount of financial aid that will be required to keep all current students and those that are accepted into the class of '25 at Cornell.

I would think that power 5 athletic Universities and all State Universities would feel much the same pain in the coming year or two, maybe even more so for the schools that offer out several hundred scholarships annually.
 

TheFarmFan

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News is starting to become public. From ESPN, Athletic directors bracing for financial downturn of at least 20%, survey finds:

Playing games without fans in the stands? Balvanz said the average Power 5 school gets some $30 million in ticket sales. If 85% of that is from football, that's a loss of $25 million.

Athletic directors surveyed by LEAD1 were asked what revenue streams they were most concerned about. Donations and ticket sales received the most votes. Balvanz said a typical Power 5 school brings in around $20 million to $30 million per year in donations, which could also take a hit in a struggling economy.
 
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