Creme updated

[Phil]

No change in the top 4

The only change in the top 8 is the replacement of Duke by WV as a 2 seed.

He still includes 8 SEC teams which means three with losing conference records.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Sunday shook up the brackets.

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...ball-sunday-games-had-big-impact-bracketology

Brackets: http://espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

 

[Phil]

Washington has beaten Stanford a 1 seed and Cal a 5 seed, as well as a win over Colorado ranked at the time (arguably, over-ranked) yet he has them out of the tournament? Florida has 18 wins, one more than the Huskies but Florida has a single win over a ranked team, the close win over struggling Kentucky.

 

[Phil]

Sunday shook up the brackets.

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...ball-sunday-games-had-big-impact-bracketology

Brackets: http://espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

I know you are copying the headline, but that isn't my take. He made 34 changes last week and only 28 this week.

This week, of the top 12 teams, the only change was the swapping of WVU and Duke. That's barely a ripple, not a shakeup.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

Washington has beaten Stanford a 1 seed and Cal a 5 seed, as well as a win over Colorado ranked at the time (arguably, over-ranked) yet he has them out of the tournament? Florida has 18 wins, one more than the Huskies but Florida has a single win over a ranked team, the close win over struggling Kentucky.

I'd hate to be on the selection committee. Every choice and exclusion makes people hate you. But you make a good argument, Phil.

 

[NickyNewark]

I hate RU playing in the west but a saving grace is Creme also has WVU,PSU and Cuse out there too.

 

[EricLA]

Hopefully the committee pays zero attention to Creme. Any bracket that puts UCONN as a 1 seed to L'ville's 2 seed in Louisville is a travesty. UCONN should be in Lincoln. Neither Baylor nor L'ville should be their 2 seed. L'ville easily deserves the final 1 seed over SC, even before SC vaulted up to the #4 ranking.

 

[ASweet3781]

Hopefully the committee pays zero attention to Creme. Any bracket that puts UCONN as a 1 seed to L'ville's 2 seed in Louisville is a travesty. UCONN should be in Lincoln. Neither Baylor nor L'ville should be their 2 seed.

Especially seeing Louisville and South Carolina are very similar except one key thing. Louisville will have played UConn 3 times. The best team South Carolina faced, a good but not great Tennessee team, they got blown out. That is a gigantic difference. You would think Charlie would know that.

Charlie Creme ‏@CharlieCreme 21h
I am out of breath just WATCHING @LadyVol_Hoops and @GamecockWBB

He seems to be easily impressed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Washington has beaten Stanford a 1 seed and Cal a 5 seed, as well as a win over Colorado ranked at the time (arguably, over-ranked) yet he has them out of the tournament? Florida has 18 wins, one more than the Huskies but Florida has a single win over a ranked team, the close win over struggling Kentucky.

I hate to spend much time looking at teams for the brackets until the shouting and shooting is all over. Florida did get the two wins over KY plus a road win at Vandy, and I'm guessing the committee will think that's enough even though it has a poor RPI if they look at that tool. Problem for Washington is that even though they got the Stanford win, only Massey gives them a rating even in the 40s, and for the others it is much worse with Nolan even having them at 110, which is very strange. Creme is pretty much going by the ratings.

 

[ndmb]

Especially seeing Louisville and South Carolina are very similar except one key thing. Louisville will have played UConn 3 times. The best team South Carolina faced, a good but not great Tennessee team, they got blown out. That is a gigantic difference. You would think Charlie would know that.

The only currently ranked team that Louisville has beaten is Rutgers twice. South Carolina has beaten Kentucky twice, which is more impressive (note that Louisville also played Kentucky and lost). Losing to UConn shouldn't hurt their bid, but it's not an accomplishment either.

Louisville is also 1-2 vs. Sagarin top 25, vs 2-3 for South Carolina. Against top 50, Louisville is 8-2 compared to 10-3.

 

[Phil]

Hopefully the committee pays zero attention to Creme.

I'm not worried about the committee paying any attention to Creme.

What I am worried about is that Creme isn't trying to put the best bracket together, he is trying to follow the rules that the Committee follow, which means if the committee bracket looks anything like Creme's it isn't becasue they followed his lead, it means he correctly anticipated their decision-making.

I'm concerned that the committee will be forced, per their rules, to make some bad decisions.

 

[Phil]

I hate to spend much time looking at teams for the brackets until the shouting and shooting is all over. Florida did get the two wins over KY plus a road win at Vandy, and I'm guessing the committee will think that's enough even though it has a poor RPI if they look at that tool. Problem for Washington is that even though they got the Stanford win, only Massey gives them a rating even in the 40s, and for the others it is much worse with Nolan even having them at 110, which is very strange. Creme is pretty much going by the ratings.

I missed the second win over KY.

I agree Washington is outside looking in, and I'm probably biased, so I'll have to hope they make it, rather than being righteously indignant if they do not.

 

[ASweet3781]

The only currently ranked team that Louisville has beaten is Rutgers twice. South Carolina has beaten Kentucky twice, which is more impressive (note that Louisville also played Kentucky and lost). Losing to UConn shouldn't hurt their bid, but it's not an accomplishment either.

Louisville is also 1-2 vs. Sagarin top 25, vs 2-3 for South Carolina. Against top 50, Louisville is 8-2 compared to 10-3.

So I'm supposed to believe that an extra win against the top 25 is the equivalent of having to face the best team in the country 3 times? If South Carolina had to play UConn 3 times they would have 3 losses. They didn't and will still finish with the same amount of losses as Louisville will. Advantage Louisville in my book. If Louisville gives us a tight game tonight that is more impressive than squeaking out a 10-3 to 8-2 advantage against mediocrity of the women's game.

 

[UConnCat]

I'm not worried about the committee paying any attention to Creme.

What I am worried about is that Creme isn't trying to put the best bracket together, he is trying to follow the rules that the Committee follow, which means if the committee bracket looks anything like Creme's it isn't becasue they followed his lead, it means he correctly anticipated their decision-making.

I'm concerned that the committee will be forced, per their rules, to make some bad decisions.

Of course, we're forced to assume that the committee's rules are the same as last year since, unlike on the men's side, we've heard nothing about rules for this year's tournament. I did quick search to try to identify the selection committee's membership and chair and found nothing. I guess we'll start hearing things next week after the conference tournaments are done and the countdown to Selection Monday begins.

 

[bbsamjj]

So I'm supposed to believe that an extra win against the top 25 is the equivalent of having to face the best team in the country 3 times? If South Carolina had to play UConn 3 times they would have 3 losses. They didn't and will still finish with the same amount of losses as Louisville will. Advantage Louisville in my book. If Louisville gives us a tight game tonight that is more impressive than squeaking out a 10-3 to 8-2 advantage against mediocrity of the women's game.

But what has Louisville done to deserve a #1 ranking, other than lose to UConn?

Their best wins are over LSU and RU. The one mutual opponent, Kentucky, South Carolina beat twice, and Louisville lost. I think if USC wins the SEC tourney, there is no way they are not a #1 seed.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I'm not worried about the committee paying any attention to Creme.

What I am worried about is that Creme isn't trying to put the best bracket together, he is trying to follow the rules that the Committee follow, which means if the committee bracket looks anything like Creme's it isn't becasue they followed his lead, it means he correctly anticipated their decision-making.

I'm concerned that the committee will be forced, per their rules, to make some bad decisions.

And also that Creme does usually do pretty well at at least getting the right teams in the field, though his placements have varying levels of success. So yeah, the concern is that his final predictions will likely be close to the mark.

As to USCar versus Louisville, Sagarin, Massey, and Nolan all have the Cardinals ahead of the Gamecocks, which may say something.

 

[ASweet3781]

As to USCar versus Louisville, Sagarin, Massey, and Nolan all have the Cardinals ahead of the Gamecocks, which may say something.

And if Creme was really looking at this fairly, when he updated it today, USC should have paid a price and dropped after their very underwhelming performance vs Tennessee. After all Louisville hasn't lost to UConn....yet.

 

[ASweet3781]

But what has Louisville done to deserve a #1 ranking, other than lose to UConn?

Their best wins are over LSU and RU. The one mutual opponent, Kentucky, South Carolina beat twice, and Louisville lost. I think if USC wins the SEC tourney, there is no way they are not a #1 seed.

What has South Carolina done?

Is it Louisville's fault their conference fell apart and they failed to escape this year? I'm sure they tried to schedule good out of conference games but you are at the mercy of other schools. Remember Geno trying to schedule Penn State before we became big? The 1995 Tennessee game happened because UNC backed out.

Last time I checked these Louisville kids beat some pretty good teams to make the title game a year ago. Same team. In Dawn Staley's wildest dreams would her team ever do what Louisville did last year. They can't shoot. Louisville is a more proven commodity than South Carolina.

 

[baggerbob]

The best team South Carolina played was Tennessee which they were just blown out. Notre Dame destroyed the same Tennessee team at Tennessee. South Carolina should have scheduled someone outside the conference. Losing to Notre Dame, or UConn is much more impressive then beating any of the SEC teams.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The only currently ranked team that Louisville has beaten is Rutgers twice. South Carolina has beaten Kentucky twice, which is more impressive (note that Louisville also played Kentucky and lost). Losing to UConn shouldn't hurt their bid, but it's not an accomplishment either.

Louisville is also 1-2 vs. Sagarin top 25, vs 2-3 for South Carolina. Against top 50, Louisville is 8-2 compared to 10-3.

Exactly where you draw the boundary line is always a factor in these comparisons. A Cardinals fan might say that Lville is 7-2 vs the top 35 in Sagarin while USCar is only 6-3. A lot of these differences are pretty small.

 

[wire chief]

I want 2 UConn wins vs Louisville by only 11 to 15 points, which will help Louisville as a #1 seed & put us in Lincoln.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Hopefully the committee pays zero attention to Creme. Any bracket that puts UCONN as a 1 seed to L'ville's 2 seed in Louisville is a travesty. UCONN should be in Lincoln. Neither Baylor nor L'ville should be their 2 seed. L'ville easily deserves the final 1 seed over SC, even before SC vaulted up to the #4 ranking.

I agree with Eric. Despite the geography, UConn should be in Lincoln. Louisville should be a 1 at home.

 

[ndmb]

What has South Carolina done?

We went over this. They beat Kentucky, you know the team that Louisville lost to. Twice.

So I'm supposed to believe that an extra win against the top 25 is the equivalent of having to face the best team in the country 3 times?

No, an extra win is far more relevant because playing UConn, on it's own, doesn't mean anything. You keep dismissing the teams that South Carolina has lost to, but Louisville has not yet beaten a team that is better than South Carolina's worst loss.

 

[Deadrody]

Hopefully the committee pays zero attention to Creme. Any bracket that puts UCONN as a 1 seed to L'ville's 2 seed in Louisville is a travesty. UCONN should be in Lincoln. Neither Baylor nor L'ville should be their 2 seed. L'ville easily deserves the final 1 seed over SC, even before SC vaulted up to the #4 ranking.

Thank you. When I heard that repeated during the game tonight I almost fell out of my seat. There is NO WAY the top team in the country should ever be expected to play a road game in a hostile arena in the Elite Eight. That is flat out insane.

 

[UConnCat]

Thank you. When I heard that repeated during the game tonight I almost fell out of my seat. There is NO WAY the top team in the country should ever be expected to play a road game in a hostile arena in the Elite Eight. That is flat out insane.

Well, under the selection committee's guidelines and principles (which say the overall #1 seed goes to the closest geographic regional) it's likely to happen. It's insane, but sanity doesn't always rule women's basketball.