Cycles of Our Success (Long)

[Tenspro2002]

Our program has traditionally operated on 3-year cycles, defined by cohesive recruiting classes headlined by star players. Additionally, our success has typically been predictable within those cycles, with a down year the first year (NIT), a very good second year (#2-#4 seed), and an outstanding third year (#1-#2 seed).

Sometimes those cycles overlap, where the end of one cycle coincides with the beginning of another. Those periods lead to the sustained success we've been accustomed to. However, after the 2009 FF run, the predictable nature of these cycles has been thrown horribly out of whack.

Let me walk you through these cycles, beginning with the 1994 season and the start of the Ray Allen Era.

Ray Allen Era (w/ Sheffer, etc.)
1994- Ray's freshman year coincides with Donyell Marshall's junior year and we earn a #2 seed
1995- Ray's sophomore year we have another very good year and another #2 seed, lose to favorite and eventual champ UCLA
1996- Ray's junior year we are one of the favorites heading into the Tournament with a #1 seed

Rip Hamilton Era (w/ Voskuhl, Freeman, Moore, and Jones)
1997- Rip and company's first year, NIT
1998- Rip and company's second year, great improvement, #2 seed, lose to powerhouse UNC
1999- Rip and company's third year, National Champs

Interregnum
2000- Leftover pieces from 1999 struggle to a #5 seed
2001- A lot of new guys, NIT

[You could view 2001-2002 as the Caron Era, but I find it more instructive to view eras as 3-year periods.]

Okafor-Gordon Era (w/ Taliek, Tooles, etc.)
2002- Ben and Emeka's freshman year coincides with Caron Butler's sophomore year and he carries us to a #2 seed and E8
2003- Ben and Emeka's sophomore year, it's really their team, improve throughout the season and earn a #5 seed and a S16
2004- Ben and Emeka's junior year, top-10 all year, National Champs

Williams-Boone Era (w/Hilton, Denham, Rashad, Rudy, Ed Nelson)
2004- I'll point out explicitly here that the first year of this cycle coincides with the end of the previous cycle's NC season
2005- Williams and Boone's sophomore year, this becomes MW's team and he leads us to a #2 seed
2006- Their junior year, we are a title contender and a top-5 team from wire to wire and a #1 seed

Price-Thabeet Era (w/Adrien, Austrie, Dyson, Robinson, Edwards)
2007- Huge new recruiting class never gets it together
2008- AJ takes the reins and guides them to a #4 seed
2009- Like 2006, 2004, 1999, and 1996, we are championship contenders the entire season; Final Four run

Here is where the cycles break down.

Kemba Era? (w/?)
2009- Kemba's first year coincides with the FF run led by last era's leaders
2010- Kemba's second year, but unfortunately muddled by holdovers from the 2009 team, never gets it together, NIT
2011- Kemba's third year, he basically does it all by himself and wills us through a challenging regular season all the way to the championship

Bazz Era? Lamb Era? (w/ Roscoe, AO, Giff)
2011- This group's first year coincides with Kemba's last and they are carried to a NC
2012- Team never gels and limps into the Tournament, losing in the first round

From 1994-2009, the cycles were generally steady and predictable. Down years happened only in the first year of a 3-year cycle, when that first year didn't coincide with the end of the previous cycle. Seasons typically followed well-defined precedents.

From 2010 to the present, everything has been discombobulated. The 2010 and 2011 seasons ought to have played out like 2000 and 2001, but instead we radically underachieved in 2010 and radically overachieved in 2011. Now in 2012, we should have expected a season like 1998, 2003, 2005, or 2008. But instead this group never came together. And it would be a stretch to expect them to contend for a title in 2013 (if we can play, that is), especially with the impending departures of Lamb, Drummond, and possibly others.

The questions I pose are the following:

1) How would you characterize the last ~3 years, in this framework?
2) Is the string of cycles we've experienced in the past now broken?
3) What would it take to return to that predictability?

I have a few ideas, but I'd like to hear yours.

 

[upstater]

Give us a single player that can both penetrate at will and shoot from the outside (har, har) and then I'll tell you about cycles.

This team needs an offensive weapon that outshines what Lamb gave them this year.

I have confidence that Boatright, Shabazz and Roscoe can knockdown that outside shot if they don't have defenders on them. But you can't have the scoring threat living on the perimeter with them. That threat needs to penetrate and the ball has to be kicked back out or passed around.

The offensive spacing needs to open up so that our shooters knock down shots.

I don't see Daniels as that penetrator but I do hope Daniels' shot becomes money over the summer. Is it Omar Calhoun?

NOTE: I expect Lamb to go pro, but I think our frontline will be more more formidable next year.

 

[gibhunter]

We need a point guard like Kevin Ollie, Taliek Brown, Marcus Williams etc. Someone that can run a damn offense instead of standing around and passing the ball around the perimeter. We have two and neither can run the offense.

 

[wpq4elamin]

We need a point guard like Kevin Ollie, Taliek Brown, Marcus Williams etc. Someone that can run a damn offense instead of standing around and passing the ball around the perimeter. We have two and neither can run the offense.

who did we have last year?

as awesome as kemba was, he most definitely was not a true pg and did not always "run a damn offense", unless you forget the numerous 10-30 games during the regular season where he'd take the ball under 10 seconds and attempt to create for himself....

i think boat or bazz (or a combination of the two of them) can be a lot like kemba.... I also think both will be better scoring options next year after another year of working on their games... they both can penetrate, both are decent shooters when left open- essentially all they need is that pull up/midrange game that lamb has, but does not use.... both bazz and boat have a more assertive/aggressive game than lamb- they're just not 6'5" with a 7'2" wingspan.... if jeremy stayed around for next year, he might be more aggressive or he might not be, but he would get a lot more open looks bc boat and bazz will both be more consistent offensive threats...

to answer for bazz making poor decisions and not running the offense, remember that at many points during the year we had inept scorers at the 4/5 and defenses could annoy the crap out of the 3 guards on the floor... if we had a competent low post threat, the offense would look a lot better, run a lot smoother and create more open looks for everyone...

 

[upstater]

We need a point guard like Kevin Ollie, Taliek Brown, Marcus Williams etc. Someone that can run a damn offense instead of standing around and passing the ball around the perimeter. We have two and neither can run the offense.

It's easier to run the offense when Ben Gordon and Ray Allen are on the floor. UConn literally had no creators on offense this year.

Honestly, are people forgetting the constant knock against Taliek "pounding" the ball into the floor instead of passing it around? The very same things were said about Taliek.

 

[caw]

The halfcourt offense was a mess for any number of reasons (in no order):

1. Bigs didn't set solid screens.
2. Bigs either couldn't post or couldn't finish in the post-up
3. Bigs rarely passed from the post-up
4. Wings/Guards didn't cut when the big was in the post
5. Bigs missed a ton of open 15 footers
6. Wings were scared to shoot for half the season
7. Wings couldn't shoot or were incredibly streaky
8. Guards took bad shots (considering time and distance)
9. Guards didn't run screens hard (no change in pace going around the screens)
10. Guards didn't deliver the ball to the cutters on time
11. Guards didn't look for anyone but Lamb off the screens
12. Guards resorted to 1-on-1 too much
13. Guards drove the lane to score, rarely looked for the dump-off
14. etc.

The main problem though was that this UConn team was horrid at getting on the break and even worse at creating offense from defense. Look at the good teams this year (UK/SU) they both create tons of scoring opportunities off of defensive runouts.
They actually ran some difficult quick-hitting plays very well, but then couldn't execute basic plays.

 

[Tenspro2002]

So is our problem the lack of a cohesive group able to grow together under the leadership of a transcendent player?

 

[tzznandrew]

Watching 1998 v. Washington and 1999 v. Duke, the nice advantage was that we'd have Ricky dribbling, and both KEA and Rip running off screens. This year we should have been able to do that with Bazz dribbling and Lamb/Boat running, but (from memory) we didn't run them both, only Lamb.

 

[aceboon]

Watching 1998 v. Washington and 1999 v. Duke, the nice advantage was that we'd have Ricky dribbling, and both KEA and Rip running off screens. This year we should have been able to do that with Bazz dribbling and Lamb/Boat running, but (from memory) we didn't run them both, only Lamb.

Yup, same could be said for last year as well with Lamb and Kemba running off of screens. We should've been doing the same this year with either Lamb/Bazz or Lamb/Boat.

 

[metsfan2323]

I was pondering something today that coincides with this "Cycles" thread. The question is this, during the Calhoun era have we ever had a 4 year player who has not been to at least the Elite Eight? I can't think of any.

Tate George was a Freshman for Calhoun's first year. He was an eyelash away from the final four. The big Kevin Ollie recruiting class followed, they went to two elite 8's. After that class graduated we had the Ricky Moore class, who won a title. I believe Tony Robertson came in the following year and he went to an elite eight. TRob graduated in 2003 and the Rashad Anderson class followed and won a title. The Jeff Adrien class followed the next year and went to the final four in 2009, and last year's freshmen won the title.

Name a four year player under Calhoun who has not made it to an Elite Eight? Who says UCONN basketball is not consistent?

The pressure is on you DeAndre Daniels.

 

[caw]

I was pondering something today that coincides with this "Cycles" thread. The question is this, during the Calhoun era have we ever had a 4 year player who has not been to at least the Elite Eight? I can't think of any.

Tate George was a Freshman for Calhoun's first year. He was an eyelash away from the final four. The big Kevin Ollie recruiting class followed, they went to two elite 8's. After that class graduated we had the Ricky Moore class, who won a title. I believe Tony Robertson came in the following year and he went to an elite eight. TRob graduated in 2003 and the Rashad Anderson class followed and won a title. The Jeff Adrien class followed the next year and went to the final four in 2009, and last year's freshmen won the title.

Name a four year player under Calhoun who has not made it to an Elite Eight? Who says UCONN basketball is not consistent?

The pressure is on you DeAndre Daniels.

I always felt bad for Tony, kid was bookmarked by NC's.

 

[Palatine]

Boatright is clearly a creator. He was a frosh this year and jerked around by the NCAA. He should develop a complete game next year.

 

[Dann]

Kemba Era? (w/?)
2009- Kemba's first year coincides with the FF run led by last era's leaders
2010- Kemba's second year, but unfortunately muddled by holdovers from the 2009 team, never gets it together, NIT
2011- Kemba's third year, he basically does it all by himself and wills us through a challenging regular season all the way to the championship

2011- This group's first year coincides with Kemba's last and they are carried to a NC


Boat era
2012- Team never gels and limps into the Tournament, losing in the first round
2013-come back year contender
2014- lots of upper class talent, huge recruit class with studs(ncaa/apr stuff al gone now) and a new pf=NC

 

[husky711]

Boatright is going to be the next great UConn point guard. He CAN create and CAN run an offense. It was a difficult year all around, given the fact that our bigs couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from 5 feet away at times. That makes guards hesitant to keep feeding the post with the fear that it'll just be a lost possession, as bad as they may want to feed the post to relieve some pressure on the guards. Regardless, I look very forward to Boat's next 2-3 years as I think he is going to be an incredible leader and point guard. He has all of the skills and intangibles that are needed in a leader/PG and I'm confident he will develop into one of the greats to wear a UConn uniform.

 

[mauconnfan]

We need a point guard like Kevin Ollie, Taliek Brown, Marcus Williams etc. Someone that can run a damn offense instead of standing around and passing the ball around the perimeter. We have two and neither can run the offense.

You know what I have to disagree.......of all of those PGs you mention, not one was a lot better than Bazz or what Boat will be. But what they all ahd was big guys and swings who could finish and score........that's the only difference.......Bazz can shoot, Kevin and Taliek could not. Bazz can pass too, but it's to Andre and Alex while Kevin had Ray, Travis, Donny and Taliek had Emeka, Charlie, Josh and Hilton and Marucs had Rudy, Denham, Rashad.............while I agree PGs need to make plays it's a heckuva lot easier when you have people you "Want" to throw the ball to and have confidence they'll make a play than not!!!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If you want to look at anything from a cycle perspective, focus on a junior or senior at point guard. Almost all of UConn's best teams had a junior or senior point, and you frequently saw UConn struggle in the sophomore year of even the best point guards.

1990 - Final 8, BE Champ - Tate George, Senior
1991, 1992 - Pikiell (kinda), mostly Chris Smith - some weird teams here, Smith basically carrying a team of mostly A10 talent.
1993 - NIT - Kevin Ollie, Soph. This team had a multi-year NBA player in Scott Burrell as a senior, and still was very mediocre.
1994, 1995 - Sweet 16, Final 8, great BE seasons - Kevin Ollie as a junior and senior. Would have been two final fours if Donyell hits free throws and someone on Missouri picks up Tyus Edny in the last 4 seconds.
1996 - Sweet 16, great regular seasons - Scheffer as Junior.
1997 - NIT - Ricky Moore as soph
1998, 1999 - Khalid El-Amin. KEA is the exception to this rule. He was the most polished and mature player as a frosh that UConn has ever had.
2000 - second round - KEA as Junior. Was a decent team and would have made Sweet 16 if KEA didn't get hurt against Utah State.
2001 - NIT - Taliek Brown as Frosh.
2002 - Final 8 - Caron carries team on his back, and we get some help by playing Southern Illinois in Sweet 16.
2003, 2004 - Taliek Brown as Junior/Senior
2005, 2006 - Marcus Williams as soph/Junior - team loaded with NBA talent still exited early in 2005. Williams was much better in 2006.
2007 - Price, soph, kinda. No postseason.
2008, 2009 - Price as effectively Junior/Senior - very good seasons. Look what happened in 2008 when Price got hurt.
2010 - Kemba as soph. NIT
2011 - Kemba as Junior.
2012 - Napier as Soph.

UConn, like most teams, leans heavily on its point guard, a position that just takes time to learn. When UConn has an inexperienced point, the best it can hope for is a decent year, like this one, unless there is a superstar like Caron on the team and we get some help in the NCAA's by having some of our better opponents upset before we have to play them. KEA was the exception, and he was an exception individual in many ways.

 

[mauconnfan]

If you want to look at anything from a cycle perspective, focus on a junior or senior at point guard. Almost all of UConn's best teams had a junior or senior point, and you frequently saw UConn struggle in the sophomore year of even the best point guards.

1990 - Final 8, BE Champ - Tate George, Senior
1991, 1992 - Pikiell (kinda), mostly Chris Smith - some weird teams here, Smith basically carrying a team of mostly A10 talent.
1993 - NIT - Kevin Ollie, Soph. This team had a multi-year NBA player in Scott Burrell as a senior, and still was very mediocre.
1994, 1995 - Sweet 16, Final 8, great BE seasons - Kevin Ollie as a junior and senior. Would have been two final fours if Donyell hits free throws and someone on Missouri picks up Tyus Edny in the last 4 seconds.
1996 - Sweet 16, great regular seasons - Scheffer as Junior.
1997 - NIT - Ricky Moore as soph
1998, 1999 - Khalid El-Amin. KEA is the exception to this rule. He was the most polished and mature player as a frosh that UConn has ever had.
2000 - second round - KEA as Junior.
2001 - NIT - Taliek Brown as Frosh.
2002 - Final 8 - Caron carries team on his back, and we get some help by playing Southern Illinois in Sweet 16.
2003, 2004 - Taliek Brown as Junior/Senior
2005, 2006 - Marcus Williams as soph/Junior - team loaded with NBA talent still exited early in 2005. Williams was much better in 2006.
2007 - Price, soph, kinda. No postseason.
2008, 2009 - Price as effectively Junior/Senior - very good seasons. Look what happened in 2008 when Price got hurt.
2010 - Kemba as soph. NIT
2011 - Kemba as Junior.
2012 - Napier as Soph.

UConn, like most teams, leans heavily on its point guard, a position that just takes time to learn. When UConn has an inexperienced point, the best it can hope for is a decent year, like this one, unless there is a superstar like Caron on the team and we get some help in the NCAA's by having some of our better opponents upset before we have to play them. KEA was the exception, and he was an exception individual in many ways.

KEA was tremendous, willed his team to wins no doubt many times. Didn't Bazz and Boat do that a couple of times too? I mean he had Ricky, Kevin, RIP and Jake....all knew how to play and where to be.......who does Bazz and Boat have besides jeremy who cannot be in the same league with Rip???

Again not selling KEA short because he was a true leader and a great Husky......But when Ricky and Rip left how were they the next year?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

KEA was tremendous, willed his team to wins no doubt many times. Didn't Bazz and Boat do that a couple of times too? I mean he had Ricky, Kevin, RIP and Jake....all knew how to play and where to be.......who does Bazz and Boat have besides jeremy who cannot be in the same league with Rip???

Again not selling KEA short because he was a true leader and a great Husky......But when Ricky and Rip left how were they the next year?

The 2000 team was not bad. If KEA doesn't get hurt, I am sure it reaches the Sweet 16.

Napier and the rest of the team were rarely on the same page. Too many double clutch passes and sideline to sideline because he couldn't find anyone. I expect a HUGE improvement by Napier next year. PG is like quarterback for UConn. It is not generally the best player on the team, just the most important.

 

[mauconnfan]

The 2000 team was not bad. If KEA doesn't get hurt, I am sure it reaches the Sweet 16.

Napier and the rest of the team were rarely on the same page. Too many double clutch passes and sideline to sideline because he couldn't find anyone. I expect a HUGE improvement by Napier next year. PG is like quarterback for UConn. It is not generally the best player on the team, just the most important.

Agreed, he can create and with that can score too. With some help from a couple of go-to guys to topn things up be and Boat can become very good players out on the perimeter at some point. They need help to be the players we would like them to be though!

 

[tzznandrew]

The 2000 team was not bad. If KEA doesn't get hurt, I am sure it reaches the Sweet 16.

Annoying "what if": an mediocre 8 seed UNC would have been waiting for them in the S16--a team that went to the Final Four because the 2 and 3 seeds were also out of that bracket.

KEA stays healthy, very good shot at return trip to the Final Four.

 

[benjordan]

Seems to me that all of the good teams had a good pg, clear go-to guy and a clear 2nd banana. This year we were missing the go-to guy.

 

[The Funster]

You have to have a good point guard but you need to have people who can give him a good target. Playing as Wing U, our offense was predicated on low and high screens to give the wing opportunities to either take the three or shake his man on the way to the rim. The low screen made the wing open and then he could catch and shoot. The high screen would help him get to the lane unimpeded.

With a low post offense, the bigs have to a) give a good target for entry pass and ii) catch the ball and 3) finish. Our bigs had difficulty doing all three. Our bigs keep the ball low, don't up fake, don't go up quick and go up soft. They also don't look comfortable playing with a guy on their hip. They need to do this to carve out some space for a good entry pass as well as boxing out.